Donald Trump will take office as the 47th president of the United States on January 20 at 12 noon. The Republican returns to the White House four years after losing office, which has only happened once in history. With xenophobia as the focus of his campaign, as he did in 2016, Trump exploited the frustration of citizens after the sharp price increases of the past four years and the increase in irregular immigration. The Republican has shown himself to be immune from scandals and will become the first convicted traitor to be elected president, which will also clear his judicial future. The new victory of demagogue and populist, but at the same time charismatic, politician represents an earthquake for the future of the United States and the world and opens a period of uncertainty.
The Republican celebrated his victory, before it was final, at a party for this purpose in West Palm Beach (Florida), near his Mar-a-Lago mansion. “We have achieved a political victory that our country has never seen, anything like this,” he said. He promised to “help heal” the United States, ushering in a “golden age,” he said. “We’re going to fix everything that’s wrong in this country,” he said. Along with, among others, his wife, Melania Trump, and his future vice president, JD Vance, he thanked Elon Musk, who was also present, for his support in the campaign. Of course, he said his slogan: “Make America Great Again.”
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Trump won the elections in an incontestable way, clearly he won in the Electoral College, but also – apparently – in the popular vote, although the scrutiny is not yet complete. In the first hours after the closing of the polls, he was already close to victory and his advantage in the decisive states, although the equality of those results prevented him from being declared the winner. with the wins in North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, he exceeded the threshold of 270 Electoral College delegates necessary to confirm his victory, although the number could still increase. For the third time, Trump exceeded poll expectations.
The result represents a major setback for the Democratic Party, which also lost control of the Senate. As a result of pressure from parliamentary leaders after his disastrous June debate against Trump, Joe Biden resigned from his re-election and handed the baton to his vice president, Kamala Harris. Part of Biden’s resistance to stepping aside was because he did not believe that Harris, who was more incompetent than himself at the time, could defeat his great political enemy as he did in 2020.
Obstacle course
Trump, who tried to cling to power after the 2020 elections and still does not recognize his victory at that time, has survived two political processes (impeachments), one of them for his responsibility in the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, four criminal charges out of the many charges, a conviction of 34 crimes by a popular jury and two attempted murders, one of which resulted. slightly injured when a bullet nearly killed him. At 78 years of age, he will be the oldest president to take office.
Donald J. Trump, with his wife, Melania Trump, and his son, Barron Trump, during his victory celebration party in West Palm Beach.Herrera-ULASKEVICH (EFE) CRISTOBAL
Trump was able to capitalize on the discontent and frustration over the price hikes of the past four years, which caused governments around the world to lose elections. Inflation has particularly hit basic goods and with them, the lowest incomes. The president-elect has achieved strong support among white non-college workers and also among Latinos, despite his xenophobic rhetoric.
The former president regains power, whose resources he already knows, with the promise of strong tax cuts, generalized tariffs on imports and massive deportations of irregular immigrants. His return to American democracy will test his resistance, given his authoritarian streak, in which he has referred to his political rivals as the “enemy within” and threatened to persecute and prosecute them.
The people who can celebrate Trump’s victory are those convicted of the attack on the Capitol, whom he promised to pardon. The president-elect himself has promised to remove the prosecutor who pursued him in two federal cases, Jack Smith, and they may be filed. It is also expected that the Georgia process to steal the 2020 elections in that State will be suspended and the question is what will happen to the sentence that Judge Juan Merchán will have to give in New York this month.
Beyond the risks to the health of American democracy, Trump’s victory turns the global geopolitical table upside down, with his ”America First” policy of isolation. That proclamation will first translate, and if it lives up to its promises, with generalized tariffs on imports that could trigger a trade war.
The Republican plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on US imports equal to the rates used by trading partners on US exports (usually higher). That would add (or overlap) a universal base tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports. As for China, Trump has promised a general tariff of 60%, which would be higher on some products. In addition, he is sure to set 100% tariffs for cars imported from Mexico. Trump has already imposed tariffs during his presidency that Biden has maintained, or even raised in some cases, but the current proposal is much larger, which could effectively end trade with China and which would provoke retaliation from the European Union.
