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Emmanuel Macron in Egypt – ANSA
On this side of the Atlantic we don’t call him a “lame duck”, as Americans do when a leader fails and loses control of parliament. But upon closer inspection, there are two “lame ducks” over the banks of the Rhine here in Europe, Germany and France. Berlin and Paris, the deadly Carolingian axis, the driving force of Europe, the unbreakable alliance between two ancient enemies who were allies in the leadership – for many years tingance with arrogance often bordering on arrogance towards less virtuous countries – of ‘Union where Everything (or almost everything) was determined by the unbreakable relationship between the two political and economic giants.
Today, after a vote of no confidence by Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement Nationale and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Insoumise which earned the interrupted government of Michel Barnier, it is indeed clear to everyone that the target of the two arch enemy factions – the populist, national right, xenophobic and dominant and the Jacobite gentleman who will be focused on fraternité and the war on the privileges of the rich – it is not Palais Matignon, but the tenant of the Elysée, that Emmanuel Macron earns the nickname King Solo in this trembling moment.
Because Macron,the most narcissistic president of France,still dose not believe in the possibility of defeat. But it is indeed in front of her eyes. It is indeed true that before one year after the elections, you cannot go back to voting, so the assembly will not be dissolved until next summer. But the big target, it has been said, is himself, Macron. Who could and according to many should resign, according to the ruthless parliamentary attack from the two big wings. but it is unlikely that he will do so.
Prisoner of his self-representation which he tries to superimpose every day on the reality of the country, the former boy prodigy who dreamed of becoming an actor and came to the forefront of the Hollande government after spending time at Ena (the t-École Nationale d’Management ) and then at the Rothschild Bank, from which he has already become a millionaire in euros, today he has an unprecedented reality consisting of two records: the first vote no confidence in government since 1962. (at the time it fell under Georges Pompidou and De Gaulle had to accept his resignation) and the shortest executive – that’s Barnier – since 1958. but Macron, the “King Alone”, can record also foster another, this time fully personal : 72% of the French people do not consider him a good head of state and an Ipsos poll for le Monde shows that 52% of the french people think he should resign.
Behind the lonely shadow of Macron, the ex-teen who loved Picasso’s Les Demoiselles d’Avignon above all else, read Gide, played the piano and switched to listening to Charles Aznavour , France is shocked and alarmed that it no longer believes in the president. and even less - despite the allure of the old statesman Barnier, the European negotiator with Brexit – in prime minister. The 2025 budget law provides for tax increases and 60 billion euros of cuts in public spending and on the horizon is a public deficit of around 6 percent, to close to its Italian cousins for the government to worry about.However, “Le Roi Seul” inspires confidence. Resign? Political fantasy,he says.He will wait, he will stand, he will overcome the obstacle of despair.
But it’s not just the French who will lose out. A Europe that is vulnerable to its own leaders is a Europe that is vulnerable, at the mercy of stakes and storms. And not so much because for better or for worse (for worse, mostly) Paris is, after Britain’s exit from the EU, the only nation equipped with a nuclear deterrent, nor because france without compasses corresponds to Europe without values. The trouble concerns us all: the constellation that has been too long in the hands of Brussels waiting for the Carolingian Paris-Berlin axis to heal its wounds is perhaps worse than France brought to its knees by the eruptions of the opposite extremists. Donald Trump will arrive in Paris on Saturday for the Notre Dame reopening ceremony. A man destined to claim all power, like the monarch of the early Middle Ages. Macron would pay gold to take some of it away.
How might the shifting dynamics in Franco-German relations impact the future of the European Union?
Title: The Changing Winds of European Leadership: An Interview with Political Analyst Clara Dumont
Setting: The virtual conference room of Time.news, where editor James Robinson sits down with Clara Dumont, a leading political analyst specializing in European affairs.
James Robinson (Editor, Time.news): Welcome, Clara! Thank you for joining us today. There’s been a notable shakeup in European politics lately, especially with the leadership in France and Germany. Could you give us a brief overview of the current situation?
Clara Dumont (Political Analyst): Thank you for having me, James. The situation is indeed tumultuous. Both President Macron in France and Chancellor Scholz in Germany are facing considerable challenges. Their recent difficulties, particularly in establishing a firm grip on their governments and sustaining parliamentary support, have raised questions about their influence and stability. In a sense, they’re both “lame ducks,” even tho we don’t typically use that term on this side of the Atlantic.
James Robinson: Engaging! the concept of “lame duck” leadership seems to resonate in both contexts. Can you elaborate on how this term applies specifically to Macron and Scholz?
Clara Dumont: Absolutely.Macron’s government recently faced a vote of no confidence, primarily from Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement Nationale and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Insoumise.This indicates a serious lack of parliamentary support, which weakens his ability to govern effectively. Similarly, Scholz is navigating a coalition government where his authority is continually tested by internal dissent and external pressures. Together, they represent a larger trend of uncertainty in European leadership, especially as they grapple with domestic and EU-wide challenges.
James Robinson: It seems like the longstanding Franco-German alliance is being tested. Historically, this partnership has been pivotal for the European Union. How do you see the current dynamics affecting Europe as a whole?
Clara Dumont: The Franco-German axis has indeed been the backbone of EU policy and action for decades. Though, with both leaders in precarious positions, we may see a shift in the balance of power within Europe. Other countries may feel emboldened to assert their interests more strongly, which could lead to a more fragmented EU. This is perilous, especially with challenges like economic recovery, climate change, and geopolitical tensions on the rise.
James Robinson: Given this context, what do you think the future holds for Macron and Scholz? Can they regain their footing, or are we witnessing a essential change in leadership within Europe?
Clara Dumont: Regaining footing is certainly possible, but it will require both leaders to adapt their strategies considerably. They need to find common ground with their opposition, rally public support, and perhaps even redefine their roles within the EU. The upcoming elections and policy initiatives will be crucial. If they can successfully navigate these hurdles, they may not be “lame ducks” for long. However, if the current trends continue, we might witness a shift towards newer leadership models in Europe.
James Robinson: That’s a compelling perspective, clara. Before we wrap up, what advice woudl you give to European leaders facing similar challenges to ensure stability and cohesion in their governments?
Clara Dumont: I’d advise them to prioritize communication and collaboration, not just with their immediate political allies but also with the opposition and the public. Transparent governance and inclusive policies can definitely help rebuild trust. Additionally, they should focus on uniting around shared European goals rather than allowing national interests to create divisions. This collaborative approach could rejuvenate their leadership and strengthen the EU overall.
James Robinson: Thank you, Clara. It sounds like a crucial time for European leaders, and your insights are invaluable. We appreciate you joining us today!
Clara Dumont: Thank you, James! It’s been a pleasure to discuss these pressing issues.
As the interview concludes, the camera fades out, leaving viewers to ponder the complexities of European leadership as they navigate through unprecedented times.