We had two pessimistic and optimistic weeks together: peace conferences that culminated in the Negev summit, but at the same time three severe terrorist attacks. Those who lived in the 1990s could not help but recall the Oslo process. Are we going back to those days?
The arrival of four Arab foreign ministers is certainly a significant event for the State of Israel, which is not accustomed to hosting such peaks. Following the invitation of Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, an impressive list of foreign ministers from the moderate Sunni axis arrived in Israel: Sameh Shukri from Egypt, Abdullah Ben-Zayed from the Emirates, Nasser Burita from Morocco and Abd a-Latif a-Ziani from Bahrain. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was also present.
The arrival of 4 Arab foreign ministers, an impressive list from the countries of the moderate Sunni axis, following the invitation of Foreign Minister Lapid, is certainly a significant event for Israel, which is not accustomed to hosting such peaks
The meeting arouses interest in the Israeli media, in the hope that a military coalition against the Iranian threat is being formed.
Modest cover – fallout
Surprisingly, the major media networks in the Arab world almost ignored the summit, except for a live broadcast at the end with a brief description and little commentary. In the Saudi media this week, the local camel competition received more headlines than the summit in the Negev, And the Egyptian press completely ignored it.
The Emirates news agency contented itself with a brief and concise description of the summit as a reception in which the continuation of the peace process and cooperation between the countries as a continuation of the Abrahamic agreements were discussed.
This proves that the important information about the summit we do not know. Arab countries maintain a complete fallout. Even in Israel, the media does not know the details of the agreements, which apparently have significant security aspects. The information we have is about economic and cultural cooperation. At the strategic level we only hear general headlines about cooperation against Iran and terrorism.
What are the interests of the conference participants? The Emirates and Bahrain hope to receive from Israel with US approval defense systems against the missile threat from the Houthis in Yemen at present and from Iran in the future.
We do not know the important information about the summit. Arab countries maintain complete decline. In Israel, too, the media does not know the details of the agreements, which apparently contain significant security aspects
The interest of Egypt and Morocco in the meeting is to receive financial assistance from the Gulf states and the United States in order to overcome the economic distress that has recently intensified with the crisis in Ukraine.
The American interest is to persuade the Gulf states to increase oil production in order to lower prices and thereby compensate for the global energy crisis created by the sanctions on Russia.
The common interest of Israel and the United States is to strengthen the normalization process in the hope that more Arab countries will join it.
Opponents of the agreement
Most of the coverage of the “Negev Summit” was actually provided by its opponents, mainly Palestinian commentators who see the conference as stabbing the Palestinian issue. Palestinian commentators have expressed concern about the timing of the conference at such a sensitive time, so close to Earth Day and before Ramadan.
The “Traitors” summit, as it was called, was also covered by the pro-Iranian Arab press. Wissam Abu Shamala, a commentator on the Lebanese Al-Mayadin channel, explained that the current summit is the direct abode of recent meetings, including Prime Minister Bennett’s visit to King Abdullah II of Jordan, a meeting of Moroccan and Israeli chiefs of staff and Bennett’s meeting with Egyptian President Abed Al-Fatah al-Sisi and the heir apparent of Abu Dhabi Muhammad bin Zayed a few days ago in Sharm el-Sheikh.
Most of the coverage of the “Negev Summit” is actually given by its opponents, especially Palestinian commentators who see it as a betrayal of the Palestinian issue. Palestinian commentators have wondered about its timing, in such a sensitive period, close to Earth Day and Ramadan
Wissam explains that what all the countries present at the meeting have in common is the fear of American abandonment of the region, of US policy of passivity, from reducing its forces in Iraq and Syria, to leaving Afghanistan to trying to sign a nuclear deal with Iran perceived as surrender in the Gulf states.
