Speech at the opening ceremony of the Pyongyang Armed Equipment Exhibition
Claiming “What we are certain of is a hostile North Korea policy”
Negotiation-coexistence expression used to imply ‘big deal’
Possibility of reunion amid confrontation with Trump
North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un said, “We have already gone as far as we can go in terms of negotiation with the United States,” and added, “What made us confident in the outcome of the negotiations was not the willingness of the first country (the United States) to coexist, but a thorough stance of power.” and aggressive and hostile policies toward North Korea.” Previously, during the first Donald Trump administration, there were two North Korea-US summits and other negotiations, but based on the experience that virtually ended in a ’no deal’, the government is targeting the second Trump administration for a ‘strong-to-river’ confrontation based on nuclear weapons. Foreshadowed. However, some interpret that the fact that Chairman Kim used expressions such as “negotiation” and “will to coexist” for the first time since Trump returned to power was indicative of his will to make a ‘big deal’ with President-elect Trump. A government source said, “Chairman Kim, whose confidence has grown due to the advancement of nuclear weapons, has hinted at the possibility of a reunion on the premise of nuclear disarmament, not denuclearization, if Trump lays the groundwork.”
North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency reported on the 22nd that Chairman Kim said this in a speech commemorating the opening ceremony of the armed equipment exhibition ’Defense Development – 2024′ held in Pyongyang on the 21st. On this day, Chairman Kim focused on the United States, saying, “The doctrine (a cleverly crafted statement) that the United States is never
In particular, North Korea proudly displayed solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) on both sides of the exhibition stage, including the Hwasong-18, which can hit the U.S. mainland, and the Hwasong-19, which was test-launched for the first time at the end of last month. A military official said, “It is a ‘showcase’ aimed at exporting additional weapons to Russia, and the intention is to show off the advancement of nuclear missiles to the Trump administration and raise the ransom during future negotiations.”
Meanwhile, a high-ranking government official said in a phone call with the Dong-A Ilbo, “It has been determined that Russia has already helped modernize North Korea’s conventional weapons.” It is believed that they have improved new tanks and improved the performance of old fighter jets for North Korea, which has dispatched large-scale troops to Russia. National Security Office Director Shin Won-sik said on this day, “We understand that Russia provided related equipment and anti-aircraft missiles to reinforce Pyongyang’s air defense network, which is vulnerable to North Korea.” If Russia were to transfer S-400 missile batteries, an advanced air defense system, to North Korea, it would be an act that would cross the Korean government’s ‘red line’, so there is a possibility that it could affect the government’s support of weapons to Ukraine.
North Korea-US negotiations: Kim Jong-un makes a choice, but nuclear talks are possible if US is willing to coexist
Kim Jong-un’s true intentions when he mentioned the word ‘negotiation’
“The strongest defense force is the only way to protect peace”
Experience of fruitless talks during Trump’s first term… Intention to create tension and ‘raise the ransom’
Trump mentions meeting with Kim Jong-un several times… Some say, “The North Korean nuclear issue may be pushed to the bottom of the list.”
On the 21st, North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un pointedly stated, “I have gone to all possible places, mainly through negotiations with the United States.” First, he met with then-US President Donald Trump in Singapore in 2018 and Hanoi, Vietnam in 2019, but ended up virtually empty-handed. It appears that he was recalling the experience of returning home without success. Some are already talking about the possibility of a North Korea-US summit ahead of the second Trump administration, but Chairman Kim has shown his determination that he will not easily engage in negotiations as if he was being dragged around by the US like he did back then. Furthermore, he targeted the Trump administration and even hinted at the possibility of a head-on confrontation, saying, “The strongest
However, on this day, Chairman Kim used the expression ‘negotiations’ for the first time while referring to the United States. It is interpreted that President-elect Trump has paradoxically revealed his intention to engage in negotiations as long as he shows a ‘will to coexist’, such as withdrawing hostile policies toward North Korea and easing economic sanctions. In July, when he was a presidential candidate, President-elect Trump said, “I got along well with Kim Jong-un, and we stopped North Korean missile launches. He has often mentioned his relationship with Chairman Kim, saying, “I will get along well when I return.” A government source said, “Chairman Kim may also have noticed this kind of wording,” and added, “It is possible that he is already envisioning a situation in which he will do business with President-elect Trump, even if it is not right away.”
