Likely voters in Georgia divide 48% for Trump to 47% for Harris, and in North Carolina, Harris stands at 48% to Trump’s 47%. Results are within the margin of error in both states, suggesting no clear leader in either contest.
Both states are hotly contested in this year’s presidential election. North Carolina, which narrowly supported Barack Obama in 2008, has voted Republican in the past three presidential elections. In 2020, however, it was the state where Trump earned his slimmest margin of victory. Joe Biden defeated Trump in Georgia by less than 1 percentage point four years ago, becoming the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Broad majorities of Trump backers in both states – 81% in Georgia and 75% in North Carolina – say their vote is primarily about support for the former president, rather than opposition to Harris. That’s similar to the share of Trump backers saying the same in other battleground states.
In a contrast to the razor-thin race for the White House, Democrat Josh Stein holds a clear advantage in the race for North Carolina governor, leading scandal-plagued Republican Mark Robinson, 53% to 37%, among likely voters. That’s due to significant ticket-splitting in favor of the Democrat down ballot: 77% of Trump voters in the state say they’re backing Robinson in the gubernatorial race, with 10% backing Stein and another 12% saying they wouldn’t vote for either of the major candidates. Nearly all of Harris’ supporters in the state, 96%, say they support Stein.
While the polls find similar political environments in Georgia and North Carolina overall, there are some significant differences.
Biden gets similarly low ratings for his job performance in each state: 39% of likely voters in North Carolina, and 37% in Georgia, say they approve. But the White House gets notably lower ratings for its response to Hurricane Helene in the Tar Heel State. Forty-two percent of likely voters in Georgia, but just 36% in North Carolina, say they approve of the way the Biden administration has handled the federal government’s response to Hurricane Helene, with sizable shares of likely voters in both states saying they are unsure how they view the response to the storm (17% in North Carolina, 14% in Georgia). Views of the administration’s storm response generally run parallel to partisanship, but still, 11% of Harris supporters in North Carolina say they disapprove of the way the Biden administration handled the response to Helene. In Georgia, the share of Harris backers disapproving stands at just 5%.
In both states, Harris leads among Black likely voters (84% to 13% in Georgia, 78% to 19% in North Carolina) and voters with college degrees (55% to 39% in Georgia, 53% to 42% in North Carolina). White college graduates split about evenly in both states (50% Harris to 47% Trump in North Carolina, 48% Trump to 46% Harris in Georgia). Trump holds a commanding lead, 81% to 15%, among White voters without college degrees in Georgia. He leads that group by a less overwhelming margin, 65% to 31%, in North Carolina.
In North Carolina, the poll finds Trump leading by 7 points among men and Harris ahead by 9 points among women. In Georgia, men favor Trump by the same margin, but women are closer to evenly split (49% favor Harris, 47% Trump). That close margin among women in Georgia is due to a massive gap between White women (66% Trump to 30% Harris) and women of color (79% Harris to 15% Trump). In both states, Harris holds a broad lead among voters who say they live in a city or urban area, with Trump holding a similarly broad advantage in rural areas. But suburban voters in Georgia are split, 48% Harris to 47% Trump, while suburban voters in North Carolina favor Harris, 53% to 42%.
Voters in these two states are among the most likely across battleground states to say that candidates’ positions on the issues are driving their choices more than their leadership traits and approach to the presidency – 58% in Georgia and 56% in North Carolina say issues are more critical to their choice.
Likely voters in both states give Trump the advantage over Harris on trust to handle immigration (by a 15-point margin in Georgia and a 12-point margin in North Carolina), foreign policy (by a 9-point margin in both states) and the economy (by an 8-point margin in both states). They give Harris the lead on trust to handle abortion and reproductive rights (by a 15-point margin in North Carolina and a 13-point margin in Georgia), with voters in both states closely split on which candidate they more trust to protect democracy.
Voters in Georgia say by an 8-point margin that they see Harris, not Trump, as the candidate who cares more about people like them, while voters in North Carolina are more closely divided. In both states, Harris is seen as the more honest and trustworthy candidate, while Trump holds a slim advantage as the candidate better able to bring needed change.
Roughly 8 in 10 likely voters in each state say they’re at least somewhat confident that votes in their state will be accurately cast and counted in this year’s election. In both states, that rises to roughly 9 in 10 among Harris supporters, with 74% of Trump voters in North Carolina and only two-thirds of the Republican’s backers in Georgia saying the same.
