As Reigo Kebja, member of the board of the Estonian power transmission network operator “Elering”, emphasizes, there are few repair ships in the world and they are reserved for cable laying work two or three years in advance.
“It is very difficult to predict at the moment [kad “EstLink 2″ tiks remontēts]because there are two important uncertainties in the repair of the underwater cable,” Kebja told the Estonian public broadcaster ERR on Friday.
The first uncertainty is that it is not yet known exactly what the actual technical condition of the cable is at the point of damage.
“We know where the damage is, but to be sure of the actual condition of the cable, we need to carry out on-site inspections. And based on that, it will be possible to determine the extent of the necessary repairs,” he explained.
The availability of a repair ship was indicated by a member of the board of “Elering” as another uncertainty.
“There are very few such ships in the world. Usually they are not in port waiting for an accident, but booked two to three years ahead for cable laying work,” he said.
Fingrid, the Finnish operator, estimates that the repairs will take about seven months. Kebja pointed out that such a forecast is based solely on previous experience.
“But first, of course, the extent of the repair work must be determined. It will be determined on the spot how much of the cable section is damaged and needs to be replaced. After that, a plan must be developed for how the repair work will look underwater at a depth of 80 meters. Weather conditions are also an important factor,” Kebja said. .
He said that the potential impact of the seven-month repair of EstLink 2 on the price of electricity depends on various circumstances.
“For example, if there is more renewable energy production in the Baltic region, it will help keep electricity prices low. The same can be said for spring, when the snow melts and a significant amount of hydropower comes from Latvia. It will also help keep electricity prices more stable,” he explained.
In the event that there are not enough renewable energy resources and hydropower, the price of electricity will increase, because then the price will be determined by gas power plants in the Baltic States and oil shale power plants in Estonia.
“But in order to really feel what this impact on the price could be, we have a real parallel with last year, when “EstLink 2″ also did not work for a long time. During this period, the impact of the average electricity price on the final price of electricity for private consumers was about 10%,” said Kebya.
The member of the board of “Elering” once again confirmed that there are no problems with the reliability of electricity supply in Estonia.
It has already been announced that an investigation has been launched in connection with the suspicion that the Russian “shadow fleet” tanker “Eagle S”, which has the flag of the Cook Islands, damaged electricity and communication cables with an anchor.
On Wednesday, the Estonian-Finnish electric cable “EstLink 2” stopped working, but the communication companies informed the Estonian authorities about the damage to three Estonian-Finnish communication cables.
The European Commission has promised to initiate new sanctions against the “shadow fleet” of Russian tankers in connection with the damage to underwater cables.
The damage to the “EstLink 2” underwater cable was detected last time on January 26. “Elering” and “Fingrid” started work to determine the location of the damage, and on January 28, the possible location of the damage was found on the Estonian side. After repairs, the cable resumed work in September.
The responsible authorities announced that the damage to the cable was not related to external influences.
The total length of “EstLink 2”, discovered ten years ago, is 170 km, of which 145 km are underwater cables. “EstLink 1” started operating in 2006, but in 2035, Estonia and Finland plan to complete the “EstLink 3” cable.
Recently, damage to underwater infrastructure has been detected in the Baltic Sea several times.
In addition to “EstLink 2”, three underwater communication cables between Estonia and Finland were also damaged on Wednesday.
On November 17 and 18, two underwater communication cables were broken in the Baltic Sea in Swedish territorial waters, one of which connects Finland and Germany, and the other – Sweden and Lithuania. These cables have already been repaired. Chinese cargo ship “Yi Peng 3” possibly related to cable damage.
Last year, the “Balticconnector” gas pipeline connecting Estonia and Finland was damaged in the Baltic Sea. Later in the investigation, it was found out that the damage was caused by the Hong Kong-registered container ship “NewNew Polar Bear”, whose anchor was pulled over the pipeline at the bottom of the Baltic Sea.
In October 2023, in addition to the “Balticconnector”, the electricity cable between Finland and Estonia was also broken in the Baltic Sea. Around the same time, Sweden reported some damage to a cable connecting it to Estonia.
In 2022, the Russian-German gas pipeline “Nord Stream” was blown up in the Baltic Sea.