Published: 09 December 2024 at 07:49Last updated: 09 December 2024 at 07:49
The rebel group hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the lightning offensive against the capital, is an Islamist movement that has controlled parts of northwestern Syria for several years.
The group has been described as one of the most extremist in Syria, though far from as extreme as ISIS. In recent years, it has also attempted too moderate its image, in part by distancing itself from its former ally al-Qaeda – the group responsible for the terrorist attacks in the USA on September 11, 2001.
However, this has not been enough to convince Western countries that it has fully renounced extremist jihadism, and analysts are divided in their views on whether the group can still be labeled jihadist and should retain its terrorist designation.
Struck back after eight years
HTS’s offensive began with a blitz against Aleppo, a city that had been under the control of the forces of the ousted president Bashar al-Assad as the end of 2016.
The revenge came eight years later, and in recent days, the entire Aleppo has been under rebel control after government soldiers hastily abandoned the city.
The rebels quickly continued south, capturing the major cities of Hama and Homs in rapid succession before advancing towards the capital.All the way, the government forces retreated without resistance. And in the early hours of Sunday,Damascus fell.
HTS – formerly known as the Nusra Front – claims that it no longer has any connection to al-Qaeda and that it broke with the international jihadist group in 2016.
The following year, the group changed its name, and members with links to al-Qaeda and ISIS were arrested, according to the think tank International Crisis Group (ICG). However, the group is still designated as a terrorist institution by the USA and the EU.
Ambitions for power
In large parts of the Idlib province, HTS has established a so-called “salvation government.” This government manages the economy, judiciary, and welfare services of the rebel bastion.
– In parts of northwestern Syria, the rebels have begun to establish and further develop already existing governance structures.This indicates that they have ambitions to govern and maintain control, writes the New York-based consulting firm Soufan Group.
– Some of this was implemented several years ago, with advanced attempts to subsidize food prices and stabilize the banking and energy sectors in the areas controlled by HTS, the group further writes.
jerome Drevon, a jihadism expert at ICG, stated before the fall of the Assad regime that HTS provides the population with basic services, and that the group also collaborates with American aid organizations to channel emergency assistance to millions of people.
Although some view HTS’s governance as authoritarian, the group contributes to a more consistent form of governance than what is the case in other parts of Syria, according to drevon.
He believes HTS now acts as a purely rebel group with domestic political goals and without any connection to international terrorism. This is the reality regardless of the reasons why they broke with al-Qaeda several years ago – whether it was a tactical decision to avoid unwanted attention from the USA or not, he points out.
French journalist wassim Nasr met HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani last year. He also believes that the group has undergone meaningful changes.
– He and his group no longer feel obligated to carry out what may be understood as international jihad; it was crystal clear.They believe it has only led to destruction and collapse in their societies, the journalist said in an interview published by the Combating Terrorism Centre at the US Military Academy West Point.
– Women go to school, women drive cars, you see people smoking in the streets. They are obviously far from embracing democratic values or the values of a liberal and free society, but it is indeed a change, he says.
Other experts are more skeptical. They warn that the group has not made a essential break with its past, even though it has changed its appearance.
Among them is Tammy Lynn Palacios from the research institute new Lines Institute in Washington. She believes HTS has been “incredibly opportunistic” regarding whom they have allied with and been in contact with.
– Until HTS leadership manages to sever connections between its members and more extreme jihadist groups and individuals, it remains a jihadist organization, she claims.
– Al-Qaeda is not done with HTS, no matter how done HTS is with al-Qaeda, and therefore nothing but a public and formal rejection of al-Qaeda can truly reduce the threat from jihadist extremism in northwest Syria, she adds.
defends the terrorist label
They also believe that HTS will struggle to rid itself of its terrorist label in Western countries, as the Taliban has done in Afghanistan. The Taliban government is still not internationally recognized, even though it has been in power in the country for over three years.
– If one has to ask for permission from al-Qaeda’s leadership before breaking ties with al-Qaeda, the sincerity of the ideological reorientation is questionable, he tells AFP.
– There is absolutely there’s no doubt whatsoever that they should still be listed as a terrorist group, he asserts.
Fear of what is to come
HTS leader al-Jolani has promised to protect Syria’s religious minorities. but many Syrians are still afraid of what awaits them with HTS in power.
This is especially true for Syria’s Kurdish population. Kurds have experienced discrimination and abuses in areas previously controlled by the rebels.
The Kurdish SDF militia currently controls about 30 percent of the country,including Hasakeh province in the northeast,most of the two provinces Raqqa and Deir al-Zor,and parts of Aleppo province.
On Sunday, the same day the Assad regime fell, reports emerged that rebels had launched attacks on a Kurdish-led militia in the city of Manbij in Aleppo province in northwestern Syria.
Turkey,one of the major players in the Syrian backdrop,is very reluctant to have a strong Kurdish region in the country.
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Facts about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leads a rebel alliance that has seized Damascus and ousted President Bashar al-Assad.
- HTS was established in 2012,at the beginning of the Syrian Civil War,but was then called the Nusra Front.
- the group had direct links to al-Qaeda,and the then-ISIS leader Abu bakr al-Baghdadi was involved in its establishment.
- The driving force seemed to be jihadist ideology rather than replacing the Assad regime with a more democratic governance.
- The Nusra front appeared as a rival to the rebel alliance known as the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which was formed by defectors from the government army.
- In 2016, leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani announced that the Nusra Front had broken ties with al-Qaeda. The following year, the group merged with several other rebel groups and took the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
- Since then, the group’s goal of establishing a strict Islamic governance has been limited to Syria, unlike ISIS, which seeks a caliphate across borders.
- HTS has been the dominant power in Idlib province in northwestern Syria in recent years. Approximately 4 million people live there, many of whom are internally displaced from other parts of Syria.
- A Russia weakened by the war in Ukraine, the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon, and Israel’s attacks on Iranian targets in Syria have likely contributed to the successful storm offensive that ended with Assad’s fall.
- HTS has not indicated in recent years that it would challenge Assad’s control over most of the country – until now.
Source: BBC
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What are the potential impacts of HTS’s governance on local populations in Syria?
Graph “>HTS’s transformation and its claim to governance raise significant questions about the future stability of the region. Observers express concern that as HTS consolidates its power, it could lead to further conflict and instability, particularly if it attempts to exert control beyond its current territory. The group’s past ties to al-Qaeda and its current governance practices will be closely watched, as there may be a potential for resurgence in extremist ideologies if its leadership does not remain firmly committed to moderation and local governance.
While some local populations may initially welcome the services HTS provides, the long-term implications of their rule could be complex and lead to cycles of violence and oppression if dissent is not tolerated. Additionally, the specter of external influences, including foreign interventions and shifting alliances, may further complicate the situation, leaving communities vulnerable to a repeat of the past turmoil that has characterized the Syrian conflict.
Experts continue to debate HTS’s trajectory,with many asserting that the international community must tread carefully in its approach. There remains a delicate balance between addressing humanitarian needs in areas under HTS control and the inherent risks of legitimizing a group with a violent past. Thus, the future development of HTS and its governance is uncertain, and its label as a terrorist institution remains a crucial point of contention in dealing with the evolving political landscape in Syria and the broader region.