Three weeks before the first round of the presidential election, the contours of the final are beginning to take shape. Two competitors stand out: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, as in 2017. This is one of the main lessons from the seventh wave of the survey carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with the Sciences Po Political Research Center (Cevipof) and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for The world.
The strength of our panel is its amplitude, since the sample used is 13,749 people. Voting intentions in the first round are calculated from respondents “certain to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, or 8,790 people. Result: the margins of error for the first round are very low, between 0.1 and 1 point.
Preponderance of economic and social themes
The survey was carried out from March 10 to 14, ten days after the previous survey launched in addition to the sixth wave. Consequently, the balance of power between the candidates does not fundamentally change.
Emmanuel Macron is still largely in the lead, even if he is experiencing a drop in voting intentions. It thus loses 1.5 points and reaches 29% (margin of error of plus or minus 1 point). Almost double Marine Le Pen, his first pursuer.
At the beginning of March, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine had strengthened the candidacy of Mr. Macron, the latter appearing as the guarantor of stability, since already in power.
However, if the war remains the second concern of the French and it will play an important role in their choice of the first round, it is still far behind the purchasing power; For 53% of respondents, it is this question that worries them the most, against 44% for the war in Ukraine.
This preponderance of economic and social themes suits Marine Le Pen, who has rightly made it one of her major axes. Moreover, the candidate of the National Rally (RN) has experienced an increase of 1.5 points since the previous wave. His voting intentions reach 16% (margin of error of plus or minus 0.8 point). If she is far from Mr. Macron, she nevertheless stands out from the other contender of her political camp, the polemicist Eric Zemmour who remains at 13% (margin of error of plus or minus 0.7 point).
Marine Le Pen better prepared
The latter is experiencing, in fact, a stagnation of his campaign. Visibly tired, he spends a lot of time explaining and justifying his – pre-war – pro-Vladimir Putin statements and his refusal, then his reluctance, to welcome Ukrainian refugees. The rallying, announced with great fanfare, of Marion Maréchal, the niece of Marine Le Pen and former National Front deputy (ancestor of the RN) of Vaucluse, will therefore have had no effect on the dynamics of Mr. Zemmour.
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