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Author: Elchin Alioglu
Source: Trend
It is already quite clear that revanchist positions prevail in the foreign policy of Armenia conducted in recent years. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan USA, France and European Union (EU) supports a policy that leads to increased tensions in the region. Revanchism is manifested in Azerbaijan’s attempts to return the results of the victory achieved after the 44-day Second Karabakh War in 2020. These revanchist positions expressed openly or secretly by Armenian politicians and experts reveal that Armenia actually serves the interests of the West.
Pashinyan’s politics: Contradiction of words and actions
Although Nikol Pashinyan tries to maintain the image of “peace-loving” in the international arena, his real policy is completely contrary to this image. Pashinyan often declares that he is ready to meet with the head of state of Azerbaijan, but refrains from taking practical steps. For example, Russia Although President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly tried to organize tripartite meetings with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Pashinyan is delaying these initiatives with various excuses. This shows that Armenia is actually not interested in signing a peace agreement, but intends to prolong the process.
Finally, the tripartite meeting expected at the informal summit of the CIS heads of state held in Moscow did not take place. However, this meeting could be important in terms of resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. As noted by Yuri Ushakov, the official representative of the Kremlin, Western countries, especially the United States and France, are trying to prioritize their role as a mediator in the signing of a peace agreement in the South Caucasus. Y. Ushakov noted that a draft peace agreement was prepared by Moscow, and its main tasks fell on Russia. But now the West is trying to take control of the process. Pashinyan’s preference for the West and not accepting Moscow’s mediation reflects a serious change in Armenia’s foreign policy.
The process of ongoing peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan has recently been in the center of attention of the world community. Although it is necessary to sign a peace agreement that will regulate the future relations of both countries, the unfinished and not yet finalized draft agreement proposed by Armenia is considered unacceptable for Azerbaijan. But why should Azerbaijan not sign such an incomplete agreement and why is Armenia in such a hurry?
The dangers of an incomplete peace treaty
For the successful implementation of any international peace agreement, it is important that it is comprehensive and fair to both parties. The current proposed draft agreement is filled with many open questions and unspecified points. This lays the foundation for potential problems that both Azerbaijan and Armenia may face in the future.
Signing an incomplete peace agreement for Azerbaijan actually puts the country’s future political and military security at risk. Some key issues, including the lack of clear indication of positions on Karabakh, determination of border lines, and lack of specific determination of Armenia’s next steps, prove that this agreement is incomplete.
Modern international experience shows that such peace agreements can later lead to the rekindling and further complication of the conflict. According to various international experts, such incomplete agreements lead to more large-scale conflicts in the future. For example, the incomplete implementation of the Dayton Agreement in Bosnia and Herzegovina in Europe is a clear example of this. The approval of that agreement did not ensure regional stability and led to new political tensions in the following years.
Reasons why Armenia wants to sign the agreement in a hurry
Nikol Pashinan is facing the weakening of his political positions. In the internal political scene of Armenia, increasing pressure against the Pashinyan government and the activation of revisionist forces force the government to speed up the peace negotiations. Radical groups within the Armenian society and tribalist groups such as the “Karabakh clan” make Pashinyan’s position even more difficult. For this reason, the Armenian government hastily proposed a peace treaty in order to appease the political opposition and satisfy the public.
The goal of the Armenian government is to achieve some kind of “political success” and mitigate public discontent in the domestic arena. However, the peace agreement proposed by Pashinyan appears to be more of a short-term political solution than a strategic step to protect Armenia’s interests in the coming years. In this regard, Arman Babajanyan, one of the well-known political figures of Armenia, notes that although Pashinyan’s government “sees the peace agreement as an opportunity, it actually creates political, economic and military threats for Armenia in the future.”
The positions of Russia and Armenia
The role played by Russia in the region is one of the reasons why Armenia is under pressure in the peace treaty issue. Although there is historical strategic cooperation between Russia and Armenia, certain cracks have appeared in these relations in recent years. Although Russia is trying to take an active role in the peace agreement, Moscow’s own interests are delaying the implementation of the agreement. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a statement that “the peace agreement should serve not only the interests of Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also the strategic stability of the region.” The statement in question indicates Moscow’s broader regional view of the agreement and shows that it is having difficulty in bringing Armenia to an agreement.