Trump supporters at a party from the Republican Party in the Ahern Hotel in Las Vegas (Nevada).CAROLINE BREHMAN (EFE)
In fact, the EU has prepared contingency plans for a possible Trump victory, not only to respond to the tariffs, but also to prepare for a possible reduction in aid to Ukraine, which is decisive for its resistance to the Russian invasion. The Republicans have promised to end the war in one day, but many fear that this will come at the cost of Kyiv’s threat to withdraw aid in exchange for concessions to Moscow. The president-elect is in tune with dictators such as Russian Vladimir Putin and North Korean Kim Jong-un, or far-right leaders such as Hungarian Viktor Orbán or Argentine Javier Milei.
The other open war front, the one in the Middle East, is to give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a free hand to escalate the war. Trump already talked to him during the campaign and told him to do what he considered necessary. This Wednesday, the Israelis were quick to congratulate the American.
Trump’s victory also reflects a new approach to the geostrategic competition with China and, more generally, to the international alliances that Biden has been weaving and strengthening during his mandate. His commitment to NATO is less than that of his predecessor. In addition, Trump’s victory removes the United States from the fight against climate change and threatens the funding of international organizations.
The former president based a large part of his campaign on the attack on irregular immigrants, which he considers “criminals”, “mayors” who “poison the blood” of the Americans and bring “bad genes.” He promised mass deportations that are even logistically difficult to implement, but the border certainly has a strong hand. Trump made irregular immigration the scapegoat for all the problems that plague the United States, not bothering to resort to hoaxes, from insecurity to housing shortages. In 2016 he made his way to the White House on the back of a xenophobic and racist speech and made the move again eight years later.
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Control of Congress (the Republican Party has secured the Senate while trying to keep the House of Representatives) would allow him to carry out his promises of aggressive tax cuts. She proposes an unlimited extension of the 2017 tax cuts that expire at the end of 2025, which particularly benefit higher-income earners and include lower tax rates, a larger standard deduction, a larger child tax credit and greater income tax exemption.
In addition, he made promises aimed at attracting groups of voters. He proposes exempting restaurant and hospitality workers’ tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits from taxes, as well as taxing auto loan interest and fully restoring the deductibility of state and local taxes. It will also end taxation that currently extends to Americans living abroad. For companies, he recommends lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for companies that manufacture their products in the United States. Instead, he recommends repealing the incentives for renewable energy investments from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Trump was the 45th president, but he will also be the 47th, since that is the convention for non-consecutive presidents. There is only one precedent, that of Grover Cleveland in 1892, who was the 22nd and 24th president. It is likely that the president-elect, master of
The transition of power will be complicated. In 2020 it was already there, due to the resistance of the President at the time to admit his victory to Biden. Now, facing the mutual distrust between the two, almost converted to personal enmity. For the outgoing president, failing to turn the page on Trumpism will be one of his biggest failures.
Donald Trump and his wife Melania, this Wednesday in Palm Beach, Florida.Jeff Roberson (AP)
Hat Trump’s return to the presidency will significantly affect both domestic and international policies. His administration may prioritize a return to isolationist policies, as indicated by his “America First” stance, which could lead to trade tensions and tariff wars with other nations, especially with China and the European Union. The potential for tax cuts, deregulation, and further immigration enforcement is likely to resonate with his base, despite concerns about the ramifications for American society and democracy.
Moreover, Trump’s approach to international relations may shift dramatically, with a preference for aligning with authoritarian leaders and an inclination to scale back U.S. commitments to longstanding alliances like NATO, while potentially reducing support for Ukraine amidst its conflict with Russia. This raises significant concerns about global stability and America’s role on the world stage.
While he faces various legal challenges, his presidency will test the resilience of American democracy and its institutions. As he plans to address immigration reform through punitive measures, critics may argue that it detracts from addressing the underlying issues. The political landscape is fraught with division, and Trump’s return to power could exacerbate tensions both domestically and internationally.
Trump’s second term, should his plans come to fruition, promises to be a tumultuous period that may redefine America’s impact on global geopolitics, economic stability, and social dynamics within the country.