“When changing U.S. policy, such as the issue of U.S. troops stationed in Korea,
It will not be easy to respond with an agency system.
“The sustainability of hard-line policies against North Korea is also questionable.”
Government: “We will communicate with Trump before taking office”
On the 23rd, the Congressional Research Service (CRS), a think tank under the U.S. Congress, published a report predicting that Korea, facing martial law and impeachment ahead of the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in January next year, may be at a disadvantage. local time) was released.
This report contains the observation that while the second Trump administration is likely to exert strong pressure regarding tariffs, the size of US troops stationed in Korea, and an increase in defense cost sharing, Korea, which lacks a control tower following the declaration of illegal martial law, may be unilaterally influenced. He also raised doubts about whether the current government’s major foreign policies, such as improving relations with Japan and expanding Korea-U.S.-Japan relations, can be maintained.
Established in 1914, CRS is a think tank of the U.S. Legislative Assembly and plays a role in providing important information in the policy-making process of Congress. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House National Security Advisor nominee Michael Waltz, who were selected as the top foreign affairs and security officials in the second Trump administration, are also members of the Senate and House of Representatives, respectively.
Amid growing concerns about a ‘leadership vacuum’ in the Korean government, on the same day, a high-ranking government official announced his intention to “communicate (with President-elect Trump) before the US President’s inauguration ceremony.” The position is that they will seek contact not only at the foreign minister level but also between President-elect Trump and Acting President Han Deok-soo if possible. However, he said that so far, “nothing specific has been decided” regarding communication between Korea and the United States.
● “It is questionable whether the current government’s core foreign policy will continue.”
From the first sentence of the report, CRS pointed out, “In December 2024, South Korea fell into a political crisis that could have a significant impact on U.S. interests, including U.S. policies toward North Korea, China, Japan, and Russia.” After discussing everything from President Yoon Seok-yeol’s declaration of martial law to the passing of the impeachment bill, he said, “One of the questions facing U.S. policymakers and Congress is whether President Yoon did not notify the commander of U.S. Forces Korea (in advance) while enforcing martial law about the state of alliance coordination. “Is it a situation worth worrying about?” The order is to assess the geopolitical impact that Korea’s martial law and impeachment situation will have on the Asia-Pacific region as well as the ROK-US alliance itself.
In particular, CRS said, “If the next U.S. administration pursues changes that will affect the ROK-U.S. relationship, such as tariffs, the size of the U.S. Forces Korea, policies in the semiconductor and other technology fields, and the revision or withdrawal of the ROK-U.S. defense cost-sharing agreement, Seoul (Korean government) under the acting presidential authority system “It could be at a disadvantage in asserting its own position,” he predicted. This means that even if President-elect Trump is aggressive in various fields such as diplomacy and security and the economy, it will be difficult for Korea to respond effectively under the acting presidential system with limited authority and only temporary status. CRS also raised questions about the sustainability of major foreign policies pursued by the current government due to the aftermath of martial law and impeachment. First, regarding the ‘deterrence-centered’ hard-line policy against North Korea that President Yoon has been emphasizing, he pointed out, “South Korea’s progressive camp places more emphasis on a policy of engagement with North Korea.” He also added that President Yoon sought to integrate Korea into the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific alliance network, but the progressive camp criticized this.
In particular, regarding China policy, President Yoon was willing to publicly criticize China, but Lee Jae-myeong, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, said he questioned this approach. Improving relations with Japan and expanding Korea-U.S.-Japan relations are “the core of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration’s foreign policy,” but Representative Lee explained that he described this approach as “shameful.” In fact, the first impeachment bill also included grounds for impeachment for being hostile toward North Korea, China, and Russia and insisting on a Japan-centered foreign policy.
● Korea and the United States agree to fully resume diplomatic and security schedules
Amid ongoing concerns about a diplomatic vacuum ahead of the inauguration of the second Trump administration, a high-ranking Korean government official said at a meeting held at the US embassy in Washington on the 23rd, “We will communicate (with President-elect Trump) before the US President’s inauguration ceremony,” and “As soon as possible.” “We will ensure that face-to-face contact can take place at the level of the foreign minister and others,” he said.
This official also explained, “If President-elect Trump wishes, an acting authority can not only make phone calls but also have face-to-face meetings.” This is interpreted to mean that the government will continue efforts to communicate with President-elect Trump due to concerns about the incoming Trump administration’s ‘passing over Korea’. However, this official said, “As of now, nothing has been decided (regarding high-level face-to-face meetings, etc.).”
First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Hong-kyun, who is visiting the United States, held a meeting with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on this day and decided to fully resume major diplomatic and security schedules between the two countries that had been suspended after martial law. However, it is known that smooth communication is still not possible with President-elect Trump, so it is pointed out that the resumption of diplomatic schedules with the Joe Biden administration will inevitably be halved.
Washington = Correspondent Shin Jin-woo [email protected]
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