Professor Robert Kelly and Professor Minhyung Kim jointly contributed… “The best way to deter North Korean threats”
“The biggest obstacle to nuclear armament is the United States… “If we accept it, we can focus on China.”
“Korea rejects martial law, proves check system… “We also strongly control nuclear weapons.”
The argument that South Korea’s independent nuclear armament is the best way to suppress the threat from North Korea and will also help realize America’s interests is expected to have a repercussion after being published in an American diplomatic media.
On the 30th (local time), Professor Robert Kelly of Pusan National University and Professor Minhyung Kim of Kyung Hee University jointly contributed ‘Why South Korea Should Go Nuclear’ in the US diplomatic magazine ‘Foreign Affairs’.
In an article subtitled ‘Nuclear bombs are the best way to deter North Korean threats,’ Professor Kelly and Professor Kim said that the security pledges that the United States has provided for decades are becoming increasingly vulnerable today, and pointed out two problems in particular.
The first concern was that doubts about America’s extended deterrence are growing as North Korea developed an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that can directly attack the United States, and the second problem was the return of President-elect Donald Trump, who does not value alliances, to the White House. .
They said, “In the Korean Peninsula conflict, it is almost certain that North Korea will threaten nuclear attacks on the United States to deter the United States from participating in the war,” and “They will threaten American bases in the Asia-Pacific region, such as Guam and Hawaii, first, followed by the U.S. mainland.” I predicted this.
They argue that North Korea’s direct threat to the United States will inevitably weaken its security commitment to South Korea. This means that America’s intervention in the war on the Korean Peninsula not only means the defeat of North Korea, but also the end of the North Korean regime. Therefore, North Korea is more likely to actually press the nuclear button against the United States than any other nuclear weapons state.
Professors Kelly and Kim said that this situation “is likely to make the United States hesitant to intervene,” and cited the fact that U.S. support for Ukraine was limited due to Russia’s nuclear threat as an example.
He continued, “If Russia’s threat was effective against alliance-friendly President Joe Biden, North Korea’s threat is very likely to deter the nationalistic and transactional Trump,” adding, “Then, South Korea will be in a situation where it has to defend itself.” evaluated.
Professor Kelly and Professor Kim believe that due to this security environment, there is greater consensus on nuclear armament in Korea than ever before, but the stubborn opposition from the United States prevents it from developing into a policy discussion.
They analyzed, “Today, the biggest obstacle to Korea’s nuclear armament is not domestically but a foreign country, the United States.” They analyzed, “The main reason that Korea still participates in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is probably because of pressure from the United States.” He also said, “The main reason for the lack of policy change (due to nuclear armament) may be the fear that sanctions against Korea may be imposed in relations with the United States and that the ROK-U.S. alliance may be weakened.”
At the same time, he said, “Americans who oppose South Korea’s nuclear armament exaggerate the shortcomings of this policy (nuclear armament), underestimate its benefits, and American liberal values require that democratic partners accept their national security choices even if they do not like them.” “Ignoring it,” he criticized.
“If South Korea takes these steps, it will not trigger the collapse of the NPT system as critics fear,” he said. “North Korea’s nuclear capabilities undermine U.S. deterrence, but South Korea’s nuclear armament helps fill the gap.” “It can be done,” he claimed.
In addition, “Once South Korea is better able to handle the North Korean issue on its own, the United States can focus on competing with China, which is its top priority in East Asia,” he said. “On balance, South Korea’s decision to denuclearize is not only good for Korea. “It could be good for America, too.”
Regarding the criticism from some that South Korea’s nuclear armament will lead to the collapse of the NPT system, he said, “It is purely speculation.” “No,” he countered.
At least in relation to the claim that a nuclear-armed domino could occur within East Asia, the view was, “It is possible, but unlikely.” The fact that only nine countries have nuclear weapons is disproving the domino argument, and the situations of Japan and Taiwan, which are possible, are different from Korea.
In addition, Dr. Kelly and Professor Kim said about concerns about inappropriate use of nuclear weapons developed by Korea, “It is not persuasive in Korea.” “The Korean National Assembly’s unanimous rejection of the president’s surprise declaration of martial law in December and the public’s immediate backlash showed that Korea’s democracy’s system of checks and balances is working well,” he said.
“South Korea’s command and control of nuclear weapons will be strong, and their military will be under civilian (elected power) control. “Korea has properly managed its civil nuclear power industry for decades, so concerns about its ability to safely handle nuclear materials can be put to rest,” he added.
[워싱턴=뉴시스]