Let’s take the same ones and start again. In Ireland, after the legislative elections on friday 29 November, the two center-right parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, seem destined to remain in power. The results are still partial, but irreversible. In total, 153 seats out of the 174 in the lower house of parliament were assigned. Deputy prime minister Micheál Martin’s fianna Fail won 40, Prime Minister Simon Harris’ Fine Gael 33.On the other hand, the Greens, their coalition partner, will have to give up their seat after a breathtaking defeat: they lost 11 of the 12 seats it had in parliament. Originally scheduled for May, the elections were brought forward and the shortened campaign left little time for debate.
Final results will still have to wait, due to a complex system of proportional depiction in which voters rank candidates in order of preference.This has the advantage of favoring small parties and independent candidates, but requires several days to know the full results.
Sinn Féin “missed its appointment” with power
However, “ Theit is certain that the future government will include Fianna Fail and Fine Gael and that Sinn Féin will remain in opposition », Comments Christophe Gillissen, professor of British civilization at the University of Caen. Sinn Féin, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) paramilitary group that confronted the British during the decades of troubles in Northern Ireland, “ missed his appointment » with power, notes the academic.
This party, with 34 seats obtained on Monday according to partial results, is considered too controversial and too left-wing to be included in the outgoing coalition. Even this group, led by the very popular Mary Lou McDonald, also present in Northern Ireland and very close to young people due to her social concerns, is unable to build a coalition on the left. However, in February 2020 he created a surprise by coming first in the parliamentary elections. His positions in favor of immigration at the time of the anti-migrant riots in Dublin as well as on the right to asylum”, less in tune with those of his electorate », partly explain its decline, according to Christophe Gillissen.
the Irish government, for its part, responded to Irish anger and took steps to reduce aid to Ukrainian refugees and increase controls to limit arrivals of illegal migrants through the Common travel Area (ZTC) – between the UK, the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man and Ireland. Housing and immigration, at the forefront of Irish concerns, have been exploited by far-right movements, still very much in the minority but very active on social networks.The most right-wing party, Aontú, it is indeed rather a traditionalist current with very conservative ideas », notes Christophe Gillissen. And it remains a minority.
To secure a cozy majority in parliament, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will most likely form a coalition with one or two compatible centre-left parties, such as the labor Party and/or the Social Democratic Party.They don’t weigh much,so they should be accommodating. The negotiations are expected to conclude with the official resumption of the new parliament on December 18.
An Exclusive Interview with Christophe Gillissen: Insights on teh Recent Irish Legislative Elections
Interviewer (Time.news Editor): Thank you for joining us today, Professor Gillissen. Let’s dive right into the recent Irish legislative elections held on November 29. What implications do you see emerging from the election results?
Christophe Gillissen: Thank you for having me. The implications are significant for Irish politics. With Fianna Fail and fine Gael remaining in power—Fianna Fail securing 40 seats and Fine Gael 33—the country is likely to see continued centre-right governance. This leaves Sinn Féin, despite their 34 seats, in opposition, which is quite notable given their previous surge in popularity in the 2020 elections.
Interviewer: Sinn Féin’s decline seems to be a focal point. Can you explain why they were unable to form a coalition this time around?
christophe Gillissen: Absolutely. Sinn Féin,historically linked to the IRA,has frequently enough struggled with its controversial past. Although they initially resonated well with the electorate on numerous social issues, they have recently faced backlash, particularly regarding their immigration policies and stance during the anti-migrant riots in Dublin. Their inability to connect on these key issues ultimately hindered their coalition-building efforts.
Interviewer: The election results reported a significant loss for the Greens, who lost 11 out of 12 seats. What does this signify for the party and its environmental agenda?
Christophe Gillissen: The Greens’ defeat reflects a broader electoral trend where climate issues may have taken a back seat to pressing concerns like housing and immigration.Their loss likely indicates that current coalition partners, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, will need to reconsider their environmental policies if they wish to maintain a support base that cares about sustainability.
Interviewer: There’s been talk about the potential for coalitions with center-left parties, such as the Labor Party and the Social Democratic Party. What role do you envision them playing in the upcoming government?
Christophe Gillissen: Forming a coalition with these smaller parties could provide Fianna Fail and Fine Gael with the majority needed for stability in Parliament. Although these parties hold fewer seats and may have less influence, they will likely be keen to engage in negotiations that could secure some concessions on social issues, perhaps softening the center-right approach.
Interviewer: The electoral system in Ireland is quite complex, utilizing proportional portrayal. How does this influence the overall political landscape?
Christophe Gillissen: The proportional representation system allows for a more diverse representation of political views, favoring smaller parties and independents. However, it also complicates the process of forming stable governments since parties must work together to create governing coalitions. This complexity can lead to negotiation stalemates, but it ultimately reflects a more nuanced opinion of the electorate.
Interviewer: Given the context of rising tensions in society, especially surrounding topics like immigration and housing, what advice would you give to voters and political leaders moving forward?
Christophe Gillissen: its crucial for voters to remain engaged and to understand the implications of their choices.For political leaders, addressing the concerns of the populace—be it immigration or housing—is vital for maintaining legitimacy. They must foster effective dialogue and seek to find common ground with all factions in society to ensure a stable and cohesive political surroundings in Ireland.
Interviewer: Thank you, Professor Gillissen, for these valuable insights. It seems Ireland is navigating a pivotal political moment that will shape its future direction.
Christophe Gillissen: My pleasure. The coming weeks and months will certainly be critical as negotiations unfold and the new parliament takes shape. We’ll have to see how effectively the leaders can address the pressing issues on the ground.