The Minister of Economy, Nadia Calviño, together with the Minister of Haceenda, María Jesús Montero. /
The Executive will rush the deadline to send the update of the Stability Plan to Brussels, in which a sharp reduction in the GDP estimate is expected
Measurement to the millimeter, day by day, if not to the second. This is how the government’s economic ministries are working these days to assess the impact of the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine on growth forecasts that have been completely out of date.
The Executive updated its macroeconomic table in September of last year, even before the arrival of the omicron variant of the coronavirus.
After the sixth wave, and facing the disbelief of the main international organizations, he still maintained a firm defense of his estimate of GDP growth of 7% for this 2022. But the energy chaos and the escalation of inflation have forced the Economy technicians get down to earth to draw up the new Stability Plan that must be sent to Brussels before the end of April.
The document is expected to include a sound reduction in the forecasts to adapt them to the new reality. The European Commission managed for Spain a growth of 5.6% for this year (after revising the data one tenth upwards). But that estimate was released in early February, before the start of Russian bombing in Ukraine. Not even inflation was around two digits like now.
Projection Adjustment
With this scenario, everything indicates that in its new scenario the Executive will assume a severe cut in its forecasts. Taking into account the 5.6% estimated by the Commission at the beginning of February, analysts suggest that Economy will lower its projection from 7% to around 5%.
The problem is that the uncertainty to elaborate the data is absolute. The Minister of the Treasury, María Jesús Montero, recognized this week that it will take some time to verify the impact of the National Anti-Crisis Plan on the evolution, among others, of energy prices. Thus, the Ministry of Economy will rush the deadline to prepare its new forecasts as much as possible before sending them to Brussels, predictably on the last day of April.
From the Executive they recall that with this document, the economy ministers assess whether the Member States are on the right track to achieve the medium-term budget objectives.
To do this, they are based on two elements: the analysis of the structural balance and the expenditure reference value. At this point, the Ministry of Finance defends that, despite the increase in spending that direct aid and approved fuel rebates will entail, the deficit will continue to fall to around 5% this year.
Despite this, the country would enter 2023 exceeding the 3% required by European fiscal rules, now suspended due to the pandemic. For this reason, Montero has once again insisted this week on the need for these rigid regulations to be held in abeyance next year due to the economic impact of the war. Or, at least, that they be redefined to adapt to the new reality.