Still without a budget for 2025 and now without a government, France finds itself in a new period of political uncertainty, paving the way for other new configurations. Risks of blockage, exit doors, future of budget texts… overview of the main issues raised by the political crisis.
Is the Prime Minister forced to resign after the censure is adopted?
What will happen to the bills presented by the Barnier government?
The government overthrown, some jurists questioned The world believe that all the texts under consideration are promptly buried. Starting from the budget texts under discussion in Parliament, and the most emblematic of all, the finance bill (PLF) for 2025. “The government could only guarantee the handling of “current affairs” », assure Aurélien Baudu, professor of public law at the University of Lille, and his colleague from the Paris-Cité University, Xavier Cabannes.
On the contrary, Mathieu Carpentier, professor of public law at the University of Toulouse-Capitole, advance What “Nothing in our recent parliamentary history justifies the claim that the overthrow of the government makes its texts obsolete”. The only prosperous motion of censure, voted in October 1962 against the Pompidou government, was followed by the dissolution of the National Assembly “which made all pending texts obsolete”continues the lawyer. But today the situation is different, as the President of the Republic cannot call legislative elections at least before July 2025.
“Both interpretations are defensible but, in light of the precedents of the fourth Republic, there are good reasons to believe that the PLF and the PLFSS will survive the motion of censureJulien Boudon also thinks. They could be taken up by a new government, including by changing it to a joint committee or a new reading, to express the political views of these new ministers. »
Is there a risk of a budget cut?
Due to government censorship, the chances of Parliament approving the budget for 2025 are reducing. The times are in fact too tight for a new project prepared
While the possibility that the state will not be able to incur expenses or collect revenue on January 1 is a technically possible scenario, the French legal system provides safeguards to avoid what would appear to be the American shutdown – which refers to the cessation of government activity due to the failure to reach agreement on the budget. This configuration has never occurred in the history of the Fifth Republic.
What realistic scenarios would allow the state to continue operating in 2025?
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This solution, though, would only be short-lived, especially in a context of ever-growing deficits. A number of budget lines would increase mechanically, such as the salaries of public employees. In the absence of an upward revision of the income tax scale to take account of inflation, “all French people would pay more taxes”the Budget Minister, Laurent Saint-Martin, also warned on Wednesday 27 November, on FranciaInter.
political uncertainty fuels investor distrust: it contributes to increasing the interest rates at which France borrows (already high) and can have repercussions on the stock market and the entire economy. The new government would therefore have every interest in presenting a new financial law for 2025 as soon as possible, which would replace this “automatic” budget once adopted by Parliament.
Is the president’s use of Article 16 of the Constitution a realistic hypothesis?
- It is necessary that “the institutions of the Republic, the independence of the nation, the integrity of its territory or the execution of its international commitments [soient] threatened in a serious and immediate way”…
- …and that “the regular functioning of constitutional public powers” OR<em
In theory, the President of the Republic has the power to appoint the person of his choice to Matignon. He has no legal obligation to choose a member of the largest group in the National Assembly. However, institutional logic does not allow them to prevail over the opinion of the majority of deputies, since a government that opposes them could be quickly overthrown by a motion of censure.The head of state should therefore choose a candidate who can obtain the support of the majority of deputies – or at least not arouse the rejection of the majority of them.
Nothing would stop Emmanuel Macron from renominating Michel Barnier, even though the latter has just been censured by deputies.
Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers Emmanuel Macron is already looking for a replacement for Michel Barnier, the prime minister on loanWhat is the caretaker government?
If the situation were to stall, the appointment of a “technical” government could become a way out. This involves the appointment of ministers without partisan affiliation to manage current affairs and implement some consensual reforms, with case-by-case support from the different political blocs in the Assembly.
This configuration, which Italy has already experienced several times in times of crisis, has never been very long-lasting. in fact, it is challenging for such an executive to maintain its position over time due to the lack of legitimacy at the polls. Above all, this hypothesis would soon clash with the difficulty of drawing up a new budget for 2025, while the different political groups were already struggling to find a consensus on the budget texts in recent weeks.
what is a government responsible for current affairs?
When a prime minister resigns,but his successor has not yet been appointed,he and his ministers remain in office temporarily to ”manage current affairs”,that is,to ensure the continuity of the state,its services,and thus the essential services and daily functioning of the administrations placed under their obligation. “A resigning minister is no longer truly a minister, but he is a minister, he cannot do anything, there are limits to his power”specified a World Benjamin Morel, professor of public law at the university of Paris-Panthéon-Assas, in July 2024.
A government in charge of managing current events cannot, in principle, adopt measures of a political nature: it cannot create new rights and duties for the population, adopt measures that are not already foreseen by existing and promulgated laws, nor make important appointments .But it can issue decrees, circulars and ordinances implementing laws already approved.
The powers of a resigning government,though,are not limited when the measures adopted are of an urgent nature. This emergency exception could allow the Barnier government to present, later this year, a special bill that would authorize it to continue collecting existing taxes until the vote on the year’s finance law.
When could the next dissolution of the National Assembly take place?
The National Assembly elected in July 2024 should therefore remain in office until at least next summer. For public law professor Julien Boudon, “the new dissolution could take place, at best, only on 8 July 2025, one year after the second round of the last legislative elections” – which would mean getting the French to vote at the end of July or mid-August, in the midst of the summer holidays.
Updated, December 4 at 11am : correction, at your request, of a quote from Julien Boudon on the future of invoices after censorship.
What is the role of a caretaker government in maintaining stability during political uncertainty?
Orms. This type of government is often seen as a temporary solution during periods of political uncertainty or deadlock. It operates with the aim of maintaining stability and continuity in governance while paving the way for future elections or a more permanent political solution.
In such a scenario, the caretaker government woudl focus on essential functions, ensuring that the state’s basic operations remain intact, including managing public services and fulfilling international obligations. The selection of ministers would prioritize expertise and non-partisan credentials over political affiliations to foster trust and cooperation among various factions within the government and the legislature.
These measures, while not ideal, would ensure that critical government functions continue and that the nation avoids heightened political turmoil, which could lead to a crisis in governance.However, the long-term effectiveness of a caretaker government depends on it’s ability to negotiate and build consensus among differing political groups to facilitate a return to a fully functioning parliamentary process.
Ultimately, understanding the complexities of this political climate is essential for anticipating how France’s governance might evolve in response to ongoing challenges and uncertainties.