Interviews were conducted October 23-28, 2024, online and by telephone with registered voters, including 732 voters in Georgia and 750 in North Carolina. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results among likely voters in Georgia have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points; it is 4.5 points among likely voters in North Carolina.
Time.news Editor (TNE): Welcome to our interview today! We’re diving into the current political landscape in Georgia and North Carolina, and how it’s shaping the upcoming presidential election. Joining us is Dr. Emily Carter, a political analyst and expert in Southern electoral trends. Dr. Carter, it’s great to have you!
Dr. Emily Carter (DEC): Thank you for having me! I’m excited to discuss the dynamics unfolding in these two crucial states.
TNE: Let’s start with the polls. It’s reported that likely voters in Georgia are closely split at 48% for Trump and 47% for Harris, while in North Carolina, Harris is slightly ahead at 48%. What do these numbers tell us about this election cycle?
DEC: These margins suggest a highly competitive landscape in both states. The fact that the results fall within the margin of error means that neither candidate can claim a definitive lead. This indicates that voter engagement is critical, and both campaigns will need to ramp up their efforts to sway undecided voters.
TNE: It’s interesting to note that North Carolina has a history of voting Republican, while Georgia has recently shifted towards the Democrats. Can you explain how the historical context impacts current voter sentiment in these states?
DEC: Absolutely. North Carolina’s political trajectory has been somewhat erratic, having voted for Obama in 2008 and then leaning Republican in subsequent elections. In contrast, Georgia’s shift towards Democrats in 2020, with Biden’s narrow victory, indicates a significant demographic change and evolving political sentiments. The historical context creates a unique battleground where both parties can assert claims of momentum, making voter sentiment vital in 2024.
TNE: Regarding Trump’s supporters, we see that a significant majority of them view their vote as a show of support for Trump rather than opposition to Harris. What implications does this have for the Harris campaign?
DEC: That’s a critical insight. It suggests that Trump’s base is solidified and more motivated by loyalty rather than opposition to Harris. For Harris, the focus must be on outreach to swing voters and those who might support her for her policies rather than out of animosity towards Trump. Strengthening her appeal among moderates and independents could be key.
TNE: Additionally, there’s a notable contrast in the gubernatorial race in North Carolina where Democrat Josh Stein holds a clear lead over Republican Mark Robinson. What can explain this ticket-splitting behavior among voters?
DEC: The stark contrast in candidates’ profiles plays a significant role. Stein’s lead suggests that while there may be strong support for Trump, voters might not be aligning entirely with Republicans down the ballot, especially amid concerns around Robinson’s scandals. This ticket-splitting points to an interest in individual candidates rather than strict party allegiance, reflecting nuanced voter attitudes.
TNE: Shifting gears to the Biden administration’s performance – it seems to be underwhelming in both states, particularly regarding its handling of Hurricane Helene. How much does this dissatisfaction influence the presidential race?
DEC: Voter approval of the Biden administration is crucial, especially as these states weigh their options in the presidential contest. The dissatisfaction over hurricane response reflects broader anxieties about the administration’s effectiveness, which can sway moderate voters. If Harris can turn this narrative around and distance herself from Biden’s perceived shortcomings, she might invigorate her support base.
TNE: Shifting demographics are evident, particularly with racial divides in voting patterns. Can you elaborate on the implications of this divide, especially among urban and suburban voters?
DEC: Certainly! Harris’s significant lead among Black voters represents a critical base for her campaign, while Trump’s dominance among White voters without college degrees showcases an enduring partisan divide. Suburban voters are becoming increasingly influential. For instance, Harris has a stronger showing among suburban voters in North Carolina, which could signal a shift in voter demographics. Campaign strategies will need to adapt accordingly by emphasizing issues that resonate with these diverse groups.
TNE: Very insightful! with the election only months away, what do you believe the candidates need to focus on to ensure they capture the crucial votes in these two states?
DEC: Candidates in both parties need to focus on key issues that matter most to voters. For Trump, emphasizing trust on economic and immigration issues can help galvanize his base. For Harris, the focus on abortion rights, along with outreach to urban and minority voters, is crucial. Both candidates must not only motivate their supporters but also work to sway undecided voters who prioritize policy over personality in their voting decisions.
TNE: Thank you, Dr. Carter, for sharing your expertise with us today. It’s clear that Georgia and North Carolina are set to play pivotal roles in the upcoming election!
DEC: Thank you for having me! It’s going to be an exciting election cycle, and I’m looking forward to seeing how it unfolds in these battleground states.