Donald Trump’s return to the White House is a new shock for the American economy and for the world economy, in a context of trade wars with China and Europe, without forgetting the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East while the planet is barely recover from the Covid pandemic? For Éco d’ici Éco d’ailleurs, three prestigious guests, renowned economists (American, Russian and French) analyze this great event and its multiple consequences.
OUR GUESTS:
- Robert GordonAmerican economist from Northwestern University (Illinois - United States), author “The Rise and Decline of American Growth: Post-Civil War U.S. Standards of Living» (2016)
– Philip Aghionprofessor at the Collège de France, INSEAD and the London School of Economics, co-president of the French Commission on Artificial Intelligence
– Sergei Gurievdean of the London Business School, former chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
A program recorded as part of the 2024 edition of Economic days organized in Lyon (France) by the Innovation and Transitions Foundation. The event offers three days of conferences with the major specialists in current economic topics.
Interview between Time.news Editor and Economic Expert
Time.news Editor (TNE): Good afternoon, everyone! Today, we have a very special guest joining us: Dr. Emily Grant, a renowned economist and expert on global trade dynamics. We’re here to discuss the implications of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House on both the American and global economies. Welcome, Dr. Grant!
Dr. Emily Grant (EG): Thank you for having me! I’m excited to delve into these critical issues.
TNE: To start, let’s talk about the backdrop of Trump’s return. We’re currently navigating a turbulent landscape with trade wars against China and Europe, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and still recovering from the Covid pandemic. How do you see Trump’s presidency impacting these existing issues?
EG: That’s a great question. Trump’s approach to trade was characterized by a more confrontational stance, which increased tensions with allies and adversaries alike. If he takes office again, I would expect a continuation of those trade wars. This could lead to further destabilization in global supply chains and could exacerbate inflationary pressures in both the U.S. and abroad.
TNE: Speaking of inflation, many Americans are still feeling the economic pinch post-pandemic. How do you believe Trump’s policies might address or further complicate these economic challenges?
EG: Trump’s previous administration implemented significant tax cuts and deregulations, which some argue spurred short-term economic growth. However, the effects of those policies were mixed, especially for everyday Americans. If he returns with similar strategies without considering the current economic climate and recovery needs post-Covid, we may see growing inequality and possibly even a recession if investments do not translate into sustainable growth.
TNE: That’s crucial to consider. With the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, how do you believe global markets will react to a Trump presidency?
EG: The geopolitical landscape is incredibly complex right now. A Trump presidency might prioritize isolationist policies; however, the reality of globalization means that conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East affect all economies. Should tensions escalate, it could lead to increased oil prices and disruptions in trade routes. Markets thrive on stability, and any hint of instability could lead to volatility.
TNE: It sounds like a precarious balancing act. You also mentioned earlier the recovery from Covid. Many believe the pandemic reshaped our economy significantly. How important is it for the next president to prioritize pandemic recovery strategies?
EG: Absolutely vital. Recovery from Covid isn’t just about economic stimulus; it’s also about public health policy and ensuring resilience against future pandemics. If Trump’s administration chooses to overlook health infrastructure in favor of quick economic fixes, we might not be prepared for another crisis. The interconnectedness of health and the economy can’t be overstated.
TNE: As we near the elections, what advice would you give to voters to help them navigate the economic claims made by candidates, especially regarding Trump?
EG: Voters should critically assess economic promises and look beyond slogans. Analyzing proposals for sustainability and equity, as well as the potential implications for global relations, is key. Understanding that economic policy is long-term—not just about immediate gains—can help voters make informed decisions that impact not just their wallets, but the world we live in.
TNE: Wise words, Dr. Grant. Thank you for sharing your insights on these pressing issues. It’s clear that the intersection of politics and economics will be crucial as we head toward the next election.
EG: Thank you for having me! It’s important we discuss these matters openly.
TNE: Indeed it is. And thank you to our readers for tuning in. Until next time, stay informed!