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Following the events ⁤in Aleppo, where Syrian rebels​ have achieved ‍success, the prospects for Russian participation in the Syrian conflict are becoming increasingly uncertain.

Military-political expert Alexander Musienko, head of the Center for⁤ Military-Legal Studies, in‌ an interview wiht​ the Telegraph YouTube channel, noted that Moscow will likely reduce its‌ support for the Bashar al-Assad regime.⁤ This is​ as ⁢Damascus did not provide real assistance to Russia in the war against Ukraine.

The expert recalled that back​ in ⁢2022, ‍when Russia faced⁤ its first serious losses in Ukraine, the Kremlin began actively attracting mercenaries from other countries, including Syria,‌ Lebanon and Libya. among the forces involved were supposed​ to be fighters from the ‌Lebanese Hezbollah, Syrian militias and even members of the ⁢Afghan army who fled ⁢to ⁤Iran after the arrival‍ of the Taliban. Russia planned​ to mobilize about 16 thousand people, but no more than 1,200 actually ⁣arrived. Some of these ‌mercenaries took part in the battles near Mariupol, while others tried to enter Europe through the Belarusian-Polish border, posing ​as refugees.

Now, ⁣according to Musienko, Russia has concentrated all its forces ‌on the war in ukraine,​ including aviation and resources. This has created favorable conditions for assad’s opponents,who are actively taking advantage of Moscow’s weakening positions ‌in Syria. In addition, Putin, by focusing on Ukraine, ignores‌ both Russia’s internal ‍problems and the decline of his influence in the countries of the Collective Security ⁣Treaty Association (CSTO). for example, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan⁢ openly criticizes the CSTO for its failure to support Yerevan in the conflict with ⁣Azerbaijan.

The expert emphasized that Russia ​cannot together conduct full-fledged military operations on two fronts – in ⁤Ukraine and Syria. At the same time, it may try to transfer ⁢resources from other ⁣regions, such as Mali or other African countries. However, it ⁢is‍ unlikely that the ⁣Kremlin will withdraw its forces deployed in Ukraine, since that is ⁣where the main efforts are concentrated.

According to Musienko, Russia’s final withdrawal from the Syrian war ‌will be​ a catastrophic blow‍ for it. This will look much ‌worse than the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. ⁣Then ‌Putin criticized⁢ Biden for his “defeat,” but⁣ now he himself⁢ may find himself ‍the⁣ object of ridicule from the ⁢world community.

Earlier, Kursor wrote that rebels in Syria ⁤eliminated the⁢ head of military intelligence, Assad.

Rebels in Syria‍ have eliminated one of the key figures ‌in the Bashar al-Assad ‌regime.

What ‍are the implications ‍of Russia’s diminishing support for the Assad regime in Syria?

Interview with Alexander Musienko:⁣ The Uncertainty of Russian Involvement in ⁤the Syrian Conflict

Editor of Time.news: ‍Today, we have ⁣the‍ privilege of speaking with Alexander ⁢Musienko, a military-political expert and head of the ‍Center for Military-Legal Studies. With⁤ the‍ recent developments in Aleppo and the shifting dynamics of‌ the Syrian conflict, we are looking forward to gaining insights on Russia’s role and‍ the implications⁢ for the region. Welcome, Alexander.

Alexander Musienko: ​Thank you⁢ for having me. It’s a critical‍ time‍ for Syria and the wider geopolitical ‍situation.

Editor: Let’s start with the current status ⁣of Russian involvement in Syria.​ You noted that Moscow’s support for the Assad regime is likely diminishing. Can you elaborate on ‌the reasons behind this shift?

Musienko:​ Indeed. The core reason⁢ lies in the fact that Damascus‍ has⁢ not effectively supported Russia in its conflict with Ukraine. as Russia detects the syrian regime’s failures, especially after suffering military losses, it becomes increasingly clear that the‍ Kremlin will prioritize its resources elsewhere.

Editor: That’s interesting. You mentioned that in 2022, Russia began to recruit mercenaries from several countries to bolster its army. What has been the outcome of these efforts?

Musienko: Russia intended to mobilize around 16,000 mercenaries, yet only about 1,200 actually arrived. Many of these individuals participated⁣ in ⁤combat ⁢near Mariupol while others ⁣attempted​ to reach Europe. This highlights both the challenges Russia faces in recruiting and the complexities of managing forces across multiple⁤ theaters of war.

Editor: With‌ Russia now concentrating its military efforts on ‍Ukraine, how do you ​see this affecting Assad’s opponents in Syria?

musienko: The current russian focus on Ukraine has created a power vacuum ​in Syria, which ⁣Assad’s opponents⁢ are ​eager⁣ to exploit. We are witnessing an increase⁣ in their activity partly due to⁣ Moscow’s reduced capabilities and attention. It ⁢will be essential for these opposition factions‍ to leverage this moment effectively.

Editor: You also pointed‌ out ⁢that President​ Putin is ⁢ignoring internal issues in Russia as well as declining influence within the⁤ Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). How does⁣ this impact ‍regional politics?

Musienko: ⁤Putin’s distractions with Ukraine have led to growing criticism from allies like Armenia, which feels⁢ abandoned in its conflicts with⁢ Azerbaijan. ⁢This ⁣could embolden other ⁢nations within the CSTO to question Moscow’s leadership and ⁤reliability, fundamentally shifting the balance of power in the region.

Editor: Moving forward, do you beleive Russia can maintain its military presence in both Ukraine and Syria concurrently?

Musienko: Russia cannot effectively operate ⁢on two fronts without⁢ stretching its resources too thin. While there⁤ might be attempts to​ reallocate forces from areas ⁢like⁣ Mali,⁣ it is highly likely that important engagements will remain focused on Ukraine, given the⁤ challenges faced there.

Editor: Should Russia ultimately withdraw from Syria,you suggest that this would have catastrophic implications. ⁣Why do you think that is⁢ the case?

Musienko: A withdrawal‌ from Syria would represent a significant loss of prestige and influence for Russia. Unlike the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which drew heavy criticism, a Russian exit could ‍be seen as an utter defeat, a perception ⁤that could diminish its standing ‍on the global‍ stage dramatically.

Editor: what practical advice can you give to our⁣ readers ‍regarding the⁤ potential future of the Syrian conflict amid these transitions?

Musienko: It’s ⁣critical to stay informed about the evolving political ‍landscape. Engaging with reputable sources and expert‌ analysis will provide a ⁣better understanding of ⁢the risks and opportunities⁣ arising in the region. Additionally, observers should ‍consider the global implications of these ‌military shifts, particularly how they impact international alliances ‌and regional stability.

Editor: Thank you,​ Alexander,⁣ for sharing your ‍insights today. this conversation sheds light on the complexities of the Syrian conflict and the geopolitical ramifications of Russia’s actions.