Despite these advantages, Russia has so far captured less than a quarter of Ukraine’s territory, while suffering more than 600,000 casualties, he said.
“The Russian Navy is no longer even a significant factor in the war. The Russian Air Force, on the other hand, has failed in its two most important tasks – gaining air superiority and cutting off supply routes from Poland to Ukraine. Failure after failure. They finally took Avdiyivka in February, but now in October , they still haven’t taken Pokrovsk, which is only 60 kilometers away,” the retired lieutenant general told LETA during the “Riga Conference” security and foreign policy forum.
Hodges emphasized that defeating the masses is possible with precision that allows for strikes on command posts, logistics and artillery.
“If you destroy these objects, then the numerical advantage becomes insignificant, because the masses need leadership, they need transport to deliver the ammunition, and also artillery, because they bomb and bomb and then send the ‘meat’. Therefore, weapons are needed that able to deliver precision strikes at long range. They are able to break Russia’s ability to attack,” Hodges said.
He believes that the wave-like ruptures of the Donbas front line will continue, however, he pointed out that the Russians are moving forward very slowly and “thousands of people are being killed for small towns like Vukhledar or Bakhmut, which are located in the very east of Ukraine, and which are quite difficult to call strategically important “.
“As long as the Russians can keep up massive bombardment followed by massive attacks, they will have gradual success. However, I don’t see any way they will be able to break through the front line and, for example, attack all the way to the Dnipro,” Hodges said.
Hodges is convinced that Russia is currently facing serious problems, as evidenced by the involvement of North Korean soldiers. He believes that it is still too early to judge the military significance of this step, because it is not yet clear how many forces will be involved – perhaps tens of thousands more are waiting to be sent to Ukraine.
“But it should be noted that these soldiers do not have any combat experience, they are not experienced veterans of any other war. I have no idea about the agreement that has been concluded between Putin and [Ziemeļkorejas līderi] Kim Jong-un, but I think they will perform more of a “cannon fodder” function, thus saving the lives of Russian soldiers. However, if there are thousands of them, this will cause a problem. Because it will add more bodies to the Russian approach to warfare,” Hodges said.
The involvement of the North Koreans, he says, demonstrates that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is afraid of his own people.
“He certainly does not want to mobilize young men in Moscow and St. Petersburg, because that would inevitably lead to funeral processions in the streets of those cities, which would cause him political problems,” Hodges said.
The US lieutenant general also assessed the Ukrainian invasion of Russian territory as an important operation, as it changed the way the war was portrayed for a while – as opposed to the narrative that Russia’s victory was inevitable and that they could not be defeated, because three months after the start of the operation, Ukrainian forces were still on Russian territory .
Asked about the meaning of the term “Victory of Ukraine”, the former commander of the US forces in Europe emphasized that it does not depend only on the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky or someone else, because “we are also not like spectators in a football match – we all have a part in the victory of Ukraine over Russia”. He pointed out that both the USA, Great Britain, Germany, our Baltic allies and many others are interested in how this war will end, what will be the victory of Ukraine.
Hodges explained that Ukraine’s victory will consist of several elements.
First of all, it is the full restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty over its territory within the 1991 borders, including Crimea. Second, holding Russia accountable for war crimes committed. Third, the thousands of Ukrainian children who were abducted and scattered throughout Russia must be returned home. The fourth element is Ukraine’s NATO member status, as there are no other security guarantees, he said.
The fifth element, on the other hand, is the reconstruction plan for Ukraine – reconstruction of infrastructure and residential buildings, opening of sea ports and all other necessary things, which will require hundreds of billions of euros, explained the general.
He expressed his pleasant surprise that the “victory plan” presented by Zelensky did not only talk about military affairs, but also about economy and diplomacy.
