Two years after the start of the large-scale war, the dynamics of Western support for Kiev is losing momentum: new aid allocations decreased in the period between August 2023 and January 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, according to the latest report from the Kiel Institutereleased in February 2024. And this trend could continue, as the US Senate has difficulty approving aid, and the European Union (EU) has had every difficulty in passing a 50 billion aid on February 1, 2024, from the Hungarian bloc. Please note that these two aid packages are not yet taken into account in the latest evaluation carried out by the Kiel Institute, which ends in January 2024.
Data from the German institute shows that the number of donors is decreasing and is concentrated around a core of countries: the United States, Germany, northern and eastern European countries, which promise both high financial aid and advanced armaments. In total, as of February 2022, countries supporting Kiev have committed at least 276 billion euros at a military, financial or humanitarian level.
In absolute terms, the richest countries were the most generous. The United States is by far the largest donor, with over 75 billion euros in aid announced, including 46.3 billion in military aid. European Union countries have announced both bilateral aid (64.86 billion euros) and joint aid from European Union funds (93.25 billion euros), for a total of 158.1 billion euros.
When we relate these contributions to the gross domestic product (GDP) of each donor country, the ranking changes. The United States fell to twentieth place (0.32% of GDP), well behind countries neighboring Ukraine or friendly former Soviet republics. Estonia leads the way in aid to GDP with 3.55%, followed by Denmark (2.41%) and Norway (1.72%). The rest of the top 5 is completed by Lithuania (1.54%) and Latvia (1.15%). The three Baltic states, which all border Russia or its ally Belarus, have been among the most generous donors since the conflict began.
In the percentage of GDP ranking, France is twenty-seventh, having committed to 0.07% of its GDP, immediately behind Greece (0.09%). Aid provided by Paris has been steadily declining since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: France was 24th in April 2023 and 13th in the summer of 2022.
What are the potential consequences of decreased Western support for Ukraine in the ongoing conflict?
Interview Between Time.news Editor and Ukraine Conflict Expert
Time.news Editor: Good day, everyone, and welcome to our special edition on the evolving landscape of international support for Ukraine. Today, we’re joined by Dr. Elena Vasilyev, a prominent expert on Eastern European geopolitics. Thank you for being here, Dr. Vasilyev!
Dr. Elena Vasilyev: Thank you for having me. It’s a pleasure to discuss such an important issue.
Editor: Let’s dive right in. According to the recent report from the Kiel Institute, there’s been a noticeable decline in Western support for Ukraine since the start of the conflict. What do you make of this trend?
Dr. Vasilyev: It’s concerning, to say the least. The report indicates that from August 2023 to January 2024, new aid allocations have diminished compared to the previous year. This signals a shift in priorities among donor nations, and we need to understand the implications of this.
Editor: What factors do you believe are driving this decline in support?
Dr. Vasilyev: There are several layers to this issue. First, domestically, countries like the US are facing significant political challenges around aid approvals. The Senate is tangled in debates, which complicates swift aid allocations. Additionally, the European Union has experienced hurdles; the recent bid for a €50 billion aid package faced opposition from member states, particularly Hungary. This kind of political friction diminishes the urgency for support.
Editor: It sounds quite complex. In your view, what does this reduced support mean for Ukraine, both strategically and socially?
Dr. Vasilyev: The implications are multifaceted. Strategically, a decrease in aid could weaken Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defenses. This is particularly crucial as the conflict continues and Russia adjusts its tactics. Socially, fewer resources could lead to greater uncertainty among Ukrainians, potentially fostering discontent and hindering reconstruction efforts. Support isn’t just about military aid; it encompasses humanitarian assistance, economic stability, and rebuilding infrastructure.
Editor: Yes, it’s a comprehensive picture. The report also mentions a narrowing donor base concentrated around a few key countries—namely the US and Germany. Should we be worried about this?
Dr. Vasilyev: Absolutely. A concentrated donor base is always a risk. It makes support vulnerable to shifts in political climates within those key countries. If the US were to significantly alter its foreign policy approach, for example, Ukraine could find itself in a precarious position without a diversified pool of support from other nations.
Editor: So, what can be done to reverse this trend? Are there actions that the international community can take to re-engage and increase aid to Ukraine?
Dr. Vasilyev: Yes, re-engagement is crucial. Firstly, enhancing diplomatic dialogues among donor countries is essential. Streamlining aid processes and ensuring consistent communication can help restore confidence. Secondly, creating visible, tangible benefits for supporting Ukraine—highlighting success stories of aid—can motivate countries to contribute. Lastly, fostering public awareness and engagement in donor countries about the situation in Ukraine could reset the narrative and increase public support for continued assistance.
Editor: Those are some actionable insights. what is your outlook for the next few months regarding Western support for Ukraine?
Dr. Vasilyev: I remain cautiously optimistic. While challenges persist, the essence of international solidarity is strong. If we can navigate through political complexities and emphasize the stakes involved, we can hopefully see an uptick in aid. However, vigilance and proactive engagement will be key.
Editor: Thank you so much, Dr. Vasilyev, for your invaluable expertise and insights today. As the situation unfolds, we will certainly keep a close eye on the developments regarding support for Ukraine.
Dr. Vasilyev: Thank you for having me. It’s vital that we continue these conversations.
Editor: And to our viewers, thank you for joining us in this important discussion. Stay informed and engaged as we continue to monitor the evolving dynamics in Eastern Europe.