The No. 1 seed has been a carousel, with Georgia, Alabama and Texas all hopping on for a ride before giving someone else a turn.
Oregon earned the top spot this week after Texas lost to Georgia. Which lost to Alabama. Which lost to Tennessee.
Which means …
Hello … Indiana?!
Ahh, the 12-team College Football Playoff has opened the door to so many possibilities and bracket combinations. The latest of which doesn’t include Alabama.
But how far did the two-loss Tide fall?
This is a snapshot of what the committee might do today — through eight weeks of data. This is not a ranking. This is what the seeding and bracket would look like based on the committee’s projected top 12 for this week — plus a look at eight more teams who could play their way in, and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.
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Byes | First-round matchups
Last two in | First four out
Next four out | Group of 5
Projected 12-team bracket
First-round byes
Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 12 from the CFP committee.
No. 1 seed Oregon Ducks: The Ducks moved up to the top spot in the committee’s projected ranking Saturday night after Texas lost at home to Georgia. Oregon also earns the top seed this week as the projected Big Ten champion and the selection committee’s No. 1 overall team on Selection Day. The Ducks could see Ohio State again in the Big Ten championship game, and this could change, but it’s based on the results to date. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, both Oregon (86.7%) and Ohio State (77.5%) are among the top five teams with the best chances to reach the CFP.
No. 2 seed Georgia Bulldogs: Georgia would earn the No. 2 seed as the committee’s second-highest ranked conference champion. With its win at Texas, Georgia now has the top résumé in the FBS, according to ESPN’s strength of record metric. The average playoff contender would have a 15% chance to go 6-1 against Georgia’s schedule. Georgia’s convincing season-opening win against Clemson is a big reason for that, as the Bulldogs now have two of the best wins in the country.
No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes would earn this seed as the ACC champion and the committee’s third-highest ranked conference champion. Miami further legitimized its playoff position with Saturday’s road win at Louisville, and the Canes remain on track to face Clemson in the ACC championship game. Nobody in the country has a better chance to earn a first-round bye than Miami (43.6%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
No. 4 seed BYU Cougars: The Cougars earned this spot again as the projected Big 12 champion and the committee’s fourth-highest ranked conference champion. What’s separating BYU from Iowa State in the projected committee ranking is its road win at SMU and the head-to-head home win on Sept. 21 against Kansas State. BYU and Iowa State don’t play each other during the regular season but could meet in the Big 12 title game. Iowa State’s best win is against an Iowa team that’s now 4-3.
First-round matchups (on campus)
No. 12 Boise State Broncos at No. 5 Texas Longhorns
Winner plays: No. 4 BYU
Explaining the seeding: This matchup features the committee’s fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which is projected here to be Mountain West Conference leader Boise State. Because Boise State was ranked within the committee’s top 12, its seeding matches its ranking. This also illustrates how Texas could finish as the No. 3 team in the country but can’t be seeded higher than No. 5 because the first four seeds are reserved for conference champions. The Longhorns just slid behind Georgia in the SEC race.
No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 8 LSU Tigers
Winner plays: No. 1 Oregon
Explaining the seeding: After the four highest-ranked conference champions are seeded, the committee then works its way down its ranking and seeds the rest of the teams in the order they were ranked. Tennessee was one of the “first four out” last week but earned a promotion after its win against Alabama (which was knocked out of the bracket). The Vols don’t play LSU during the regular season. This week, they would be the last two teams from the SEC in the bracket, giving the league four total along with Georgia and Texas.
No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Winner plays: No. 3 Miami
Explaining the seeding: This would be a rematch of Indiana’s Nov. 23 game at Ohio State, and the committee does not re-seed on Selection Day to avoid rematches. The reality, though, is that the winner of the regular-season game in Columbus is likely to be heading to the Big Ten championship game, which would change the picture — and the seeding — entirely. This week, Indiana is the Big Ten’s fourth and final team in the bracket. The Hoosiers were listed as one of the “first four out” last week but were bumped up after another convincing win, this time against a respectable Nebraska team.
No. 10 Clemson Tigers at No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions
Winner plays: No. 2 Georgia
Explaining the seeding: If Clemson wins this game, it would be a rematch of the season opener against Georgia. The committee wouldn’t change its ranking to avoid this possibility. Clemson is the ACC’s second and final team in the bracket, and here on the assumption its only loss is to Miami in the ACC title game.
Last two in
No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers
Why they should be worried: The Hoosiers are No. 109 in the country in schedule strength. They don’t have any wins against ranked opponents, and only Maryland (4-3) and Nebraska (5-2) have winning records. The committee will also note a win against an FCS opponent (Western Illinois).
ESPN Analytics says: Indiana was one of the biggest weekly risers in the playoff race, with its chances of reaching the CFP jumping by 17% after the win against Nebraska, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. IU now has the eighth-best chance to reach the playoff (63.8%).
No. 12 Boise State Broncos
Why they should be worried: The most difficult game of their conference season is Friday night — on the road — against UNLV, which could bump Boise out of the playoff conversation with a win. Boise State can overcome the close road loss to Oregon in the eyes of the committee, but it probably needs to win this game — and the MWC — to reach the playoff.