According to him, the feeling of Israel and the countries participating in the summit is that they must take care of themselves and that the United States does not intervene in wars and conflicts as in the past. American passivity is also now expressed in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Wissam believes that the representatives of the countries came to the Negev with the aim of exerting joint pressure on the United States to return the Houthis to the list of terrorist organizations and to cancel the nuclear agreement at the last minute before it is signed.
Without Jordan and Saudi Arabia
It is important to note which of the moderate Arab axis is absent from the summit. Mostly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Jordan avoided the meeting, apparently so as not to get involved with the Palestinians. It should be remembered that in Jordan there is a Palestinian majority and the king is not interested in heating up the internal arena and bringing about riots in the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia’s absence is the main problem in the idea of formulating a strategic front with Iran. At the overt level, Saudi Arabia stubbornly refrains from joining the normalization process with Israel. These are traditional religious barriers of the kingdom, which it is doubtful you will be able to overcome during the tenure of King Salman (86 years old).
From the moderate Arab axis, Jordan and Saudi Arabia were absent from the summit. Jordan apparently evaded not to get involved with the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia refrains from openly joining normalization with Israel due to traditional religious barriers
Saudi Arabia still adheres to the unrealistic 2002 peace offer that offers Israel full peace but in exchange for the withdrawal to the 1967 lines including East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights and the return of millions of Palestinian refugees to Israel.
therefore, Saudi Arabia’s position on normalization contradicts its security interest in Iran, which is closest to Israel Of all the countries in the region, even more so than the Emirates and Bahrain.
It can be assumed that the decline and censorship in the case of the Saudi press is greater than in any other country on the moderate Sunni axis, because its contacts with Israel are conducted only in the secret channel.
Terrorists in peace
The current wave of terrorism is not accidental, because every year there is a land and Ramadan day. This is an effort to sabotage the positive atmosphere of normalization in light of the summit in the Negev. The perpetrators want to remind us that the Palestinians are not outside the politics of the Middle East and their opinions must be taken into account.
Media figures, educated politicians do so by verbal protest. However, Palestinian terrorist organizations that want to sabotage the process, choose the path of violence.
The timing of the current wave of terrorism is not accidental, since every year there is a land and Ramadan day. It is an effort to sabotage the positive normalization atmosphere of the summit, a reminder that the Palestinians are not outside of Middle East politics
Two terrorist attacks by Israeli Arabs and former ISIS volunteers and one by Fatah-Jenin were intended to provoke Israeli opposition to the normalization process. In the 1990s, Hamas tried to stop the Oslo process initiated by Israel and the PLO by incessant terrorist attacks. Now the equation is similar: as relations with Arab countries heat up, so will the attacks on local terrorism.
The goal now, similar to the Oslo period, is to deter Israel and create widespread popular opposition to the normalization process. The Israeli will draw the conclusion – there are negotiations, there are terrorist attacks, this is a package deal.
The attacks unfortunately mentioned two facts in the field of terrorism:
- One, that time bombs are circulating among us in the form of people who have volunteered for ISIS in the past, even when the “Islamic State” existed (2014-2017).
- The second is that close to the center of the country, in the Jenin area, there is a concentration of terrorist organizations that the Palestinian Authority does not overcome: Hamas operatives, Islamic Jihad, popular front and even Fatah operatives who do not surrender to Abu Mazen and oppose his way.
The combination of a peace summit and a wave of terrorist attacks may teach that terrorism will be wherever there is progress in the peace process and normalization in the region. Unfortunately, it seems that as was the case with the Oslo Accords, it is not inconceivable that the attacks will accompany the warming of relations with the “Abrahamic Accords” countries.
The goal, similar to the Oslo period, is to deter Israel and create widespread popular opposition to the normalization process. The Israeli will draw the conclusion – there are negotiations, there are terrorist attacks, this is a package deal
Presumably this week were but only the first buds for it. The possibility that terrorist attacks, as we saw this week, will also occur in the future in Arab countries that maintain normalization with Israel, such as the Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco, or against tourists from these countries who come to Israel, should not be ruled out.