Entrepreneurs and employees would, once again, be far from reaching an agreement to reach the figure, so the Government would be the one to decide the increase for next year, just as it happened for 2024.
DIARIO DEL HUILA, ECONOMY
The negotiation of the minimum wage for the year 2025 in Colombia is emerging as a complex issue full of tensions, in a context where businessmen, unions and the Government are preparing for a debate that, according to the first signs, could end again without an agreement between the parties, which would lead the Executive to set the increase by decree, as happened for 2024.
Economic context and initial projections
The discussion on the increase in the minimum wage will take place in the midst of declining inflation, which stood at 5.81% annually until September, according to figures from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE). This data generates expectations about the behavior that the increase could have, since, as the Minister of Finance, Ricardo Bonilla, has advanced, the discussion will follow the legal guidelines, but he anticipated that the increase for 2025 would be a single digit, unlike the 12% increase decreed for 2024, which placed the minimum wage at $1,300,000.
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On the other hand, unions and employers have already begun to present their positions. Óscar Cubillos, head of the Planning and Economic Studies Office of the Colombian Federation of Livestock Farmers (Fedegán), pointed out that the unions could ask for an increase of 15.4%, seeking to reach a salary of $1,500,000. Meanwhile, business owners are leaning towards a more moderate proposal, with an increase of 6%.
For Camilo Herrera Mora, founder of Raddar, the challenges surrounding the minimum wage not only lie in the adjustment figures, but also in the low incidence of this indicator in the employed population, given the high level of labor informality in the country. Therefore, he estimates that the increase could be between 7% and 8%.
A political panorama that complicates the negotiation
Fabio Arias, president of the Unitary Central of Workers (CUT), stated that this year’s negotiation will have a more political than economic nuance. “The discussion is going to be much more difficult,” he assured, referring to the lack of consensus that has been observed in previous years. Arias recalled that the Government has had to decree the increase in recent years, due to the lack of agreement with the business sector.
Arias also pointed out that “the business community is not willing to reach any agreement with the Government,” which reflects a political tension that could influence the final decisions. According to the leader, the lack of consensus has led to “open opposition” from the private sector, which could make negotiations even more difficult.
Worker expectations: a double-digit increase
The CUT leader announced that, from the workers’ perspective, a double-digit increase will be sought, emphasizing the need to compensate for the high costs of living. In addition, the CUT plans to include in the discussions other issues that affect the working class, such as the prices of public services, rents and Acpm (diesel). Arias stressed that the increase in rents “should not exceed inflation, especially for those who earn less.”
Critical support for the Petro Government
Historically critical of previous governments, Fabio Arias has expressed conditional support for the current Government of Gustavo Petro. “We are supporting this one,” he mentioned, highlighting that, although there is support, there will also be demands and criticism when it is considered necessary. This position could influence the negotiation dynamics, especially if the Executive decides again to set the minimum wage by decree.
Increase by decree again?
The possibility that the adjustment to the minimum wage for 2025 will be carried out by decree seems to be high. Fabio Arias believes that political positions are more defined than ever, and economic differences have been overshadowed by a political conflict. “I think that, like last year, it will be by decree,” he anticipated, suggesting that the negotiations might not reach a consensus once again.
The next discussion on the minimum wage for 2025 in Colombia promises to be a scene of intense debates, marked by the interaction between economic and political factors. As the Government, businessmen and unions prepare to sit at the table, expectations about adjustment and growing tensions suggest that reaching consensus will be a challenging task. The possibility that the Executive decides on the increase again through a decree, as happened in 2024, remains latent, reflecting the complex economic and political reality that the country is going through.
