President-elect Donald Trump’s ambitious promise of the largest deportation effort in American history has fueled intense speculation about how his administration will translate words into action. Immigration experts suggest that achieving such a monumental task without significant assistance, particularly from local jails and prisons, would be nearly impossible.
While Trump’s rhetoric has raised fears of widespread roundups across American cities and states, experts posit a more strategic approach: persuading – or, if necessary, compelling – local authorities who run the nation’s jails and prisons to open their doors to federal immigration agents. This would vastly streamline the process of locating and deporting undocumented prisoners.
Thomas D. Homan, a senior immigration official during Trump’s first term and now designated “border czar” in charge of securing the nation’s borders, is a proponent of this strategy. Homan has publicly stated that picking up undocumented immigrants within the confines of county or state lockups is highly efficient, requiring only a single officer to detain multiple individuals each day.
In recent weeks, Homan has shone a spotlight on so-called sanctuary cities — municipalities that refuse to hand over certain immigrants detained by local police or allow ICE agents access to their jails and prisons. He has vowed that if these cities don’t cooperate, the Trump administration will double down on ICE manpower within those jurisdictions.
Trump himself has stated that ICE will prioritize the deportation of “criminals.”
Expanding deportation efforts beyond jails presents a host of logistical hurdles, however. Trump would need a massive influx of personnel, airplanes, and immigration agents. Finding, apprehending, and deporting an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants within a four-year term would be a colossal undertaking.
The conditions for a successful mass deportation are far from guaranteed, setting the stage for a protracted battle over a sweeping immigration crackdown that sits at the heart of Trump’s political identity and propelled his campaign to victory.
While Trump’s plan for mass deportations has ignited concerns about indiscriminate raids on homes and even whole neighborhoods, experts caution that ICE’s current methods are, at best, inefficient.
“Our resources are limited, which significantly restricts the number of officers we can deploy to locate individuals in communities – the most challenging aspect of this operation,” said Corey Price, a former high-ranking official with ICE.
Arresting undocumented immigrants within communities is a laborious process: tracking down their addresses, conducting surveillance to understand their daily routines and connections, and thoroughly assessing their legal deportability. Then comes the lengthy process of ICE officers staking out homes and attempting to detain those targeted.
Jails and prisons have long served as a primary source of immigration arrests and deportations in the United States. When immigrants are arrested and jailed, their fingerprints are automatically transmitted to ICE, revealing their location.
During two years of the Trump administration, ICE requested access to immigrants detained in jails and prisons over 342,000 times. However, federal authorities would rely on local cooperation to conduct raids within these facilities – a challenge they encountered during Trump’s first term.
Sanctuary jurisdictions, particularly in states like California where a significant number of immigrants reside, make it exceptionally difficult for ICE officers to swiftly apprehend individuals from local jails due to strict limitations on cooperation with federal immigration authorities. These policies aim to ensure that immigrant communities feel safe interacting with local law enforcement.
Some Democratic governors, governors-elect, and candidates for office have expressed a willingness to explore potential areas of collaboration with Trump on immigration enforcement, though they remain defiant towards his anticipated crackdown.
Despite these potential compromises, achieving Trump’s ambitious deportation numbers is likely unattainable without widespread cooperation.
Throughout ICE’s existence, its primary means of locating and arresting individuals has relied heavily on collaboration with local law enforcement.
Sanctuary jurisdictions make it exceedingly challenging for ICE officers to efficiently detain individuals from local jails. Instead, the agency must rely on publicly accessible information regarding an inmate’s potential release date and is often restricted from entering non-public areas within the jail to make arrests.
The Trump administration attempted to compel sanctuary states and cities back into compliance during its first term. It pursued legal action against California over its sanctuary law and sought to withhold federal funding from cities with policies obstructing cooperation with immigration officials.
Some former ICE officials believe the Biden administration failed to adequately pressure those cities and counties to cooperate with federal law enforcement.
“That’s the key difference between the Trump administration and the Biden administration: There was no effort by the Biden administration, and the Trump administration will make it a priority,” said John Fabbricatore, a former ICE official who supported Trump’s re-election bid and ran for Congress as a Republican.
Homan has suggested reviving the lawsuit against California and withholding federal funding from jurisdictions that remain uncooperative. He has also pledged to double the number of ICE officers deployed in cities that refuse to cooperate. However, these tactics yielded only moderate success in terms of arrests and deportations during Trump’s first presidency.
The Trump administration is sure to target such areas once again in an effort to force cooperation. They could also look to friendly states, such as Texas, to bolster local programs that deputize local law enforcement officials to assist ICE in identifying undocumented immigrants within jails and detaining them for deportation officers.
If Trump indeed shifts focus towards arrests within communities to meet his desired numbers, he will need to significantly increase the number of ICE officers deployed, expand detention facilities to unprecedented levels, and secure a significantly larger fleet of aircraft for deportations.
Deportations are further complicated by the requirement for global cooperation. Countries around the world must agree to accept their nationals who have been ordered deported; this process can be complex and time-consuming. Notably, countries like Venezuela have halted the acceptance of deportation flights, while countries like China and Cuba traditionally maintain strict limits on the number of their citizens they are willing to repatriate.
Another strategy likely to be employed is the resumption of “collateral arrests,” or apprehending individuals found in the same location as a designated ICE target. Immigrant rights advocates argue that this practice can contribute to racial profiling and should be abandoned. This tactic was commonplace during the Trump administration’s first term but was discontinued upon Biden’s inauguration.
Trump has indicated a willingness to leverage the military’s resources in his deportation efforts. Homan revealed to The New York Post that the military could be deployed to transport immigrants, freeing up ICE officers to focus on arrests and apprehensions.
Trump may also rely on the expanded use of expedited deportations historically utilized at the southern border.
The Trump administration received authorization in late 2020 to initiate swift deportations for individuals who had been in the United States for less than two years, expanding the scope of this policy. While powerful, this authority comes with its own bureaucratic and logistical challenges.
Ultimately, Trump’s ambitious deportation goals will most likely hinge on local cooperation.
“Cooperation from local law enforcement officials will be absolutely critical to the success of Trump’s mass deportation plans,” said Kathleen Bush-Joseph, an analyst at the Migration Policy Institute. “Without access to the criminal justice-to-deportation pipeline, DHS will find it incredibly challenging to approach the unusually high targets set by the Administration.”