● Kim Jong-un mentions ‘negotiations’ for the first time, willing to coexist with Trump by ‘possessing nuclear weapons’
In a four-page speech on A4 paper released by state media, including North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency, on the 22nd, Chairman Kim asserted to the United States, “We will never lower the military balance with our own hands.” Previously, in a speech made 10 days after the US presidential election (5th), he said, “The policy of strengthening nuclear forces has long since become an irreversible policy for us.” This clearly demonstrated to the second Trump administration that it will not give up nuclear weapons under any circumstances. Even if a ‘big deal’ with the Trump administration is entered into in the future, guidelines are presented that will only be allowed at the level of nuclear disarmament.
At the same time, Chairman Kim’s remarks are interpreted as intended to create tension for the moment, but also to keep future negotiations in mind. Even during the first term of the Trump administration, Chairman Kim raised the level of tension to the point where the possibility of war was raised through the sixth nuclear test and ICBM provocation in 2017, but the following year he participated in the North Korea-US summit. it is highly likely that Chairman Kim’s intention to recall the painful memories of the past ‘negotiations’ with the US this time was to ’raise the price’ with the future negotiation table with President-elect Trump in mind. Nam Sung-wook, director of Korea University’s Institute for Unification and Convergence, also said, “What North Korea wants is ultimately the will to coexist with the United States, including simultaneous possession of nuclear weapons.”
● Trump “I will get along well with Kim Jong-un”… There is also an observation that “the North Korean nuclear issue will be pushed to the bottom of the list.”
Whether Chairman Kim escalates tensions with a ‘serious provocation’ or shows his willingness to negotiate proactively, the key condition for the resumption of future North Korea-US negotiations is the attitude of President-elect Trump, who will enter the White House in January next year.
First of all, President-elect Trump has consistently criticized the Joe Biden administration’s policy toward North Korea and has hinted several times at the possibility of meeting Chairman Kim again. In September, right after North Korea revealed its uranium enrichment facility for the first time, then-presidential candidate Trump claimed at a press conference, “Most problems can be resolved by calling
However, some say that after President-elect Trump actually takes office, he will focus his attention on the war in Ukraine and the war in the Middle East, putting the North Korean nuclear issue on the back burner. A government source said, “Chairman Kim has experienced being stabbed in the back during Trump’s first term, so he will demand a higher ransom,” adding, “If President-elect Trump is not attracted to the North Korea-US summit that was held once, North Korea-US negotiations will be held in Trump’s second term.” “There is a possibility that it will just keep going in circles the whole time,” he said.
Reporter Shin Jin-woo [email protected]
Military reporter Sang-ho Yoon [email protected]
Reporter Ko Do-ye [email protected]
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- Kim Jong-un’s Remarks on Negotiations: Kim indicated a willingness to engage in negotiations with the U.S. for the first time, suggesting a potential shift in his approach. However, he emphasized that North Korea would not reduce its military capabilities and reiterated that strengthening its nuclear arsenal is a long-term policy.
- Context of Past Meetings: Kim’s comments seem to reflect on past unsuccessful negotiations with the Trump administration and show reluctance to engage without significant concessions from the U.S., such as the withdrawal of hostile policies and easing of sanctions.
- Trump’s Stance: President-elect Trump has previously remarked on his relationship with Kim and his desire to resume dialog. There’s speculation that he may prioritize other international conflicts over North Korea’s nuclear issue once he assumes office.
- Future Negotiations: Analysts suggest that for any future negotiations to occur, the conditions under Trump will be crucial. His past relationship with Kim could influence the depth and seriousness of any discussions, but there are concerns that the North Korean nuclear issue may not be prioritized given other global challenges.
- Overall Implications: The situation is precarious, with a possibility of heightened tensions or a thawing in relations depending on the actions of the incoming administration and Kim’s strategy. The North Korean leadership appears to be positioning itself for future negotiations while maintaining a strong stance on military capabilities.
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How might a second Trump administration affect the dynamics of negotiations with North Korea about its nuclear program?
The situation regarding North Korea and its nuclear ambitions remains complex and fluid, especially in light of recent statements from Chairman Kim Jong-un and the potential for a second Trump administration. Here’s a summary of the main points from the piece:
In essence, both leaders have a complicated history that will influence their future interactions, with an undercurrent of caution on both sides regarding the potential outcomes of talks. The global political landscape, especially with ongoing conflicts elsewhere, could significantly impact the nuclear discussions on the Korean Peninsula.