The second rainy season of the year is expected in November, especially in the Andean region and the eastern Caribbean.
DIARIO DEL HUILA, CONTEXT
In November, Colombia will face the second rainy season of the year, with special impact on the Andean region and the eastern Caribbean. The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) has issued a climate forecast for the last months of 2024, warning of rainfall above normal in much of the national territory, with probabilities of between 45% and 70% of rainfall above the historical average. This has put several regions on alert, and the rainy season is expected to impact different sectors, such as agriculture, transit and infrastructure.
Weather forecast: Above average rainfall
IDEAM reports that much of the country will experience above-normal rainfall during this second rainy season. Areas with the highest probability of heavy rain include the Andean region and the eastern Caribbean, where precipitation volumes tend to increase noticeably at this time of year. Predictions indicate that November will bring a significant increase in rainfall, especially in the departments of Huila, Cauca and Nariño.
In the Pacific region, known for its humid climate throughout the year, abundant rains will continue, while in the Orinoquía region a gradual reduction in rainfall volumes is expected, although significant rainfall will persist in the plain foothills.
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Weekly Forecast Summary: October 21-25
The IDEAM, in its weekly report corresponding to the week of October 21 to 25, foresees the following weather conditions:
– Friday, October 25: Heavy rainfall is expected in the Pacific region, especially in the north and east of Chocó, the southeast of Valle del Cauca, Cauca and the north of Nariño. In addition, rain is expected in areas of northeastern Vichada and eastern Guainía. For the Caribbean region, the forecast indicates moderate rains in sectors of Córdoba, northern Magdalena, Cesar and Bolívar. In the Andean region, the heaviest rains will be recorded in the west of Antioquia, the Coffee Region, the northwest of Cundinamarca, the west of Boyacá, the north and south of Santander, and the east of Norte de Santander. Light rains are also expected in areas of the foothills of Meta and Caquetá.
Rain and alert zones
Luis Alfonso López Álvarez, head of the IDEAM Forecast Service Office, highlighted that the recent rains are characteristic of the season, although in some areas rainfall above the October average has been recorded. Currently, the country is in average rainfall figures, but IDEAM has issued red and orange alerts in regions susceptible to landslides, especially in the Andean region and the Caribbean region.
With a cut-off date of October 22, 76 municipalities distributed in 18 departments are under red alert, which implies the need to take immediate preventive actions. In addition, 195 municipalities are on orange alert, requiring constant monitoring to avoid critical situations. The alerts are issued based on monitored data from areas that have recorded constant rains, especially in the last ten days, and could decrease if the hydrological phenomenon is reduced in critical points.
Impact and recommendations
IDEAM has urged local authorities and the population to be attentive to forecasts and alerts during these months, since climatic behavior could generate significant impacts on agricultural activities, traffic and infrastructure in the regions affected by the rains. The recent overflows in the Venta Larga stream, in the municipality of Pacho (Cundinamarca), and in the La Elvira stream, in the municipality of Las Estrellas (Antioquía), have caused numerous material damages, exemplifying the risks that may arise during this season. .
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