“Also, he wisely talks about the differences between the invitation to join NATO and the admission itself, because the invitation does not mean admission – it can happen only a year, two or even several years later. You remember how long Sweden had to wait for admission. Distinguishing these two statuses, the prospect of an official invitation being extended to Ukraine — not just the oft-repeated ‘we believe you’ll be accepted one day’ – would send a clear signal,” Hodges said.
Title: An In-Depth Perspective on the Ukraine-Russia Conflict: An Interview with Retired Lieutenant General Hodges
Interviewer (Time.news Editor): Good afternoon, General Hodges. Thank you for joining us today. Your insights into the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia are invaluable. To start, could you highlight the current status of the conflict from your perspective?
General Hodges: Good afternoon! Of course. As of now, despite Russia’s initial advantages, they have only managed to capture less than a quarter of Ukraine’s territory. They’ve faced staggering losses, with more than 600,000 casualties reported. This underscores the challenges they are facing on the battlefield.
Interviewer: That’s an astonishing figure. You mentioned in a recent forum that both the Russian Navy and Air Force have failed in critical areas. Could you elaborate on that?
General Hodges: Absolutely. The Russian Navy has diminished into a non-factor in this conflict, and their Air Force has not met its fundamental objectives. They were supposed to achieve air superiority and disrupt supply routes from Poland to Ukraine, but they failed on both accounts. Despite capturing Avdiyivka in February, they still haven’t taken Pokrovsk—only 60 kilometers away—by October. It speaks volumes about their operational effectiveness.
Interviewer: What do you think is the key to overcoming the numerical advantage that Russia possesses?
General Hodges: The key lies in precision strikes. If we focus on destroying command posts, logistics hubs, and artillery, the numerical advantage of the Russian forces becomes inconsequential. Masses of troops require leadership, transport, and artillery. Effective long-range weapons can disrupt Russia’s ability to sustain its assaults.
Interviewer: You also mentioned that the current wave-like ruptures of the Donbas front line are expected to continue. What does that signify for the conflict moving forward?
General Hodges: It indicates that while Russia may achieve localized advances through sheer bombardment, the cost in human life is staggering. They are sacrificing thousands for towns like Vukhledar and Bakhmut, which don’t hold significant strategic value in the grand scheme. I don’t foresee any breakthrough that allows them to advance towards major targets like Dnipro.
Interviewer: Fascinating. There have been reports about the involvement of North Korean soldiers on the Russian side. What are your thoughts on this development?
General Hodges: Ah, the enlistment of North Korean soldiers is quite telling. It demonstrates Russia’s desperation. However, we must remember that these troops lack combat experience. They could end up as “cannon fodder,” serving primarily to save the lives of seasoned Russian soldiers. If they do deploy tens of thousands, it may create complications, but their effectiveness is still a big question mark.
Interviewer: What does this say about President Putin’s concerns regarding domestic support?
General Hodges: Clearly, he is apprehensive. He does not wish to mobilize young men from major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, as that would result in funeral processions that would spark political unrest. This move shows he’s aware of the potential backlash from his own populace.
Interviewer: Shifting to the Ukrainian side, how do you view their recent operations in Russian territory?
General Hodges: The Ukrainian operations on Russian territory have been significant. They demonstrate that the narrative of an inevitable Russian victory is flawed. Just three months into the conflict, we saw that Ukrainian forces were still actively engaging on Russian soil. It shifted perceptions about the conflict significantly.
Interviewer: Lastly, what does “Victory for Ukraine” entail beyond just military objectives?
General Hodges: It transcends the actions of President Zelensky or any single figure. Victory for Ukraine is a collective effort—much like a team sport. Nations like the USA, UK, Germany, and our Baltic allies all play a role. Each country’s support for Ukraine is crucial in achieving that victory.
Interviewer: Thank you for these enlightening insights, General Hodges. It’s crucial to understand the multifaceted dynamics of this conflict. We appreciate your time.
General Hodges: Thank you for having me. It’s vital we continue discussing and analyzing these developments to understand the future of the region better.