The price of cocoa has surged in recent weeks, with futures on the New York market reaching $12,014.67 per ton on December 18,2024,driven by significant production declines in key African nations,particularly Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. According to the International Cocoa Institution (ICCO), these countries, which account for nearly 70% of global cocoa production, faced severe challenges in 2024, including droughts and diseases affecting cocoa plants. Experts predict a production deficit of 374,000 tons for the upcoming season, with Ghana anticipating a 5% reduction in output. This tightening supply is expected to keep cocoa prices elevated as the market adjusts to ongoing agricultural difficulties.The global cocoa market is facing significant challenges as key producers like Ghana and Ivory Coast report declining harvests in 2024,leading to soaring prices. Experts predict that cocoa prices could reach as high as $15,000 per ton by mid-2025 due to ongoing supply shortages.In Peru, local producers are benefiting from this price surge, with cocoa selling for nearly S/40 per kilogram domestically and around $11.13 internationally, a stark increase from previous prices of S/8. This trend may encourage increased cocoa production in the country, as the market remains volatile and closely monitors agricultural developments in Africa.Peru’s chocolate export industry is experiencing remarkable growth, with shipments surpassing $55 million from January to October 2024.The United States remains the largest market for Peruvian chocolate, while Canada has emerged as a significant player, now accounting for 20% of total exports. This surge includes a 32% increase in organic chocolate exports, reflecting a growing global demand for high-quality, lasting products. As the country continues to capitalize on its rich cacao heritage, industry experts predict that total exports could reach an impressive $1.2 billion by the end of 2024, driven by favorable market conditions and rising prices[1[1[1[1][2[2[2[2][3[3[3[3].
Cocoa Market Insights: A Discussion with expert Dr. Emily Cortés
Time.news Editor: Welcome, Dr. Cortés. The cocoa market has recently been in the spotlight due to surging prices, particularly with futures reaching over $12,000 per ton. Can you explain what’s driving these price increases?
Dr. Emily Cortés: Thank you for having me. The surge in cocoa prices is primarily attributed to meaningful production declines in Côte d’Ivoire adn Ghana,two giants of the cocoa industry,which together account for nearly 70% of global supply. In 2024, these countries have faced severe challenges—droughts, pests, and diseases have severely hindered thier cocoa production. The International Cocoa Association has estimated a production deficit of 374,000 tons this season, contributing to the tightening supply and subsequent price increases.
Time.news Editor: That’s quite concerning. With prices potentially hitting $15,000 per ton by mid-2025, how do you think this will impact the global cocoa market?
Dr. Emily Cortés: The implications of such high prices are significant. For consumers, we can expect higher prices for chocolate and cocoa products globally, which could impact consumption patterns. For producers, particularly in regions like Peru, this can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, they may benefit from higher selling prices; on the other, increasing competition can drive them to enhance production while managing quality. Peru is already seeing cocoa prices rise to nearly S/40 per kilogram domestically and $11.13 internationally, up from previous prices of S/8.
Time.news Editor: Speaking of Peru, how is the Peruvian chocolate export industry responding to this surge in cocoa prices?
Dr. Emily cortés: The Peruvian chocolate export industry is flourishing amid these developments. Exports have surpassed $55 million from january to October 2024, with the U.S. being the largest market and Canada rapidly emerging, now accounting for 20% of total exports. Notably, there’s been a 32% increase in the export of organic chocolate, highlighting a growing global demand for high-quality, sustainable products. With favorable market conditions, total exports could reach an remarkable $1.2 billion by the end of 2024.
Time.news Editor: What practical advice would you give to both producers and consumers considering these market dynamics?
Dr. Emily Cortés: for producers, investing in sustainable farming practices and diversifying crops can help mitigate risks associated with climate change and market volatility. Understanding the global market dynamics is essential for making informed financial decisions.For consumers, being aware of price fluctuations and leaning towards brands that support fair trade practices can encourage sustainability in the cocoa industry. Supporting local producers can also help boost economies affected by supply shortages.
Time.news Editor: thank you, Dr. Cortés, for these valuable insights into the cocoa market. It’s a dynamic time for both producers and consumers, and understanding these changes is crucial for navigating the future of cocoa.
Dr. Emily Cortés: It was my pleasure. As the cocoa market evolves, staying informed will be key for everyone involved in the supply chain. Thank you for having me!