“It may be difficult for the Liberal Democratic Party to secure a majority alone”… The biggest issue is the slush fund scandal.[글로벌 포커스]

Prime Minister Ishiba‘s fateful Japanese general election will be held on the 27th… Ishiba dissolves the House of Representatives 9 days after taking office
I aimed for the expected effect of electing a new prime minister, but… The Liberal Democratic Party is ‘hamstrung’ by the illegal slush fund issue.
The opposition party raises the slogan ‘regime change’… “Disbanded to conceal slush funds” Focused attack
Japanese media “Liberal Democratic Party has 30% of influential constituencies”… When a single majority fails, the prime minister’s base is weakened.

《“The possibility of a regime change is small. However, it may be difficult for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to secure a majority on its own.”

Regarding the general election for the House of Representatives (House of Representatives) to be held in Japan on the 27th, the Japanese media is assessing the situation in the middle of the election campaign as follows.

The Liberal Democratic Party is currently struggling in this general election, which depends on the political fate of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has been in office for less than a month. There is even a gloomy outlook that the country could remain in the position of securing the fewest number of seats in 12 years since taking back power in 2012. Above all, Prime Minister Ishiba won a fierce presidential election within the Liberal Democratic Party and was inaugurated as the new Prime Minister, but he is not properly enjoying the ‘convention effect’ of increasing cabinet and party approval ratings. This is because the opposition parties are increasing the level of their offensive by persistently questioning the issue of the Liberal Democratic Party’s factional slush fund.

If the Liberal Democratic Party receives a poor report card in the general election, it is highly likely that the foundation of Prime Minister Ishiba, who is already on the fringes of the party, will be further weakened. This is why interest is increasing in Japan’s general election, the first ‘government selection election’ in three years.》

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba

● The biggest issue is the slush fund issue of the Liberal Democratic Party faction.

“I will deeply reflect on the money issue and failure to report on political funds so that something like this never happens again.”

Iwaki City, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan on the 15th. On this day, when candidate registration began and the election race officially came to a close, Prime Minister Ishiba began his first street speech with the word ‘reflection’.

“China and Russia violate our airspace, and North Korea fires missiles almost every month. “The only ones who can protect Japan’s independence and peace are the Liberal Democratic Party and (ruling coalition) Komeito.”

Prime Minister Ishiba brought up security issues, which are his areas of expertise, and appealed to voters who want strong security to vote.

This election is the first general election to be held in three years since October 2021. The term of office for the Japanese House of Representatives is four years, but they rarely serve the entire term. In Japan, the dissolution of the House of Representatives is within the prime minister’s sole discretion. It is virtually customary to suddenly dissolve the National Assembly and hold a general election at a time when the political standing of the regime is increasing and it is judged to be advantageous to the ruling party.

Prime Minister Ishiba is not much different. The general election on the 27th can also be seen as a card of conversion brought out by Prime Minister Ishiba. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida resigned after declaring that he would not run, unable to recover his approval ratings that had fallen due to the collusion issue between the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification (formerly the Unification Church) and the Liberal Democratic Party and the factional slush fund scandal. In last month’s Liberal Democratic Party presidential election held amid growing public criticism over the slush fund issue, Prime Minister Ishiba ranked second in the first round of voting, then performed a remarkable performance in the runoff, defeating right-wing former Economic and Security Minister Sanae Takaichi. defeated. On the 9th of this month, nine days after taking office as prime minister, Prime Minister Ishiba dissolved the House of Representatives. When a new prime minister is elected, public expectations will rise and the approval rating will temporarily increase.

The biggest issue in this Japanese general election is still the slush fund issue of the Liberal Democratic Party faction. Last December, it was revealed that the hard-line conservative Abe faction, the largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, had created an illegal slush fund and that former and current ministers and party executives were deeply involved, and trust in Japanese politics in general, not just the Liberal Democratic Party, plummeted. Reform surrounding the slush fund issue has emerged as a major issue, and whether it can lead to restoration of trust in politics is a key point to watch in this general election.

● ‘Conservative’ representative opposition party strengthens its offensive

Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party

“As new facts emerged one after another, they disbanded to conceal the slush fund. “Let’s break up with the Liberal Democratic Party’s politics of kickbacks, kickbacks, and kickbacks.”

On the 15th, when Prime Minister Ishiba took the microphone in Fukushima, Yoshihiko Noda (former prime minister), leader of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, made his first speech in Hachioji City, Tokyo. This is the constituency of former Abe faction tycoon Koichi Hagiuda (萩生田光一), former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, who was simultaneously implicated in factional slush funds and the Family Federation scandal. Representative Noda deliberately started his first election campaign here in order to highlight the issue of the Liberal Democratic Party’s slush fund as much as possible.

In Japan, since the formation of the Liberal Democratic Party in 1955, a party other than the Liberal Democratic Party has taken power only twice (for a total of 4 years). The Japanese opposition party has been constantly criticized for ‘lack of ability to take power’ and ‘lack of will to change the government.’ The Japanese opposition parties, which have different ideological tendencies, such as the Japan Restoration Association, the People’s Democratic Party, and the Communist Party of Japan, have been criticized for not being able to properly compete with the large ruling Liberal Democratic Party due to their scattered votes.

