Two years after the start of the full-scale war, the dynamics of Western support for Kiev is losing momentum: new aid allocations decreased in the period between August 2023 and January 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, according to the latest report from the Kiel Institutepublished in February 2024. And this trend could continue, as the US Senate struggles to approve aid, and the European Union (EU) has had every difficulty in passing a 50 billion aid on February 1, 2024, since Hungarian bloc. Please note that these two aid packages are not yet taken into account in the latest evaluation carried out by the Kiel Institute, which ends in January 2024.
Data from the German institute shows that the number of donors is decreasing and is concentrated around a core of countries: the United States, Germany, northern and eastern European countries, which promise both high financial aid and advanced armaments. In total, as of February 2022, countries supporting Kiev have committed at least 276 billion euros at a military, financial or humanitarian level.
In absolute terms, the richest countries were the most generous. The United States is by far the largest donor, with over 75 billion euros in aid announced, including 46.3 billion in military aid. European Union countries have announced both bilateral aid (64.86 billion euros) and joint aid from European Union funds (93.25 billion euros), for a total of 158.1 billion euros.
When we relate these contributions to the gross domestic product (GDP) of each donor country, the ranking changes. The United States fell to twentieth place (0.32% of GDP), well behind countries neighboring Ukraine or friendly former Soviet republics. Estonia leads the way in aid to GDP with 3.55%, followed by Denmark (2.41%) and Norway (1.72%). The rest of the top 5 is completed by Lithuania (1.54%) and Latvia (1.15%). The three Baltic states, which all border Russia or its ally Belarus, have been among the most generous donors since the conflict began.
In the percentage of GDP ranking, France is twenty-seventh, having committed to 0.07% of its GDP, immediately behind Greece (0.09%). Aid provided by Paris has been steadily declining since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: France was 24th in April 2023 and 13th in the summer of 2022.
Interview Between Time.news Editor and Expert on Western Support for Ukraine
Time.news Editor (TNE): Good afternoon, and welcome to our special segment on the ongoing situation in Ukraine. Today, we’re joined by Dr. Anna Markov, a political analyst specializing in international relations and conflict resolution. Dr. Markov, thank you for being here.
Dr. Anna Markov (AM): Thank you for having me. It’s a pleasure to be here.
TNE: Let’s dive right in. A recent report from the Kiel Institute has shed light on the decreasing dynamics of Western support for Ukraine. Can you walk us through some of the key findings from that report?
AM: Certainly. The report indicates a noticeable decline in new aid allocations to Ukraine between August 2023 and January 2024. This pattern is alarming as it suggests that the initial momentum seen when the war began is waning. One of the most concerning aspects is the concentration of support among a core group of countries, primarily the United States and Germany. Other nations have either decreased their contributions or are hesitant to step forward.
TNE: That is indeed concerning. The report also highlighted ongoing struggles in the US Senate regarding future aid packages, as well as difficulties the EU is facing in passing a significant aid package. What do you believe are the root causes of this reduced support?
AM: There are several interwoven factors. In the U.S., political polarization is playing a significant role. Some lawmakers are advocating for a reassessment of military spending and prioritizing domestic issues over international aid. In the EU, the challenge has been partly due to objection from countries like Hungary, which has been blocking aid packages citing various concerns.
Moreover, there is a general war fatigue among the public and leaders alike, compounded by economic pressures such as inflation and energy crises. Nations are increasingly evaluating the trade-offs between domestic welfare and international commitments.
TNE: With this diminishing support, what impact could this have on Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense efforts?
AM: The implications could be severe. A reduction in financial and military aid could weaken Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, making it more challenging to repel ongoing aggression. The psychological effects are also profound; a perception that support is waning could embolden adversaries. If Ukraine does not receive timely and adequate assistance, achieving military objectives becomes significantly more difficult.
TNE: In light of this challenging landscape, do you see any potential avenues for revitalizing support for Ukraine from Western allies?
AM: I believe there are a few possible paths. First, fostering narratives around the strategic importance of supporting Ukraine in the wider context of European security could galvanize public and political support. Additionally, a unified European stance is essential; if the EU can present a cohesive front, it may influence hesitant member states to contribute more robustly.
finding innovative ways to engage and communicate the necessity of support to citizens—perhaps linking aid to broader democratic values—might help shift public sentiment back towards backing Ukraine.
TNE: Those are insightful points, Dr. Markov. As we look ahead, do you see a future where Western support for Ukraine could be bolstered, or is the current trend irreversible?
AM: It’s hard to say it’s irreversible. Dynamics in geopolitics can shift rapidly, especially with developments on the ground in Ukraine, or changes in U.S. and EU political landscapes. If the conflict escalates again or if new threats emerge, this could indeed prompt renewed commitment.
In essence, the key is to maintain dialogue and to proactively address both the political and public sentiment aspects surrounding support for Ukraine.
TNE: Valuable insights indeed, Dr. Markov. Thank you for sharing your expertise with us today. As we follow the situation in Ukraine, your analysis will certainly help our audience understand the complexities involved.
AM: Thank you for having me. It’s crucial to keep the conversation going on this topic as the situation evolves.
TNE: And thank you to our viewers for tuning into this important discussion. Stay informed and engaged as we continue to cover developments in Ukraine and international relations.