Even ahead of the US presidential election, China remains in check on semiconductors
China’s efforts to become self-reliant continue to overcome the technological siege
The technological gap between Korea and China is large… The hegemonic structure may change
Although the United States is approaching the presidential election, it is not slowing down its checks on China’s advanced technology development. In fact, regardless of the outcome of this presidential election, the United States is seen as determined not to loosen its grip on public regulation.
According to the industry on the 29th, the US Treasury Department announced the final rule on the previous day (local time), ‘Executive Order in Response to US Investment in Specific National Security Technologies and Products of Countries of Concern’. The detailed rules were released following the ▲ANPRM (Advance Notice of Rulemaking) in August 2023 and ▲NPRM (Notice of Rulemaking) released by the US administration previously in July of this year.
The final rule, which goes into effect on January 2 next year, prohibits Americans from trading certain technologies or products that could pose a threat to national security with individuals in “country of concern.” The United States designated China, Hong Kong, and Macau as countries of concern in August last year.
The subjects of regulation include ▲advanced semiconductor design, manufacturing, and packaging ▲quantum computing ▲AI (artificial intelligence) systems. The goal is to suppress China’s development of cutting-edge technology and prevent it from being ahead of the United States in terms of military and technology.
◆China is making progress in securing cutting-edge technologies such as 3 nanometers by breaking through the export regulation network
The United States already operates advanced semiconductor technology control standards for China, but controversy is rising over its effectiveness.
Since October 2022, Chinese companies have been subject to U.S. export controls on logic chips of 14 nanometers (nm, 1/1 billionth) or less, DRAM of processes of 18 nanometers or less, and NAND-related technologies and equipment of 128 layers or more. However, China has broken through this control network and made progress in developing advanced technologies in some fields.
A clear example is the fact that Chinese smartphone manufacturer Xiaomi has recently successfully completed the design of a 3-nano smartphone chip and is preparing for mass production. It is also noticeable that TSMC’s cutting-edge foundry technology was used in Huawei’s artificial intelligence semiconductor ‘Ascend 910B’.
In this situation, questions are growing about the effectiveness of U.S. government regulations. In the U.S. political world, voices are growing louder that loopholes in China’s regulations must be addressed.
However, the fact that the United States announced regulations on China even with only a week left before the presidential election on the 5th of next month shows that the competition for semiconductor hegemony between the United States and China is a difficult task to solve.
Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML, a Dutch semiconductor equipment company under pressure from the United States, said in a recent media interview, “Looking at the geopolitical situation, I think it is clear that the United States will continue to put pressure on its allies for more restrictions.” “I do it,” he said.
◆Korea-led memory is also within reach… “The hegemony between the U.S. and China may change.”
The conflict between the US and China is also having an impact on Korean semiconductor companies.
In particular, competition with Korean semiconductor companies is intensifying as U.S. regulations encourage China’s semiconductor independence.
According to the industry, there is an analysis that China is replacing Korean products as it seeks to become independent in legacy (old) semiconductors. According to the Korea International Trade Association’s export and import statistics, China’s share of Korea’s memory exports from January to September this year was 37.9%, falling below 40% for the first time in 12 years.
On the other hand, Chinese DRAM company CXMT’s market share based on bit production is expected to increase from 4% this year to 9% next year.
It is said that YMTC, a Chinese NAND company, is already ahead of Korean companies in stacking technology. YMTC’s production capacity next year is expected to increase by 7% compared to this year.
Some say that Chinese companies will still face great difficulties in developing technology due to U.S. regulations, but this cannot be assured.
Currently, CXMT is pursuing a conversion to the 17-nano process, and its goal is to ship HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) samples led by Korean companies in 2026. Currently, the DRAM technology used to manufacture the latest HBM is at the 10-nano level 5th generation (12-13 nanometer) level. There is still a large technology gap between Korea and China, and securing the technology is not easy.
Nevertheless, the Information Technology Innovation Foundation (ITIF), a U.S. scientific think tank, said in a report titled ‘China Rapidly Emerging as an Innovative Country Leading High-Tech Industries’ published last month that “China will become the global innovation leader in most high-tech industries within 10 to 20 years.” “There is a high possibility that it is in or very close to it,” he warned, adding, “Within a few decades, we could end up in a world where China imposes export restrictions on the United States.”
[서울=뉴시스]