But this time the atmosphere is different. The slogan was decided to be ‘regime change is the greatest political reform.’ Also, last month, former Prime Minister Noda, a conservative, was elected as the new representative and began to renew the atmosphere. During the 2021 general election, the Constitutional Democratic Party, which championed progressive tendencies, sought a unification effect by partnering with the Communist Party of Japan, but suffered a crushing defeat as centrist voters who had a strong aversion to the left turned away.

Initially, there was an assessment that he was a ‘boring old man’, but as his track record of serving as prime minister without advocating a progressive stance was revealed, ‘Noda’s representative card’ is appealing to moderate conservative voters with a tendency for stability. Representative Noda emphasized that “the LDP has lost its ability to self-clean itself,” saying, “We are trying to put a lid on the bad smell.” We are also focusing on digging into the slush fund issue.

● One after another, there are predictions that ‘it will be difficult for the citizens to achieve a majority alone’

With about 10 days left before the election, major Japanese media predict a high possibility of a majority for the liberal-democratic-responsive coalition government. First of all, it means that it is possible to maintain the current regime. But if you look inside, the situation is complicated.

Of the total 465 seats in the House of Representatives, the Liberal Democratic Party had 247 seats (53%) before dissolution, and the ruling party, including the ruling coalition Komeito Party, had 279 seats (60%). Prime Minister Ishiba has set out as his official goal to ‘secure a majority for the Liberal Democratic Party’, but the Japanese political world believes that if the Liberal Democratic Party fails to secure a majority (233 seats), the foundation of the Ishiba government may be shaken.

Looking at the current situation, analysis suggests that it is difficult to guarantee that the Liberal Democratic Party will have a majority. In an analysis of the situation through opinion polls on the 17th, the Nippon Keizai Shimbun reported, “Out of all 289 constituencies, the LDP is likely to win only about 30%,” and “there is a possibility that it will fall short of the majority.” On the same day, the Yomiuri Shimbun also pointed out that the focus will be on maintaining the majority for the Liberal Democratic Party alone, saying, “Although the Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party are expected to secure a majority together, there are about 100 constituencies where the Liberal Democratic Party has the upper hand.” The Mainichi Shimbun predicted, “If the Liberal Democratic Party wins in a closely contested constituency, it will be able to maintain a single majority.”

If the Liberal Democratic Party overcomes the slush fund scandal and succeeds in securing a majority, Prime Minister Ishiba will be able to establish himself in a favorable position to run the government in the future. In terms of dynamics within the Liberal Democratic Party, there is a high possibility that moderate conservative forces with dovish tendencies will gain strength. It is inevitable that the hard-line conservative forces, led by the former Abe faction, will have to reduce their power as some lawmakers have been excluded from nomination following their involvement in the slush fund issue.

However, if the Liberal Democratic Party fails to win a majority, it will be difficult to avoid weakening Prime Minister Ishiba’s base. In the worst case, if the party and Komeito cannot secure a majority, the entire Japanese political system could fall into chaos. Although it was difficult to imagine in the system of the ‘Liberal Democratic Party being the absolute number one’ for the past 10 years, it is difficult to say for sure that there is ‘no chance’ of ‘the ruling party falling short of the majority’ in the current Japanese political situation. In this case, it may be possible to maintain power by forming a grand coalition that draws in small opposition parties, but the Liberal Democratic Party’s grip will be further weakened.

A senior member of the Liberal Democratic Party said, “Although the Prime Minister has changed, the public mood toward the Liberal Democratic Party has not changed at all.” He added, “We are facing the most difficult election battle since 2009, when the party was relegated to the opposition party.” The Asahi Shimbun said, “The reason why Prime Minister Ishiba is making remarks in support of candidates excluded from nomination (involved in slush funds) is because there is an underlying sense of crisis that the majority may collapse (due to backlash from conservative supporters),” and “The approval rating is lowered with an attitude of squeezing out slush funds.” “The election strategy on whether to raise the stake was not properly planned,” he criticized.

● Prime Minister Ishiba is in an approval rating dilemma.

Prime Minister Ishiba, who called himself the ‘opposition party within the party’ as a non-mainstream member, has shown an awkward attitude of compromising with reality since taking office, and his approval rating appears to be declining. If you adjust the level of your remarks and policies to appease the party, your approval rating will drop, and if you raise your voice for reform, the party will backlash, putting you in a dilemma where you cannot do either one or the other.

In a public opinion poll reported by Kyodo News on the 13th, Prime Minister Ishiba’s approval rating was 42%, down 8.7 percentage points from the 1st of this month when he took office as prime minister. Regarding Prime Minister Ishiba’s decision not to nominate 12 lawmakers who were disciplined for their involvement in the Liberal Democratic Party’s slush fund scandal, 71.6% responded that it was “insufficient.” Prime Minister Ishiba faces the difficult task of approaching the election by maximizing expectations, which are cooling down faster than expected.

There is a prevailing view that the Constitutional Democratic Party, which suffered a crushing defeat three years ago, will increase its seats. The Yomiuri Shimbun reported, based on public opinion polls, that “the number of seats will increase by about 30 from the current 98.” In this case, they will have the opportunity to emerge as an alternative force in the future and be evaluated for whether they can assume power. However, the general outlook is that it will be difficult to win a large enough number of seats to immediately threaten the Liberal Democratic Party government. This is because Japanese voters still have a negative view of the current opposition party, which suffered a series of misfortunes when it was in power (2009-2012) and failed to respond to the Great East Japan Earthquake (2011).