Analysis from the U.S. diplomatic magazine The Diplomat… “Possibility of secret negotiations”
“Constitutional Court, democratic president when impeached… “Putting peace with North Korea first”
“Trump may demand more defense spending and cancel joint exercises.”
US media predicted that US President-elect Donald Trump is likely to engage in secret negotiations with North Korea and may even acknowledge North Korea’s status as a nuclear state in order to reach an agreement.
The Diplomat, an American diplomatic magazine, reported on the 16th (local time), “Trump, who learned lessons from unofficial diplomatic channels during his first term, can resume negotiations with North Korea through secret negotiations with unprecedented support from loyal associates.” did it
The media explained that while President-elect Trump exchanged aggressive language with North Korea during his first term in office, he secretly sent then-Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Mike Pompeo to North Korea to lay the foundation for a historic meeting.
“Trump knows that he needs to revive informal diplomatic channels for North Korea policy in his second term,” he said. “For that to begin, two key conditions will come into play: Trump’s strong will and domestic opposition to dialogue with North Korea.” It was predicted that
Among the two conditions, the media said, “Trump’s will to improve North Korea-US relations is clear.” Like other re-elected presidents, President-elect Trump will continue the legacy of his first term, and this is because President-elect Trump has repeatedly emphasized his close relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Internal opposition to resuming dialogue with North Korea is also expected, he said, noting that both National Security Advisor nominee Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have taken a hard-line stance against North Korea.
In addition, the media said, “Another important factor for an unofficial diplomatic channel is North Korea’s positive response,” and added, “This seems plausible because North Korea has not deviated from its long-standing goal of normalizing relations with the United States.”
In particular, as President-elect Trump is focusing on ending the war between Ukraine and Russia, uncertainty may arise in the cooperative relationship between North Korea and Russia, which provides an incentive for North Korea to pursue ‘détente’ with the United States.
Diplomat also assessed that the fact that President Yoon Seok-yeol, who has taken a hard-line stance against North Korea, is on the verge of impeachment could give momentum to North Korea-US diplomacy.
The media said, “If the Constitutional Court upholds the National Assembly’s decision to impeach President Yoon after the controversial brief declaration of martial law, Korea will have to hold a presidential election within 60 days, and the Democratic Party candidate is likely to be the winner.” “It is very likely that South Korea’s new president will prioritize peaceful negotiations with North Korea, similar to the policies of previous progressive presidents such as Kim Dae-jung, Roh Moo-hyun, and Moon Jae-in,” he predicted.
On the other hand, it was assessed that the improvement in North Korea-US relations led by President-elect Trump may deepen South Korea’s security concerns.
The media said, “If Trump prioritizes arms control (nuclear freeze) over North Korea’s complete denuclearization during the negotiation process, the continued stationing of U.S. troops in Korea could reignite the debate over defense cost sharing,” adding, “Trump is mediated through his diplomacy.” “They may use the prospect of improved inter-Korean relations as leverage to demand that South Korea pay more to maintain the ROK-US alliance.”
In addition, “Trump’s position on North Korea’s demand for the withdrawal of U.S. troops in Korea is unclear,” and “Considering that Trump has described past ROK-U.S. joint military exercises as ‘war games’ and ‘highly provocative,’ this exercise is intended to be advantageous for U.S.-North Korea negotiations.” He pointed out, “There is also a possibility of canceling it and making Korea vulnerable.”
In addition, “The worst-case scenario for South Korea is that Trump officially recognizes North Korea as a nuclear state in order to facilitate nuclear weapons negotiations,” he said. “Considering that President Trump is likely to reopen unofficial diplomatic channels with North Korea, this “The scenario is extreme, but it cannot be completely ruled out.”
[워싱턴=뉴시스]
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