As Indonesia transitions to a new political landscape under President Prabowo Subianto, significant shifts in foreign policy are anticipated, diverging from the pragmatic approach of his predecessor, Joko Widodo. Prabowo’s personalistic style may introduce unpredictability in international relations, particularly with key partners like Australia, which has historically benefited from Indonesia’s stable diplomatic stance. Analysts suggest that while Prabowo is unlikely to completely overhaul Jokowi’s established policies, his administration could prioritize nationalistic interests and assert a more autonomous foreign policy direction, reflecting his unique vision for Indonesia’s role on the global stage. This evolution in leadership could reshape regional dynamics and influence Indonesia’s strategic partnerships moving forward. for more insights, visit Lowy Institute.
Understanding the Shift in Indonesian Foreign Policy Under President Prabowo subianto: A Discussion
time.news editor (TNE): Today we have the pleasure of speaking with Dr. Amelia Rachman, a Southeast Asian politics expert, to delve into the anticipated changes in Indonesia’s foreign policy under newly elected President Prabowo Subianto. dr. Rachman,as Indonesia moves away from Joko Widodo’s pragmatic approach,what are the key changes we can expect?
Dr. Amelia Rachman (AR): thank you for having me. The transition to Prabowo’s leadership marks a significant turning point in Indonesia’s foreign relations. While his administration is unlikely to completely dismantle Jokowi’s policies, we can expect a stronger emphasis on nationalistic interests and a more autonomous foreign policy. This could lead to a less predictable diplomatic surroundings,especially with key partners like Australia,who have become accustomed to Indonesia’s historically stable diplomatic stance.
TNE: That unpredictability is concerning for many. What implications might Prabowo’s personalistic leadership style have on Indonesia’s relationships with its global partners?
AR: prabowo’s personalistic style may cultivate an atmosphere of unpredictability in international relations. Countries that depended on a predictable Indonesia might need to reconsider their strategies. However, we should also look at his swift diplomatic activities—since taking office, he has already engaged with multiple countries, including visits to China and the USA. This engagement signals a proactive approach, albeit one that may prioritize bilateral arrangements that align closely with his nationalist vision for Indonesia’s role on the global stage [2[2[2[2].
TNE: Speaking of those diplomatic engagements, how do you see Prabowo’s interactions, particularly with China, influencing the regional dynamics?
AR: His relationship with China is already under scrutiny. The controversial joint statement issued after his visit indicates a potential shift in how Indonesia aligns with global powers. This might enhance Indonesia’s leverage in negotiations but also risks alienating other traditional partners who may view this alignment as a pivot away from the collaborative frameworks established under Jokowi [3[3[3[3].
TNE: So,could this be a double-edged sword for indonesia when it comes to regional partnerships?
AR: Exactly. While pursuing an assertive foreign policy allows Indonesia to play a more prominent role globally, it also introduces the risk of alienation. Countries like Australia, which historically benefited from Indonesia’s stable foreign policy, might now find themselves adjusting to a new and potentially more challenging diplomatic landscape. This could compel them to reassess their regional strategies and partnerships [1[1[1[1].
TNE: As you mentioned, prabowo’s administration is expected to maintain continuity with Jokowi’s policies to some extent. What areas of foreign policy might remain unchanged?
AR: Certain foundational aspects of Indonesian foreign policy, such as the commitment to ASEAN unity and regional stability, are likely to persist. Prabowo’s administration may continue to focus on pragmatic partnerships that deliver mutual benefits. Though, the execution and tone of these policies can differ considerably based on his personal vision [2[2[2[2].
TNE: That’s an insightful outlook. What practical advice can you offer to businesses and governments engaging with Indonesia during this transition?
AR: It’s crucial for stakeholders to remain flexible and adaptable. They should invest in understanding political dynamics and the shifts in Prabowo’s foreign policy priorities. Establishing strong local partnerships can also provide critical insights and help navigate the evolving landscape more effectively. Engaging in dialog with the Indonesian government will be key to anticipating changes and aligning interests accordingly.
TNE: Thank you for your insights,Dr. Rachman. As we observe these changes, it will be engaging to see how Indonesia carves out its new identity on the global stage under Prabowo Subianto.