Germany will go to the polls on February 23. This was decided yesterday by the parliamentary leaders of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Conservative Union with the approval of the liberals of the FDP and the Green Party who support the proposal. After a few days of political chaos, the German government perceives a certain clarity although now it will be federal president Frank-Walter Steinmeier who will have to make the final decision on the election date, even if he is unlikely to do so. oppose the proposal. It was also corrected for December 11th the chancellor’s date Olaf Scholz raised the issue of confidence in the Bundestag, which will be voted on in the German Parliament five days later. The expected defeat in this vote will begin the process of new elections and, from that moment, the federal president will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag. Then there is a 60-day period for holding new elections and the deadline is February 23.
Only five times in the history of the Federal Republic has a chancellor received a vote of confidence from the Bundestag: Gerhard Schröder resorted to this measure twice (November 2001 and July 2005). Before that, Willy Brandt did it in September 1972, Helmut Schmidt in February 1982 and Helmut Kohl in December 1982.
Surveys in GermanyMiguel RoselloThe reason
For some analysts, the expected election date is not ideal, because in Saxony there are school holidays and in Saarland it is the weekend immediately before the holidays, when many people will probably be absent. These two Länder together represent 6% of the voters. 19 January and 30 March were also taken into consideration as possible alternatives, as they are the only days without holidays in the whole country, even if according to the SPD and the CDU/CSU it would have been either too early or too late. Until February 23, the country will no longer have elections in its various Länder, although a week later, on March 2, regional elections will be held in Hamburg.
After the Traffic light coalition was dissolved last Wednesday, Scholz spoke out in favor of new elections at the end of March. “For me it is not a problem to raise the issue of confidence before Christmas, if everyone agrees,” the chancellor said at the time. Shortly before the announcement of the agreement, federal official Ruth Brand had expressed her support for the election scheduled for February. From his point of view, the realization of these elections is “manageable” or, in any case, preferable to that suggested by the conservatives, who defended the appointment with the polls in January. A possibility that would have been “difficult” in the opinion of the control commission.
Now, until the election date, the federal government remains in office until a new chancellor is elected and his ministers are appointed. In Germany there is therefore no period without Parliament and the Bundestag will be able to continue to make important decisions until the formation of the new Government, provided the necessary majorities can be found.
Following the departure of the Federal Minister of Finance last Wednesday, Cristiano Lindnerand the withdrawal of the FDP from the Traffic Light Coalition, Scholz heads a minority government. Something that could undermine his ability to act and that will force him to laboriously organize a majority with the votes of the opposition.
But the electoral machine is already in motion. It is now necessary to appoint election committees in each district and at the state level, as well as recruit and train poll workers or find and equip voting halls. Additionally, the more than 60 million voters will need to receive election notifications.
With a more than feasible date for the elections, the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) announced Tuesday afternoon that it will move the federal party conference, initially scheduled for March, to January due to the new election date. This was confirmed by the party co-leader, Alice Weidelalthough he did not specify an exact date or location. The electoral program will be decided in the assembly in which Weidel will also be officially elected candidate for chancellor.
Furthermore, as things currently stand, the SPD does not want to elect Chancellor Olaf Scholz as its chancellor candidate until the end of January or the beginning of February at a party congress. SPD federal chairwoman Saskia Esken once again supported Scholz. “I think she has shown that she knows how to govern and we will go on the election campaign together with our chancellor,” he said.
The atmosphere in Berlin indicates that the election campaign has already begun. The leader of the CDU Federico Merzhe was quick to assure this Tuesday that if he wins he will initiate a major tax reform and, in conjunction with the celebration of the Hotel and Catering Industry Day in Germany, he also announced that in future a reduced VAT rate will apply to food products .
At the same time, the Greens also appeared well positioned for the early elections. “We are prepared,” declared the party’s political director in Berlin, Emily Buning. A few weeks after the election of the new board of directors, this formation will present a project which will have to be approved at a future party congress.
Interview: The Future of German Politics with Expert Dr. Anna Müller
Time.news Editor (TNE): Welcome, Dr. Anna Müller, political analyst and expert on German politics. With the recent decision for Germany to hold elections on February 23, there’s quite a bit to unpack. What are your initial thoughts on this date?
Dr. Anna Müller (AM): Thank you for having me! The February 23 date is significant, especially after the recent political chaos. It gives a sense of direction to the current uncertainty. However, there are concerns about voter turnout, particularly in regions like Saxony and Saarland, due to school holidays.
TNE: That raises an important point. With these holidays, how could this impact the overall results?
AM: Well, these two Länder represent a good chunk of the electorate—around 6%. If many potential voters are away or distracted by holiday activities, it could skew the results. Analysts have argued that January 19 or March 30 may have been better choices, but the coalition felt those dates were either too early or too late.
TNE: Chancellor Olaf Scholz seems keen on moving forward with confidence votes. What implications could that have for the upcoming elections?
AM: Scholz’s proposed confidence vote in the Bundestag is pivotal. Historically, only five chancellors have received such votes, so it’s a rare maneuver. If he loses the confidence vote—and that’s highly expected—it would initiate the process for new elections, further entwining his government in a precarious position as a minority administration.
TNE: Speaking of the minority government, how do you see that affecting the legislative process before the elections?
AM: A minority government is inherently more fragile. Scholz will have to negotiate with opposition parties to pass legislation effectively. This could delay important decisions and create uncertainty, which might not sit well with the electorate as they prepare for the polls.
TNE: There’s also talk about how the election infrastructure is getting ready. With over 60 million voters needing notifications, do you think the system is prepared to handle such a swift transition?
AM: Preparations are already underway, which is reassuring. Appointing election committees and training poll workers is critical. However, just as important is ensuring the public is informed—especially considering the diverse voter base across Germany. The success of the election will depend on both readiness and public engagement.
TNE: Let’s touch on the political landscape a bit. The far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), is becoming a significant player. How do you see their role in these upcoming elections?
AM: The AfD’s influence is growing, especially in light of dissatisfaction with the current government’s handling of key issues. As they appeal to more voters frustrated with traditional parties, they could reshape the political dynamics in the Bundestag. It could lead to a broader coalition reality, potentially complicating governance post-election.
TNE: Lastly, looking forward, what do you believe will be the key factors influencing voter sentiment leading up to February 23?
AM: Voter sentiment will likely be driven by the perceived effectiveness of the current government, economic conditions, and management of public services. Additionally, the ability of opposition parties to present a cohesive alternative to the status quo will significantly impact how the electorate views the upcoming elections.
TNE: Thank you, Dr. Müller, for sharing your insights. It seems we’re in for a pivotal moment in German politics!
AM: Absolutely! It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds. Thank you for having me!