BARREL PRICE. The price of a barrel of Brent is soaring again at the start of the week. 118 dollars on Tuesday, very bad news for French motorists. Is a global oil supply shock possible? What impact on your refueling? We tell you everything.
[Mis à jour le 22 mars 2022 à 15h38] The lull did not last, the surge in the price of a barrel of oil is already making a comeback. This Tuesday, March 22, the barrel of Brent is measured at 118 dollars, the highest for nearly two weeks. And this new significant increase had the gift of seriously worrying theInternational Energy Agency (AIE) who is not afraid of words and is ready to consider a “global oil supply shock“. The latter even proposed a dozen short-term solutions with immediate effect to try to stop the machine, such as alternating traffic in large cities or the increase in teleworking. Remember that Russia is the world’s largest exporter. oil, with 8 million barrels of crude oil per day shipped around the world. In France, the blocking movements had started on Monday, they should not stop anytime soon. When the price of a liter of diesel had fallen below 2 euros, on average in the territory, a further increase cannot be ruled out in the coming days and weeks.
Faced with the unprecedented increase in the barrel of oil last week, close to 140 euros per barrel, AIE member countries should release no less than 60 million barrels of oil of their reserves. One objective, to stabilize a market in panic. So, should we expect a further rise in fuel prices in France, when the prices charged have already reached record highs? As fuel prices are strongly indexed to the price of a barrel of oil, a further rise in pump prices is to be expected despite the new aid measure put in place by the government. French consumers could well be the first victims of a potential embargo. Difficult for Europe to turn around quickly, alternatives are possible, but they will take time before being put in place. In France, the price of a liter of diesel has fallen below 2 euros, on average, throughout the territory.
Since the start of the week, we have seen a small respite with relative stagnation in prices. They dropped back below 100 dollars at the start of the week before rising again significantly. Prime Minister Jean Castex announced two aids on fuel, Wednesday March 16, during the press conference presenting the resilience plan. First, a discount of 15 cents on fuel for all French people from April 1 and for 4 months. Then, more help from 35 centimes per liter of fishing fuel for fishermen hard hit by the price explosion. Aid valid from April 17 to July 31 to allow them to go back to sea in decent conditions.
- 7 mars 2022 : 139 dollars the barrel
- 8 mars 2022 : 128 dollars the barrel
- 10 mars 2022 : 110 dollars the barrel
- 15 mars 2022 : 98 dollars the barrel
- 16 mars 2022 : 100 dollars the barrel
- 17 mars 2022 : 106 dollars the barrel
- 18 mars 2022 : 109 dollars the barrel
- 21 mars 2022 : 111 dollars the barrel
- 22 mars 2022 : 118 dollars the barrel
The war in Ukraine casts doubt on the supply and price of energy. Aside from gas, one question remains central and arouses curiosity, what is the price per barrel of oil in this mess? Rising almost constantly since December 2021, the price of a barrel is now stable around 100 dollars, measured exactly at 118 dollars this Tuesday, March 22.
When you fill up with gas, the taxes represent 60% full. And these taxes, they, in spite of the war in Ukraine, fluctuate rather little. In particular the domestic consumption tax on energy products (TICPE), which simply represents the fourth revenue of the State, behind VAT, income tax and corporate tax. the fuel price leaving the refinery, it corresponds to 1/3 full of gasoline. Notably influenced by the price of a barrel of oil on international markets. Gas station attendants will have no choice but to pass on this increase to the price per litre.
Keep in mind that there is a lag time between the increase in the purchase price of a barrel of oil and the real impact on prices at the pump. This time varies 8 to 10 days about. In an attempt to curb this phenomenon, several aids have been put in place and distributed by the Government. In particular the inflation bonus granted to 38 million low-income households, as well as the revaluation of the mileage scale for 2.5 million tax households. The threat of a embargo European on Russian gas could cause the price of a barrel of oil to explode at 300 dollarsor even more.
According to INSEE, the Russia is the 3rd world producer of oil with 10 million barrels per day, of which 2 million transit to Europe. The Franceshe matters 9% of its crude oil since Russia. And the countries which could substitute the major role of Russia in the export of oil are not legion. Nigeria, Angola and Libya, for example, are not even meeting their own production targets. the Nigeria (9.6% of oil imports in France), theAlgeria (10.3%), and theSaudi Arabia (11.8%) remain crucial trading partners for France to whom the government could turn more to supply the country.
“We have significant strategic oil stocks which cover almost three months of consumption and allow us to deal with supply disruptions. The French are not at risk of running out of fuel or gas for heating in the coming months” declared the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Barbara Pompili on February 23. The European Union could even decide to release part of its strategic oil stocks to counter the rise in fuel prices in the face of this major market disruption. A decision taken only three times in history, for example after Hurricane Katrina in the United States.