After the inauguration of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, according to international affairs expert Taras Semenyuk, is counting on changes in American policy that will reduce the military threat from Ukraine and reduce pressure on Russian infrastructure.
Western media such as Reuters report that Putin is ready for dialog with Donald Trump, which could include a ceasefire and freezing the conflict in Ukraine. One of the conditions for such negotiations is likely to be the preservation of the occupied territories under Russian control and Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO.
Taras Semenyuk believes that such conditions are unlikely, since the position of the Russian leader is difficult to influence diplomatically. He is confident that returning the occupied territories is only possible through military means. At the same time, Ukraine’s Western partners, trying to avoid escalation and World War III, are inclined to search for diplomatic solutions.
President Vladimir Zelensky previously noted that Donald Trump could use leverage on Russia, such as lowering energy prices. The expert confirms that falling oil prices can significantly reduce Russia’s income, depriving it of resources to continue the war. In this case, Russia may find itself even more dependent on China.
Semenyuk also emphasizes that the United States could tighten its sanctions policy. For example, adding Russia to the list of countries involved in money laundering or designating it as a sponsor of terrorism could cause serious economic harm. However, according to him, there is still no political consensus in the United States for such steps, which may be due to the presence of other strategic interests.
According to the expert, one of the key factors that worries Putin remains the threat of attacks on Russian infrastructure deep into the country. Allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons to attack Russian airfields and weapons production plants could significantly change the balance of power.
Semenyuk notes that such strikes could force Putin to reconsider his policies, especially since Russia cannot count on technical support from China or Iran. In addition, the destruction of key pieces of military infrastructure, such as strategic aviation bases located near the borders of Ukraine, would put Russia in a difficult position.
Thus, Putin hopes for a softening of American policies under Trump to avoid further attacks on Russian targets. However, as Semenyuk notes, the position of the future US president remains uncertain.
Earlier, Kursor wrote that the West simulated the destruction of the Russian Federation with a nuclear strike in response to Putin’s threats.
In response to President Vladimir Putin’s threats, Western countries also decided to demonstrate their vision of nuclear war scenarios.
How might Ukraine’s territorial integrity be affected by Russia’s growing dependence on China?
Interview Between Time.news Editor and International Affairs Expert Taras Semenyuk
Editor: Good day, Taras! Thank you for joining us today. With the inauguration of Donald Trump and the shifting dynamics in U.S.-Russian relations, how do you see Vladimir Putin’s approach evolving?
Semenyuk: Good day, and thank you for having me. After Trump’s inauguration, it seems Putin is banking on a more favorable posture from the U.S., hoping it will ease military threats from Ukraine and relieve pressure on Russia’s infrastructure. He appears to be positioning himself for dialogue, particularly surrounding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Editor: That’s a bold move on Putin’s part. What specifically are the conditions he might impose for negotiations?
Semenyuk: Well, reports from Western media, including Reuters, suggest that Putin may seek a ceasefire and a freeze on the current Ukrainian conflict. However, a key condition for such talks would likely include the preservation of occupied territories in Ukraine and assurances that Ukraine will not pursue NATO membership.
Editor: Do you believe these conditions will hold weight in negotiations?
Semenyuk: I’m doubtful. While dialogue is always preferable, the reality is that Putin’s diplomatic position is quite entrenched. Ukraine’s territorial integrity is a core issue for them, and there’s a widespread belief that any return of occupied lands will only come through military means. Thus, I think negotiations could falter on these points.
Editor: It appears the stakes are high. I understand Ukraine’s Western partners are also exploring ways to mitigate this conflict. How might they approach this?
Semenyuk: Absolutely. The Western nations, understandably keen to avoid further escalation or a potential World War III, seem inclined towards diplomatic outreach. They are likely looking for avenues to pressure Russia economically while ensuring that Ukraine receives the necessary military support.
Editor: Speaking of economic pressure, President Zelensky mentioned Trump’s potential influence over Russian energy prices. How important is that aspect?
Semenyuk: It’s crucial. Falling oil prices can significantly curb Russia’s revenue, impacting its ability to fund military operations. If the U.S. could help in this regard, it could effectively weaken Russia’s position and potentially make it more susceptible to negotiations. However, this may simultaneously heighten its reliance on China, which is a deeply worrying prospect.
Editor: That’s an intricate web of factors at play. What do you think are the implications for Ukraine if Russia’s dependence on China increases?
Semenyuk: An increased reliance on China could drastically alter Russia’s strategic calculus and would likely limit Ukraine’s options. It may also change the dynamics of global power, with China gaining even more leverage in this relationship. For Ukraine, it could mean facing an even more emboldened Russia, which could have ramifications for regional stability.
Editor: Thank you, Taras, for sharing your insights. It seems the next few months will be pivotal for all involved. We appreciate your perspective!
Semenyuk: Thank you for having me! It’s an evolving situation, and I look forward to seeing how it unfolds.