After more than two years of presidential vacuum, the 13th parliamentary session will be held today, which may put an end to the political stalemate in Lebanon, and the chances of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun rising to win the presidential election after his candidacy was announced by a number of blocs and representatives, the number of which has exceeded fifty representatives so far.
The session is a real test of the political system’s ability to confront challenges and restore internal and external confidence, amid stifling economic and social crises.
In light of the Shiite duo’s withdrawal from supporting Suleiman Franjieh, Army Commander General Joseph Aoun emerged as a consensus candidate, with growing consensus around him, and he also enjoys wide respect inside and outside the military establishment.
Historically, presidential elections in Lebanon, since its independence in 1943, are considered an exceptional event in most cases. Out of 13 elections, only two regular elections were held without external interference or internal crises.
The transformations of the Taif Agreement also imposed that the election of the president be governed by regional and international balances. Regional variables play a decisive role in the course of the presidential elections. The transformations in Syria, the impact of the recent Israeli war, and the positions of influential countries such as France, the United States, and Iran are all factors pressing towards a political settlement that leads to the election of a new president.
Analysts believe that the international consensus on supporting General Joseph Aoun reflects a desire for Lebanon’s stability as part of the new regional balances. Therefore, the Lebanese are awaiting the January 9 session with hopes mixed with caution, especially since Lebanon stands today before a historic opportunity, but success depends on the ability of the political forces to abandon… Its narrow interests and work to save the country from its existential crisis.
Before the start of the session to elect the President of the Republic in Lebanon today, communications and consultations are intensifying between the blocs and representatives to resolve their position and choose their candidate.
French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian will attend the election session for the President of the Republic. The information suggested that Le Drian, during his tour, would carry one name for the Presidency of the Republic, supported by the Five-Year Committee, which is the name of the Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun.
For its part, the Development and Liberation Bloc in the Lebanese Parliament affirmed its “principled position, which is agreement on the presidency of the republic.” A video clip circulated documenting that one of the printing houses in Lebanon printed thousands of photos of the army commander and wrote on them His Excellency the President of the Republic.
The Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, had confirmed that the session to elect the President of the Republic, which will be held tomorrow, Thursday, at 11 a.m. local time, is “standing, open, and in successive sessions,” as he indicated in an interview with “An-Nahar” newspaper, that “the 128 representatives must bear Their responsibilities and electing the president.”
He added: “There is a determination to elect the president in the Thursday session or in the following days,” stressing that the election sessions will not stop except during Friday prayers or Sunday mass.
Earlier, the official in charge of the Liaison and Coordination Unit of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Wafiq Safa, announced that there is no “veto” for the party over the nomination of the Army Commander for the presidency of the republic, and that the only party’s “veto” includes Samir Geagea.
It is worth noting that the term of former President Michel Aoun ended on October 31, 2022, and due to the lack of a quorum in the House of Representatives sessions to choose the president, the elections were constantly postponed, and the last session was held in June 2023.
The process of electing a president in Lebanon requires a two-thirds majority of the votes of the 128 parliamentarians in the first round, while it is sufficient to obtain an absolute majority (more than 50%) in the following rounds.
The following are the most prominent names nominated for the presidency in Lebanon, according to what Al-Nahar newspaper reported:
Ibrahim Kanaan: Representative Al-Matni assumed the secretariat of the “Change and Reform Bloc” and “Strong Lebanon,” and remained one of the most prominent Aounist figures. He had the most prominent role, along with his “forces” partner Melhem Riachi, in drafting the “Maarab Agreement,” which paved the way for General Michel Aoun to reach Baabda Palace in 2016.
Elias Al-Bisari: The name of Major General Elias Al-Bisari emerged after he assumed the duties of the General Directorate of Public Security, succeeding Major General Abbas Ibrahim.
His name was put forward as a presidential candidate from among the moderate names not affiliated with a party, and it was also circulated in a national list that was discussed with a number of Lebanese parties. His name is still being seriously discussed, and no party has announced its direct rejection of it, nor has any party adopted it in return.
Joseph Aoun: Army Commander General Joseph Aoun is considered one of the most prominent names nominated for the Presidency of the Republic.
He assumed responsibility for the military institution in 2017. He spent his life in operational units carrying out field missions, with experience and competence.
A few months after assuming leadership, in August 2017, Aoun launched the “Battle of the Dawn of the Outskirts” against terrorist organizations in the barren lands of Arsal and Al-Qaa, and achieved the most prominent victory at the beginning of his reign as leader.
Aoun maintained his relations with various parties and was able to distance the army from the “political boats,” and today he is putting forward a serious candidate who enjoys the support of effective parliamentary and political blocs.
Jihad Azour: Coming from the world of finance and business, he holds a doctorate in international finance and a graduate degree in international economics and financial sciences, from the Institute of Political Studies in Paris, and has research related to emerging economies and their integration into the global economy at Harvard University.
Ziad Baroud: Ziad Baroud entered political life by assuming the Ministry of Interior in 2008 in the government of Fouad Siniora, a middle name between President Michel Suleiman and the head of the “Free Patriotic Movement” at the time, General Michel Aoun, and he continued his position in the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri until 2011.
Baroud maintained his moderation and his relations with various parties and moved towards legal and academic work. He had a major contribution to producing an electoral law based on proportionality for the first time in Lebanon, despite the distortion it suffered due to the settlements.
Samir Assaf: Lebanese banker Samir Assaf entered the presidential race from the plane of French President Emmanuel Macron, who took him with him to Beirut after his visit to Lebanon following the Beirut port explosion in 2020, and since then his name began to be mentioned as being the French president’s favorite person to assume the presidency of the Lebanese Republic.
Assaf has a “big fan” of international relations, and he refused to assume the position of governor of the Bank of Lebanon or the Ministry of Finance in previous years, considering that he could serve his country without assuming official responsibility.
With the exception of French support, Assaf’s name does not appear to be in serious circulation among the majority of parliamentary blocs.
Farid Elias Al-Khazen: MP and former ambassador to the Vatican. He won the parliamentary seat for Keserwan on the Free Patriotic Movement list, and after the end of his term he chose to be an ambassador abroad. Before that, he served as head of the Political Science Department at the American University of Beirut. He has several books in the field of political thought.
Nima Ephrem: A businessman, a descendant of the Ephrem family, the son of the late minister and representative George Ephrem, and one of the few who submitted their candidacy for the presidency of the republic according to a clear and announced program.
He entered the parliamentary session for the first time in 2018, achieving the highest percentage of votes in Keserwan and allied with the “Free Patriotic Movement.”
He sat for about a year at the “Strong Lebanon” table, headed by Representative Gebran Bassil, before he announced his withdrawal from the bloc in 2019 and took an opposition path to President Michel Aoun during his presidential term.
Ephrem returned to Parliament in 2022 through a list he headed in alliance with the Phalange and activists in the civil movement, and he has been moving independently since then.
Politically, it is considered close to the sovereign group in Lebanon, but it maintains a centrist line and seeks to create a supportive bloc of centrist and Sunni representatives, starting from them towards the presidency. There is no clear reservation about any bloc or bloc regarding his candidacy, and he has the ability to communicate with everyone.
Last updated: January 9, 2025 – 09:52
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