ESPN Analytics says: Boise State has a 47% chance to reach the playoff, the 11th-best of any school and the best among Group of 5 teams.
First four out
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1)
Best win: Aug. 31 at Texas A&M, 23-13
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Navy at MetLife Stadium
Every week is a must-win for the Irish, who have been playing with playoff fire since their home loss to Northern Illinois. ESPN Analytics gives the Irish a 91.1% chance to win on Saturday.
Iowa State Cyclones (7-0)
Best win: Sept. 7 at Iowa, 20-19
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. Kansas State
The Cyclones’ strength of schedule currently ranks No. 80 in the FBS, but ESPN Analytics still gives Iowa State the best chance to win the Big 12 (35.1%).
Kansas State Wildcats (6-1)
Best win: Oct. 12 at Colorado
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Iowa State
Because of the loss to BYU and with six teams having one or zero losses in the conference, K-State probably needs to run the table to get into the Big 12 title game.
Illinois Fighting Illini (6-1)
Best win: Oct. 19 vs. Michigan, 21-7
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Oregon
Illinois has been a much-improved team, but Saturday’s trip to Autzen Stadium will determine if it’s a contender or pretender. ESPN Analytics gives Oregon a 91.5% chance to win.
Next four out
Texas A&M Aggies (6-1)
Best win: Oct. 5 vs. Missouri, 41-10
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s head-to-head win against the Aggies in the season opener remains a separator between the two teams, but if one of them loses, that would change how the committee views that tiebreaker.
Ole Miss Rebels (5-2)
Best win: Oct. 5 at South Carolina, 27-3
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 9 vs. Georgia
The Rebels need to run the table and beat Georgia along the way to get back into the conversation. It’s their last chance to impress the committee with a win against a ranked opponent, and beating Oklahoma on Saturday is no longer as impressive as it once appeared to be.
Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2)
Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Georgia, 41-34
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 9 at LSU
The Tide has to run the table and eliminate mistakes such as turnovers, penalties and sacks to be taken seriously again as a playoff contender. If they can finish as a two-loss team with a regular-season win against the eventual SEC champion (Georgia), though, the conversation could change if they start playing better.
Pitt Panthers (6-0)
Best win: Sept. 7 at Cincinnati, 28-27
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 vs. Clemson
On Thursday against Syracuse, Pitt will play an opponent with a winning record for the first time since its Sept. 7 trip to Cincinnati. That’s followed by a trip to SMU. The Panthers are entering the stretch of the season that will reveal if they can continue their success against better competition.
Group of 5 Power Rankings
1. Boise State Broncos (5-1), Mountain West
Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Washington State
Why they’re here: The Broncos’ schedule separates them from other Group of 5 contenders. A three-point loss at Oregon on Sept. 7 looks even better after the Ducks’ win against Ohio State, and Boise State also has a win against a 6-1 Washington State team. The Broncos also run deeper than their Heisman hopeful running back, Ashton Jeanty. Boise State has the nation’s third-best scoring offense (46.8 points per game), is No. 4 in total offense (523 yards per game) and leads the nation in sacks (4.83 per game).
2. UNLV Rebels (6-1), Mountain West
Best win: Oct. 19 at Oregon State, 33-25
Why they’re here: Saturday’s road win against the Beavers gave the Rebels’ résumé a much-needed boost against a team with a winning record. The committee will appreciate three road wins against power opponents, but Houston and Kansas are a combined 4-10. Friday night’s game against Boise State will determine the Mountain West Conference’s leader in the playoff race, but both the schedules of both MWC schools to date have earned them spots ahead of Army and Navy.
3. Navy Midshipmen (6-0), American Athletic
Best win: Sept. 21 vs. Memphis, 56-44
Why they’re here: The Midshipmen get the slight edge over Army simply because the win against Memphis is better than anything on the Black Knights’ schedule. The committee will have an issue with both Army and Navy’s résumés, as they are among the worst in the country, but Navy is No. 132 in schedule strength and Army is No. 133. Navy is No. 4 in the country with 44.8 points per game. Army is No. 12 with 40.3. If only they’d play each other …
4. Army Black Knights (7-0), American Athletic
Best win: Oct. 19 vs. East Carolina, 45-28
Why they’re here: Army has scored at least 40 points in four straight games for the first time since 1945 — when it won the national title. Quarterback Bryson Daily is having a record-setting season, as his 18 rushing touchdowns are already the most in a season in school history. And they are No. 5 in the country in points margin per game (28). But they’re behind Navy because they haven’t beaten an opponent with a winning record yet.
5. Tulane Green Wave (5-2), American Athletic
Best win: Sept. 28 vs. South Florida, 45-10
Why they’re here: The Green Wave’s two losses came to K-State, which could win the Big 12, and on the road against Oklahoma during extenuating travel circumstances surrounding a local storm that displaced the team that week. It doesn’t help that the Sooners have been on a downward spiral, and two-loss Tulane needs some statement wins to compensate for those losses, but they will have a chance in November with games against Navy and Memphis. If Tulane runs the table and wins with style en route to the AAC title, it could be considered.
Also watch: Louisiana-Monroe, Liberty, Memphis