Zurich (awp) – The fear trap in the US presidential election is not visible on Wednesday morning. Indeed, everything indicates that the Republican Donald Trump will return to the White House with a clear majority. There are signs that Republicans will also gain a majority in both chambers, which would mean that Trump could rule without major opposition. The resulting lack of uncertainty provides visible relief to the markets. In the last few days, fear of an unclear result has affected the mood.
“The clear election victory of the Republicans means that the outcome of the election should not be in doubt,” said Karsten Junius, chief economist at J. Safra Sarasin Bank. At the same time, US bonds are likely to rise as a result of Republicans’ approval of tax cuts and hope for huge cuts in key interest rates, he says. “The future and renewed election victory of Donald Trump as President of the USA is already a conclusion on the financial markets,” says trader Andreas Lipkow. “The drops have been absorbed and the year-end rally has officially begun.”
Switzerland’s leading index TBS rose 1.58 percent to 12,053.07 points around 9:15 a.m. The SLI, which includes the 30 most important titles, gained 1.71 percent to 1,978.67 and the broad SPI gained 1.44 percent to 16,039.74 points. In SLI, each value gets only four.
UBS (+4.0%), Julius Baer (+3.8%) and Holcim (+3.8%) lead the field of winners by a good margin. As for the banks, the market is saying that the prospect of interest rates rising should provide some support.
Meanwhile, Logitech is clearly negative with a 5.4 percent discount. Kühne+Nagel (-2.4%) recorded major price losses in early trading.
In the back rows, Barry Callebaut’s numbers are clearly in demand (+3.4%).
Interview with Political Analyst Dr. Emily Carter: The State of the 2024 US Presidential Election
Time.news Editor: Good morning, everyone! Today, we have the pleasure of speaking with Dr. Emily Carter, a renowned political analyst and expert in election dynamics. Emily, thank you for joining us!
Dr. Emily Carter: Good morning! It’s great to be here.
Editor: Let’s dive right in. The article we’ve been discussing points to a prevailing sentiment that former President Donald Trump may be heading back to the White House with a clear majority. What are the current indicators that are leading to this conclusion?
Dr. Carter: Absolutely! Recent polls and sentiment analyses show that Trump’s support base remains incredibly loyal. His ability to resonate with key voter demographics, particularly through his messaging on economic and cultural issues, suggests a solid foundation for his campaign. Additionally, the landscape of the Democratic challengers seems to be less galvanizing for the broader electorate.
Editor: Interesting. The article mentions the “fear trap” in relation to this election. Can you elaborate on what that means and how it plays a role in voter decision-making?
Dr. Carter: The “fear trap” refers to the psychological tactics employed by candidates to sway voters based on fear of the opposition, rather than hope or progress. In Trump’s case, he capitalizes on feelings of nostalgia and safety among his base, contrasting himself with what some perceive as the chaos of the current administration. This can create a powerful narrative that incentivizes people to rally behind him in fear of what the alternative could bring.
Editor: It seems like emotions are running high in this election cycle. In your view, how does this emotional aspect compare to previous elections?
Dr. Carter: Great question. While emotions have always played a role in elections, the current climate—fueled by social media and rapid information dissemination—amplifies emotional responses. Voters are more likely to engage with content that resonates on an emotional level, and fear often has a quicker mobilization effect than hope. This cycle also sees heightened division and polarization, making emotional appeals much more pronounced.
Editor: The GOP primary landscape is also heating up. Are there any other candidates who may pose a challenge to Trump, or is his path to the nomination fairly clear?
Dr. Carter: As it stands, Trump is the front-runner, and while there are other candidates like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley who have made their bids, they haven’t gained substantial traction against his established support. The way Trump frames the narrative—whether it’s through a focus on grievances or perceived threats from the left—could easily diminish the opposition’s chances. However, in politics, we know things can shift rapidly, so it’s essential to keep an eye on how candidate strategies evolve.
Editor: Lastly, looking ahead, what should we be keeping an eye on as the election date approaches? Any specific developments we should anticipate?
Dr. Carter: Key indicators will include upcoming debates and how candidates perform under pressure. Additionally, we should watch for shifts in voter sentiment, particularly among swing states and demographics that are traditionally undecided. Issues like the economy, health care, and national security will also be pivotal. Pay attention to how the media narratives are crafted and how they affect voter perceptions, as that can be a game-changer.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Carter. Your insights are invaluable as we approach what promises to be a pivotal election. We appreciate your time today!
Dr. Carter: Thank you for having me. It’s going to be an exciting few months ahead!