BOLZANO. The autumn edition of the Economic Barometer of Ire, the Economic Research Institute of the Bolzano Chamber of Commerce, photographs an improvement in the climate of trust among dairies and in the fruit sector. The cooperative wineries also express positive expectations on profitability and production prices next year, but expect a contraction in turnover.
In the dairy sector, profitability assessments in 2024 benefit from the reduction in energy prices. In the second part of the year, milk prices showed a recovery. Almost all dairies are confident that they will be able to increase sales prices in 2025. Growth in turnover is expected for next year, especially on markets outside the province.
For the fruit sector, it is estimated that in 2024 the apple harvest in Europe will be around 10.2 million tonnes, 11% less than last year. In Alto Adige, production should be just below last year’s levels, equal to around one million tonnes. The lower supply of apples should favor the increase in prices. However, there is no shortage of factors of uncertainty, such as the loss of purchasing power of families and transport difficulties caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The president of the Chamber of Commerce, Michl Ebnerunderlines the excellent quality of South Tyrolean agricultural products: «Thanks to the huge investments and hard work of the farmers, our cooperatives can pay their members higher production prices than elsewhere».
«Prices are relatively stable. The South Tyrolean dairy sector is also benefiting from this situation. However, trade exerts strong pressure due to the weakness of consumption”, he highlights Annemarie Kaserdirector of the Alto Adige Dairy Federation.
How can stakeholders in the dairy and fruit industries prepare for the anticipated market changes in the coming years?
Interview between Time.news Editor and Dr. Laura Fischer, Economic Analyst at the Economic Research Institute of Bolzano
Time.news Editor: Good morning, Dr. Fischer! Thank you for joining us today. Let’s dive straight into your latest report from the Economic Barometer. It seems that there’s a notable shift in the climate of trust among the dairy and fruit sectors. Could you elaborate on that?
Dr. Laura Fischer: Good morning! Absolutely, the Economic Barometer we’ve released indicates a positive trend in the dairy and fruit industries. For the dairy sector, trust has significantly improved, largely due to the recent decline in energy prices. This reduction has had a direct impact on profitability assessments for 2024.
Time.news Editor: That’s encouraging news! You mentioned that there’s a recovery in milk prices. How does this recovery impact the dairies’ forecast for the upcoming years?
Dr. Laura Fischer: Yes, indeed! In the second half of this year, we’ve seen milk prices begin to stabilize and recover. Dairies are optimistic, with many expecting to raise their sales prices in 2025. This growth in turnover is particularly encouraging as these businesses also anticipate better performance in markets outside of the province.
Time.news Editor: It sounds like a promising outlook for those in the dairy sector. Switching gears to the fruit sector, particularly apples—there seems to be a contrasting scenario here with a decrease in expected harvest. Can you tell us more about that?
Dr. Laura Fischer: Certainly! The apple harvest forecast for Europe in 2024 is projected to be around 10.2 million tonnes, which represents an 11% decline compared to last year. In Alto Adige, production will likely be just below last year’s figures. This decrease is concerning, especially for producers who rely heavily on volume to maintain profitability.
Time.news Editor: What factors are contributing to this decline in apple production, and how might it affect the market overall?
Dr. Laura Fischer: The decline can be attributed to several factors, including climate conditions and potential pest issues which have affected yields. This reduced output might lead to increased prices in the market, given that demand remains strong. However, it does place pressure on the producers who might struggle to keep up with the profitability targets they set in more abundant years.
Time.news Editor: It sounds like there’s a balance that producers need to manage—navigating market conditions while maintaining profitability. How can stakeholders in these sectors prepare for these changes?
Dr. Laura Fischer: Stakeholders need to be proactive. For dairies, capitalizing on the positive energy price trend and exploring new markets can bolster revenues. For fruit producers, diversifying product offerings, investing in technology for better yield predictions, and possibly looking at sustainable practices could enhance resilience against future uncertainties. Collaboration among cooperatives can also foster a shared strategy for better market positioning.
Time.news Editor: Great insights, Dr. Fischer. Before we wrap up, what do you think is the key takeaway from this autumn edition of the Economic Barometer?
Dr. Laura Fischer: The key takeaway is that while there are challenges, notably for the fruit sector, there’s also a significant opportunity for growth in the dairy industry driven by improved trust and cost reductions. Adaptability and forward-thinking will be essential for continued success across both sectors in the coming years.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Dr. Fischer, for sharing your expertise with us today. It’s been a pleasure discussing the latest economic insights from the Bolzano Chamber of Commerce.
Dr. Laura Fischer: Thank you for having me! It’s always a pleasure to share insights on these important sectors.