The French House of representatives passed a motion of no confidence in the administration led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier on the 4th. As a result, the current cabinet of Prime Minister Barnier, who took office on September 5th of this year, resigned en masse after three months, making it the shortest-lived government in the history of the Fifth Republic, established in 1958. it has been 62 years since the french government collapsed due to a vote of no confidence in the House of Representatives, since then-Prime Minister Georges Pompidou in 1962.
Due to this situation, the processing of next year’s budget has become unclear. If the budget is not processed by the end of the year, a ‘shutdown’ situation cannot be ruled out, paralyzing public administration such as pension and health insurance payments for the first time in the 5th Republic. Some in the opposition are even demanding President Emmanuel Macron’s resignation.
The political turmoil in France is expected to have a notable impact on the international situation, including in Europe.Germany, where the coalition government led by the ruling Social Democratic Party recently collapsed, is also expected to hold a vote of confidence in Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the 16th. Ther are predictions that the entire Europe will be affected as both major powers in the European Union (EU) experience political turmoil due to the prolongation of the war in Ukraine and the return to power of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who is pressuring Europe to increase it’s share of defense costs.
● ‘90-day short-lived’ spending reduction budget
On this day, the motion of no confidence in the Barnier government, proposed by the left-wing alliance New Popular Front (NFP), was passed in the House of Representatives with 331 votes in favor out of 577 seats. This is the result of the far-right National Coalition (RN), which proposed a no-confidence motion along with the NFP, and its sympathizers, all voting in favor. accordingly,Prime Minister Barnier received a vote of no confidence in the House of Representatives just 90 days after taking office and decided to submit his resignation on the 5th. He is the shortest-serving prime minister in the history of the Fifth Republic.
President Macron, a member of the centrist Renaissance Party, formed a ‘cohabitation government’ with Prime Minister Barnier, a member of the orthodox right-wing Republican Party, in September this year. The pan-ruling party to which President Macron belongs failed to secure a majority, winning only 168 seats (second place) in the general election this June. At that time, the first place was the NFP, and the third place was the extreme right wing of RN and Solidarity.
Prime Minister Barnier, who came into power, announced a budget plan for 2025 that aims to reduce public spending to resolve the fiscal deficit, which reached 154 billion euros (about 229 trillion won) last year.The plan is to reduce government spending by 40 billion euros (about 60 trillion won) next year alone and increase taxes by 20 billion euros (about 30 trillion won).
This is because the increased national debt is threatening an economy with persistent low growth. According to the New York Times (NYT), France’s deficit this year is expected to reach at least 6.1% of gross domestic product (GDP). It is more than twice the limit (3%) stipulated by the EU.
NFP and RN strongly opposed the plan due to concerns about a reduction in welfare benefits. Prime Minister Barnier, who judged that it would be difficult to pass the budget in a situation where the ruling and opposition parties are divided, passed the Social Security Finance Bill, the core of the budget, on the 2nd by invoking Article 49, Paragraph 3 of the Constitution, which allows the government to pass the bill without a vote in the House of Representatives. Then, the left and far right camps vehemently opposed it and proposed a no-confidence motion. As this bill was passed, the Prime Minister eventually resigned.
● “Political chaos, risk of shaking financial markets”
Faced with a major crisis, President Macron decided to address the nation on the 5th. As calls for his resignation were raised, mainly from extreme left-wing parties, he dismissed rumors of his resignation, saying, “I will exert all my energy until the last moment” during his visit to Saudi Arabia the previous day.Reuters reported that President Macron hopes to appoint a new prime minister ahead of the ceremony to celebrate the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral,scheduled for the 7th.
Economic uncertainty is also growing. The NYT said that with no sign of the budget being passed, political chaos is only increasing, and expressed concern that “there is a risk of shaking up the financial markets.” The British Financial Times (FT) predicted that if political instability continues, the risk of investing in French assets, such as bonds, will increase.
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Interview between Time.news Editor and Political Analyst on the Recent French Government Crisis
Time.news Editor: Welcome to our interview section! Today, we’re delving into the recent political turmoil in France following the no-confidence motion passed against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, marking the shortest government tenure in the history of the Fifth Republic.To unpack this situation,I’m pleased to welcome renowned political analyst,Dr. Claire Martin.Claire, thank you for joining us today.
Dr. Claire Martin: Thank you for having me! It’s grate to be here.
Time.news Editor: The motion of no confidence led to Prime Minister Barnier’s resignation just 90 days into his position. What does this rapid turnover indicate about the current political climate in France?
Dr. Claire Martin: It certainly reflects a deep-seated instability within the French political system. Barnier’s administration was already precarious due to a lack of a clear majority in the House of Representatives. The complex interplay between the ruling coalition and opposition parties, specifically the New Popular Front and the National Coalition, showed that compromise was arduous to achieve. This situation highlights not only political fragmentation but also the urgency of economic challenges that Barnier attempted to tackle with stringent budget measures.
Time.news Editor: Speaking of economic challenges, Barnier had proposed a budget aimed at reducing public spending and increasing taxes, triggering severe backlash. How might this challenge the government’s credibility and stability moving forward?
Dr. Claire Martin: Barnier’s budget plan aimed to address a meaningful fiscal deficit, but the harsh measures proposed—like slashing benefits—were bound to provoke strong opposition. His decision to invoke Article 49, Paragraph 3 to bypass a vote was particularly controversial and led to the no-confidence motion. The government’s credibility has been substantially undermined; it signals that the administration might not be able to effectively handle the economic problems at hand or unite political factions behind a sustainable fiscal strategy.
Time.news Editor: With Barnier out, how might this shift the power dynamics, both within France and in the broader EU context, especially with Germany also facing challenges?
Dr.Claire Martin: We’re likely to see considerable turbulence. The collapse of both the French and german leadership has significant implications for EU cohesion. France and Germany have traditionally been seen as the driving forces of EU policy, especially in response to geopolitical issues like the conflict in Ukraine and rising security concerns. If political instability continues, as we anticipate, it may weaken the EU’s ability to present a united front on these pressing matters, potentially emboldening populist movements in other member states.
Time.news editor: President Macron has signaled intentions to appoint a new prime minister swiftly. What should he consider in this process to regain confidence among the electorate and the political establishment?
Dr. claire Martin: Macron will need to choose someone who not only has strong political acumen but can also bridge the divides within the National Assembly. They must present a compelling narrative that can resonate with the public, particularly in addressing economic concerns. Communication will be key; initiating open dialogues with opposition parties, emphasizing social safety nets, and reengaging with citizens will be crucial to restore public trust.In essence, he needs a leader who can instill hope amid uncertainty.
Time.news Editor: Lastly, could you address the potential implications for the financial markets with this ongoing political uncertainty in France?
Dr. Claire Martin: Absolutely. The financial markets hate uncertainty, and the current political chaos has the potential to spook investors. If budgetary processes stall and the risk of a government shutdown looms, we could see a significant impact on French bonds and potentially broader European markets. Investors will be closely watching how the government plans to navigate this crisis; sustained turmoil could lead to increased risk premiums and decrease confidence in French assets.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Dr. Martin, for providing such insightful analysis on this critical issue. The political landscape in France and its implications for the EU will be captivating to watch in the coming days.
Dr. Claire Martin: It’s my pleasure! I look forward to seeing how this all unfolds.