INTERVIEW – The forecaster and chief economist at Market Securities assesses the impact of the war in Ukraine on the global economy.
LE FIGARO. – What impact should be expected from the war in Ukraine on the world economy?
Christophe BARRAUD. – At the start of 2022, the world economy is facing a series of crises. Health crisis, with the Omicron wave which, after Europe and the United States, is sweeping over Asia, and over China and Hong Kong in particular. Inflationary crisis, which is growing in the United States and will now begin to affect household consumption. Russian-Ukrainian crisis, finally. War, sanctions and counter-sanctions aggravate disruptions in supply chains and tensions in energy and food. These three crises are mutually reinforcing and will cause a major shock to global growth. The OECD estimates it at around one point of GDP. I’m a little more pessimistic. Global growth of 5.9% in 2021 (IMF) will be close to 3% in 2022 at best.
How much is China slowing down?
Slowdown…
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