The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its growth forecast for the Caucasus and Central Asia from 4.7% to 4.9% for 2024 and from 5.2% to 5.3% for 2025, Day.Az reports.
“The adjustment reflects robust growth in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which exceeded expectations in the September 2024 report. Azerbaijan’s economy grew by 4.7% in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by the development of non-resource sectors supported by public investment. During the same period Georgia’s GDP growth amounted to 9.8% due to high consumption supported by growth lending, wages and government infrastructure spending,” the Bank said in its latest forecast.
According to ADB experts, Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8.4% thanks to significant remittances and gold exports.
“In Uzbekistan, thanks to a sharp increase in capital investment, the economy expanded by 6.6% in the first 9 months of 2024. The growth forecast remains unchanged for Armenia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan,” the report notes.
The bank estimates GDP growth for Kazakhstan, the subregion’s largest economy, at 4.0% for the period January to September 2024.
“Among the major economic sectors, agriculture recovered, growing 11.4% on favorable weather conditions, after contracting 9.9% in the same period last year. Construction, transport, trade and manufacturing also contributed to overall growth. However, aggregate business indices Activity and business climate data published by the central bank fell in October 2024, partly due to a contraction in the services sector in the first 9 months of 2024. Oil production in Kazakhstan decreased slightly compared to the same period in 2023. On November 3, 2024, OPEC+ collectively announced an extension of the voluntary reduction in oil production until the end of December,” the report says.