Yerevan tension
In 2023 and 2024, a far from stable situation was observed in the economy of Armenia. of the World Bank according to data, Armenia’s economic development has been slower than expected, especially as a result of increased military spending and decreased foreign investment. This creates additional motivation for the Armenian government to sign the peace agreement soon. On the one hand, the Pashinyan government needs peace to stabilize the economy, and on the other hand, it is trying to avoid domestic opposition and international pressure.
According to a number of international analysts, Armenia’s desire to hastily sign the peace agreement is more related to internal problems. Paul Stevenson, a well-known political expert from the United States, said that “the Armenian government sees the peace agreement as its way out, but it is not actually a solution to the conflict.” Other experts also support this idea and emphasize that even in the current political situation of Armenia, the agreement is only a tactical step to reduce tensions.
It would be a strategic mistake for Azerbaijan to sign an incomplete and unfinished peace agreement. Such an agreement may threaten Azerbaijan’s future sovereignty and territorial integrity. The draft agreement proposed by Armenia is full of uncertainties at many points, which increases the risks of new conflicts in the region. In addition, Armenia’s internal political pressures are one of the main reasons for the government’s hasty decision regarding the agreement. For the leadership of Azerbaijan, the signing of a peace agreement should be possible only if it is fully prepared and fair for both parties.
The main motives of revanchist politics
One of the main reasons for Armenia’s revanchist policy is that the defeat against Azerbaijan in 2020 opened deep wounds in Armenian society. Territories lost in the war and hundreds of missing people caused great dissatisfaction in the Armenian public. For this reason, Pashinyan’s government is resorting to revanchist rhetoric to maintain public support. This policy is supported especially by the USA and France, because these two countries try to draw Armenia away from Russia and draw it into their sphere of influence.
The military support, the supply of new weapons and the training that Armenia has received from the United States in recent months seem to be part of revenge plans. In 2023-2024, the United States and France are trying to change the balance of power in the region by increasing military aid to Armenia. In response to this, the governments of Russia and Azerbaijan consider these revanchist steps of Armenia as a serious threat to stability in the region. Official representatives of Russia have openly stated that the West’s participation in the arming of Armenia is a threat to the security of the region.
Delaying the peace treaty: tactical games
The fact that Pashinyan’s government is playing tactical games regarding the peace agreement shows that Armenia wants to prolong the process and gain time with the support of the United States and the European Union. This is aimed at Armenia starting new negotiations under more favorable conditions and changing the balance of power in the region. Pashinyan is looking for more support on Western platforms, especially reassessing his relations with Russia. Armenia’s strengthened relations with the European Union indicate that the country is drifting towards the West and that Moscow wants to limit its sphere of influence in the region.
But the role of the West is limited in this process. In particular, the mediation roles played by the United States and the European Union in the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict are weak. Assistant to the Russian President, Yuri Ushakov, spoke openly about this and said that the intervention of the West in the peace process is not accepted by all the negotiators.
Armenia’s armament and the threat of a new war
Currently, Armenia is engaged in purchasing new weapons and military equipment provided by the USA and France. Among the weapons supplied to Armenia in 2023-2024 are various types of missile systems and artillery equipment. Experts believe that with this armament, Armenia is preparing to restore the military balance and enter into a conflict with Azerbaijan. This shows that Armenia is not preparing for peace, but for a new war.
In the context we are talking about, increasing the military potential of Armenia causes serious concern both in Azerbaijan and in Russia. These revanchist steps carried out by Armenia with the support of the USA and the West also destabilize the South Caucasus. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly stated that Azerbaijan’s peace initiatives have gone unanswered and Armenia’s military activities continue.
The discrepancy between Pashinyan’s words and actions
Nikol Pashinyan’s statement that Armenia is ready to ensure communications between the main part of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan is, in fact, nothing more than a diplomatic maneuver. Pashinyan draws the attention of the international community with such statements, but in fact, Armenia creates new tensions in the region. Such tensions show that Pashinyan is trying to sabotage the peace process in the South Caucasus with the support of the West.
Armenia’s revanchist policy and the role played by the West in this process prevent the establishment of peace in the region. Pashinyan’s attempts to maintain diplomatic relations with Moscow, but his loyalty to the West, plunges Armenia into a deeper crisis. Armenia’s revanchism policy poses a serious threat not only to Azerbaijan, but also to Russia’s regional interests.
These revanchist steps of Armenia create a new threat of war in the region and undermine hopes for lasting peace in the South Caucasus.