Iran is losing an vital strategic ally in Assad. Assad, and therefore Syria, was an important building block in the anti-Israel and anti-Western alliance created by tehran, described by Tehran as the “Axis of Resistance” and the West as the “axis of Evil”.
Tehran – together with Russia – financed and assisted the Assad government militarily, also to use Syria as a land corridor for the Hezbollah militia in lebanon. Iran supplied most of the weapons to Hezbollah through syria.Israel has repeatedly tried to disrupt this corridor with targeted attacks in recent years, but has never been triumphant in the long term.
debate
What does the fall of Assad mean?
Turning for “Resistance back”?
With the change of power in Syria, Iran’s middle East policy – and especially the fight against arch-enemy Israel – is coming to an end. Critics accuse the Iranian leadership of wasting billions of US dollars due to its miscalculations in Syria. Iran felt compelled to emphasize on Sunday afternoon that Assad never asked for help during the latest rebel offensive.
Some even see the fall of Assad as the biggest turning point for the “Axis of Resistance” created by Iran against Israel. After the killing of the foreign leader of Hamas Ismail Haniya and the head of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah and now the escape of Assad, three top figures of the “Axis” were eliminated within a few months.
A member of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC),which kept the Assad government alive for a long time,compared the events in Syria to the fall of the Berlin Wall,an Iranian reporter reported for the New York Times.
Expert on influences in the Middle East
Islamic scholar Walter Posch explains how the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad could lead to power changes in the Middle East.
Iran: Let the people decide
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs tried on Sunday to limit the damage as much as possible through diplomatic channels
Due to the fact that the rebels who overthrew Assad, according to experts, were largely supported by Turkey also weakens Iran in its ongoing struggle for regional influence with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
In addition,the regime in Tehran is worried about the return of Donald Trump to the White House. China will continue to support iran – especially as an oil supplier.
But it will be engaging to see how saudi Arabia reacts: Given iran’s weakness, Riyadh could try diplomatically to get Iran to impose a border on Yemen (ie help the Houthi militia). Alternatively,it could halt the course of rapprochement in recent months and thus further isolate Iran politically and economically.
Tehran seems to have little hope from Russia. Moscow seems to be fully engaged in the war in Ukraine and probably has little reserve left. That may also be why Moscow stood by and watched Assad fall.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of “a historic day in the history of the Middle East.” During a visit to the occupied Golan Heights, Netanyahu said: ”The Assad regime is a central part of Iran’s axis of evil – this regime has fallen.”
And netanyahu claimed that he played a critically important role in the overthrow of Assad. Because “this is a direct result of the blows we dealt with Iran and Hezbollah”. This triggered a chain reaction in the Middle East. Now there are “critically important opportunities” for Israel, but there are also threats.
The Israeli army sent soldiers to the demilitarized buffer zone with Syria in the Golan Heights. “given the developments in Syria and on the basis (…) that armed groups may enter the buffer zone,” the Israeli army said on Sunday. Netanyahu spoke of a temporary measure to ensure the safety of his own people in the Golan heights.
The Israeli air force also carried out several airstrikes on Sunday – particularly in Damascus. According to Israeli intelligence, the target was, among other things, a chemical weapons factory. A research center where, according to Israel, Iranian scientists are developing medium-range missiles, was also attacked.This is another setback for Iran and Hezbollah.
A military base, said to have a large missile cache, was also attacked. According to reports in the Israeli media, the aim of the airstrikes is to prevent such weapons from falling into the hands of the rebels. There were also Israeli airstrikes in other parts of the country, including in the immediate vicinity of the border. The population was then asked not to leave their homes.
How might Iran shift it’s strategy in the Middle East following changes in Syria’s government?
Interview between Time.news Editor, Sarah Johnson, and Middle Eastern Affairs Expert, Dr. Amir Khalil
Sarah Johnson: Thank you for joining us today, Dr. khalil. The situation in Syria has taken a dramatic turn, and many are speculating about the implications of Assad potentially losing power. Can you elaborate on the meaning of this for Iran and its regional interests?
Dr. Amir Khalil: Absolutely, Sarah. The fall of Assad would mark a pivotal shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. For Iran, Assad’s regime has been a cornerstone of what is often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance,” which also includes Hezbollah in Lebanon and other anti-Israeli forces. Losing Assad means losing a vital ally and a crucial corridor for arms supply to Hezbollah, which considerably undermines iran’s ability to project power in the region.
Sarah Johnson: You mentioned the “Axis of Resistance.” could you explain how the relationship between Iran and Assad shaped the dynamics of this alliance?
Dr. Amir Khalil: Certainly.Iran’s support for Assad was not purely ideological; it was also strategic. By backing Assad, Iran aimed to establish a foothold in Syria that would facilitate the flow of weapons and resources to Hezbollah. This alliance was viewed by Tehran as a way to counter Western influence and Israeli military actions in the region. If Assad falls, Iran’s ability to maneuver within this framework will be heavily compromised.
Sarah Johnson: We’ve also seen Israel take proactive measures to disrupt Iran’s operations in Syria. Have these actions been effective,and how might they change with the potential shift in power?
Dr. Amir Khalil: Israel’s operations have indeed targeted Iranian positions and supply routes in Syria, but as of now, they haven’t succeeded in eliminating this corridor entirely. With a change in governance in Syria, Israeli strategies may pivot. If a more antagonistic regime were to emerge, Israel might feel compelled to increase its military interventions to prevent the establishment of another Iranian-supported government. Conversely, if a less aligned government comes to power, Israel might find its security posture somewhat relaxed, depending on how the new regime approaches relations with Iran.
Sarah Johnson: Many critics suggest that Iran has wasted substantial resources in supporting Assad. What are your thoughts on this assessment?
Dr. Amir Khalil: That criticism is indeed prevalent. Some analysts argue that Iran has invested billions of dollars in Syria,not just in military aid but also in reconstruction efforts,only to potentially lose its strategic benefits. They view this as a critically important miscalculation,notably given the ongoing unrest and the rebellion against Assad. Tehran’s leadership has downplayed this notion recently, stating that Assad never explicitly requested help during the latest offensive, which seems like an attempt to distance themselves from the repercussions of a potential downfall.
Sarah Johnson: if Assad were to fall, what does that mean for Iran’s broader strategies and ambitions in the Middle East?
Dr. Amir khalil: If Assad’s regime tumbles, Iran will likely face a serious setback in its Middle Eastern ambitions. They may be forced to reassess their strategy, particularly regarding their support for proxy groups like Hezbollah. Tehran might shift its focus to fortifying other alliances or attempting to influence new emerging powers in Syria to create a new axis that could preserve its interests. It’s also plausible that they would increase their operations in Iraq or Yemen to maintain their regional influence.
Sarah Johnson: It’s a complex situation, to say the least. what do you foresee as the moast significant implications of the current turbulence in Syria for wider regional stability?
Dr. Amir Khalil: The repercussions could be significant. The fall of Assad might embolden other anti-Iran factions within the region and could lead to increased tensions involving Israel, Turkey, and even Saudi Arabia. On the flip side, it could also create opportunities for negotiation and reconciliation if a more moderate government comes to power. Ultimately, the situation remains fluid, but it’s clear that the geopolitics of the Middle East will be profoundly affected.
Sarah Johnson: Thank you, Dr. khalil, for providing such insightful analysis.We appreciate your expertise during these tumultuous times.
Dr. Amir khalil: Thank you, sarah. It’s crucial for us to keep a close watch on these developments as they unfold.