Time.news – Italy is living a favorable moment, thanks “to the certainties provided by Europe” and “the abundance of public and private financial means”, but the recovery it will not be enough to heal the damage that the pandemic crisis has done to the economy. This is the warning launched by the Prime Minister, Mario Draghi at the solemn gathering for the closing of the academic year of the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei.
“The current forecasts of the Commission indicate an increase in GDP this year in Italy and in the EU of 4.2%. I believe that these estimates will be revised upwards, even significantly”, reiterated the premier. “Consumer and business confidence is returning. The ECB has indicated that it intends to maintain favorable financial conditions. As uncertainty recedes, the expansionary effect of monetary policy will gain even more strength. Families and businesses are more willing to borrow and invest when the future is safer. “
“However, this recovery is not enough to repair the damage caused by the health crisis – he added – we must achieve higher and more sustainable growth rates than in the recent past, to help not only those who did not have a job before the pandemic, but also who has lost it in recent months and who could lose it in the next few years “.
There were no alternatives to the drastic restrictions imposed by governments – not only the Italian one – to deal with the pandemic, added Draghi, according to which the economic crisis triggered by the measures decided to stop the virus is unprecedented. it was an inevitable consequence of health policy which had to take precedence over everything.
“The economic crisis that began last year is unprecedented in recent history. It was a recession largely caused by conscious decisions by governments. To prevent a catastrophic spread of the virus we had to impose restrictions that led to the closure of many sectors of the economy “, said the Prime Minister, speaking at the solemn meeting for the closing of the academic year of the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei. “We had no alternatives – he added – the protection of health and the protection of the economy they were not conflicting goals. The high circulation of the virus and the risk of the collapse of the hospital system made it unthinkable to restart consumption and investments. Health policy had to have priority “,
Ready to intervene
“It is very likely that, for various reasons, this phase of public and private debt growth is not yet over. We must face the emergence of new and dangerous variants of the virus. a worsening of the pandemic such as to cause damage to the economy of the country “added Draghi.
“For Italy, this is a favorable moment. The certainties provided by Europe and the choices of the government, the ability to overcome some of what were considered identity barriers, the abundance of public and private financial means these are exceptional circumstances for businesses and households who will invest capital and savings in technology, training, modernization “.
“But it is also the right moment to combine efficiency with equity, growth with sustainability, technology with employment. It is a moment in which the taste for the future prevails. Let’s live it fully, with determination and with solidarity”, he said.
Debt can strengthen or make you more fragile
“Debt can strengthen us, if it allows us to improve the well-being of our country, as it did during the pandemic. It can make us more fragile if, as has too often happened in the past, resources are wasted” said the premier “. Debt can unite us if it helps us reach our goal of sustainable prosperity, in our country and in Europe. But debt can also divide us, if it raises the specter of moral hazard and budget transfers, as it did after the financial crisis “, he added.
One “reason for maintaining an expansionary fiscal policy is to help growth,” says Draghi “.the Italian economy has operated below its potential for most of the last decade there is therefore plenty of room to use expansionary fiscal policies before creating inflationary pressures. We have already done so in these two years: in 2020, the Italian deficit reached 9.5% of GDP, and this year, according to the Commission, we will reach 11.7% “.
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