Author: Elchin Alioglu
Source: Trend
The meetings held at NATO headquarters in Brussels show that Armenia has entered a new and dangerous stage in its geopolitical course. In these meetings, the Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan signed serious strategic agreements with the Military Committee of NATO. This meeting was a logical continuation of the important meetings held by Armenia with its western allies on April 5. The results obtained in those meetings once again confirmed the importance of the steps taken in the direction of strengthening Armenia’s strategic relations with the West.
A. Grigoryan put forward proposals for positioning Armenia as the “new southern wing” of NATO. Among these proposals, the establishment of NATO military bases and deployment of anti-missile defense systems on the territory of Armenia took a special place. He stated that these bases will be ready to receive NATO’s rapid reaction forces. Following these proposals, the United States and France showed open support, but Germany was wary because of the large Russian military presence in the country and Iran’s agency of influence.
Such a strategic turn of Armenia was considered an important step for NATO in terms of creating a balance against Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus. In this regard, Grigoryan compared Armenia’s position with Djibouti, where the military bases of China and the United States are located. Based on the results, an agreement was reached on the establishment of a NATO training center in the south of Armenia.
A. Grigoryan emphasized that Armenia is determined to integrate into NATO and demanded from its allies to exert maximum pressure to force Azerbaijan to make peace according to Armenia’s conditions. He stated that Azerbaijan is a “weak point” especially before the COP29 conference and that this opportunity should not be lost. Information campaigns supported by the Armenian diaspora, the United States and France have not yet produced a large-scale effect. Therefore, Grigoryan suggested that these campaigns should be strengthened at the global level. According to him, as soon as the unfinished peace agreement proposed by Armenia is signed, Armenia intends to leave the CSTO and start close cooperation with NATO.
During the meeting, A. Grigoryan claimed that the Azerbaijani army occupied positions in the border regions of Armenia and said that it is impossible to take back these territories by peaceful means. However, he proposed a plan for the Armenian army to invade territories equal to or larger than Azerbaijan by starting a new war. He claimed that this “victory” would strengthen Armenia’s military and social morale, but at the same time weaken Azerbaijani society and undermine their confidence in the superiority of their military. This step will also serve to test the military equipment received by Armenia from the West in real combat conditions.
Armenia’s plans were met with caution by NATO. Some NATO members expressed concern that the start of a new war would lead to additional land losses for Armenia. However, Grigoryan noted that the Armenian army has built strong fortifications along the border and strengthened its defense lines based on training received from the West.
The situation in Georgia was also an important topic of these discussions. A. Grigoryan said that the Georgian government has close relations with Azerbaijan, and this situation makes it difficult for the West to fully control the region. Therefore, Armenia discussed influencing the results of the elections to be held in the regions where ethnic Armenians live in Georgia. At the same time, the cooperation of the special services of Armenia and the West was also highly appreciated.
In the context we are talking about, Armenia is speeding up its preparations for possible protest movements in Georgia. According to the plans, a new conflict with Russia is expected if the anti-revolutionary political coalition supported by Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili comes to power. A blockade of Russian military bases located in Armenia is also being considered, which will create additional military difficulties for Russia.
Against the background of all these strategic moves, it was announced that Russian influence in Armenia’s security structures is still high and the West is worried about this factor. Armenia’s western allies asked for expert and intelligence support in cleaning up the Russian agency in the security services. In addition, the exchange of intelligence information on the Russian military forces was also discussed.
The meeting once again confirmed that Armenia’s rapprochement with NATO has the potential to further increase tensions in the South Caucasus. These military and geopolitical steps of Armenia can cause serious threats to the security of the region. It is clearly stated that Azerbaijan is aware of the mentioned processes and is ready to take adequate steps to protect its national interests. The resources available in Azerbaijan’s hands allow us to fight against any threat posed by Armenia and its Western allies.
It should be recalled that Nikol Pashinyan sharply criticized the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) from the beginning of 2024. In February, he announced that Armenia had frozen its membership in this organization, and later refused to pay membership fees to the budget of the official Yerevan CSTO. The head of the government justified this step by calling the organization a “soap bubble” and claimed that members of the CSTO, including Azerbaijan, allegedly planned a war against Armenia. During his speech in the parliament in June, Pashinyan announced that Armenia would withdraw from the CSTO, but emphasized that it would do so at a time of its own accord.
Pashinyan’s criticism was not limited to the CSTO, he also made harsh statements against Russia. Last year, Pashinyan, who called Armenia’s dependence on Russia a “strategic mistake”, began to change his country’s geopolitical course towards the West. In this context, Armenia accelerated military cooperation with the West, especially the United States and France. The US and France provide serious defense assistance to draw Armenia into their sphere of influence, which further strengthens the process of Armenia’s alienation from Russia.
Pashinyan’s orientation of Armenia towards the West is also manifested in the military field. Igor Korotchenko, director of the Caspian Institute of Strategic Studies, says that Pashinyan signed a road map with the European Union and the United States on the integration of Armenia into the Western security system. Steps such as the withdrawal of Armenia from the CSTO, the withdrawal of Russian border guards from the country and the closure of the Russian military base in Gyumri are expected in this integration process. Instead, it is planned to deploy French or US military forces. This strategy can continue with the opening of the electronic intelligence center of the US National Security Agency and the American air base in Armenia.
Although this new course of Armenia is considered a serious turning point on the way away from Russia, the transition will not be easy. In the military arsenal of Armenia, Russian-made weapons and equipment dominate. The country’s army is mainly equipped with C-300 anti-aircraft missile complexes, “Iskander” missile systems and other heavy equipment bought from Russia. But Armenia is trying to increase its defense capabilities with the military equipment it bought from the West. For example, within the framework of the agreement signed with France, Yerevan “Caesar” began to acquire self-propelled artillery units and missiles.
In this way, Armenia wants to adapt its army to Western standards. The US is sending advisers to bring Armenia up to NATO standards, and this process is already being funded by Washington. During the visit of US State Department officials to Yerevan, these changes were presented as a “historic event”. But abandoning Russian-dependent military systems is a difficult task for Armenia, because the Armenian army still depends mainly on Russian-made equipment and weapons.
Armenia’s rapprochement with the West, especially the strengthening of military cooperation with France and India, may lead to the emergence of new tensions in the region. The close cooperation between India and Armenia in the military field is developing against the background of Armenia’s confrontation with Pakistan, which has relations with Azerbaijan. India is supplying arms to Armenia in response to Azerbaijan’s close ties with Pakistan and is trying to make Yerevan the center of a new geopolitical axis.
This is part of Armenia’s rapid shift towards the West, and it seems inevitable that Armenia will withdraw from the CSTO and completely cut military ties with Russia in the future.
Taking into account the meeting with NATO, Yerevan plays the role of puppet of “main authors” in the process of formation of new tension in the region.