Despite some similarities, the situation between China and Taiwan can be analyzed differently from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Mainly because an open conflict would directly involve the United States.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leads to drawing parallels with Taiwan, a global hotspot in the Far East, with the possibility of even more destructive conflict.
Taiwan, a de facto self-governing island of 24 million people, located about 160 kilometers off the southeast coast of China, is a vibrant democracy which, like Ukraine, has lived for years under the threat of a conflict with an authoritarian neighbor much more powerful than her. The war in Ukraine has therefore caused a deep stir in Taiwan and renewed interest in preparing the resistance for a possible invasion by China, which considers the island a renegade province and has sworn to take control of it. , by force if necessary. Russia’s offensive also provides lessons for the Chinese army, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which it could use if it decides to launch an assault against the other side of the Strait of Taiwan.
But despite all the similarities that exist between Ukraine and Taiwan, there are also important differences, which primarily concern the parties involved: a conflict in Taiwan would directly involve the United States. Although there is no indication that such a war is imminent, if it were to break out, it could pit the world’s two largest armies against each other, bringing the world’s two largest economies into play.
Here is a brief overview of past and present tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan, and their possible implications for the future balance of power in Asia and around the world.
Where are the tensions between China and Taiwan?
Tensions have risen since former President Donald Trump made closer ties with Taiwan a part of US policy. This continued under the presidency of Joe Biden, with the United States sending weapons, special military training units and delegations of former senior officials in support of the Taiwanese president, Tsai Ing-wen, whom Beijing considers a dangerous pro-independence activist.
The past year has been marked by escalating friction: the PLA has sent fighter jets, bombers and spy planes on hundreds of sorties near Taiwan, often in reaction to the presence of US carrier battle groups nearby from the island.
Things are getting hotter and hotter since Russia invaded Ukraine. A few days after the announcement of the“military operation
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