BARREL PRICE. The price of oil has already started to rise again on Monday, April 4. After the surge in March, should we expect a further rise in prices at the pump in France despite the fuel discount? Response elements.
[Mis à jour le 4 avril 2022 à 11h50] It’s not a big surprise, but the news is nothing to smile about. The price of a barrel of oil started to rise again this Monday, April 4 in the morning, 105 dollars barrel of Brent. After nearly 10 days of a slow decline, now the price of black gold is on the rise, a bad omen for the price at the pump. Despite the implementation last week of the fuel discount of 18 cents comes into force, the price per liter is offered on average at 2 euros everywhere in France. Outside Paris, this figure is more around 1.90 euros per litre. Down therefore, compared to the beginning of March when motorists observed a price per liter of around 2.25 euros. But in reality, this decline could be accompanied by a new increase this week. It is indeed the surge in the price of a barrel in March which is worrying and which could cause a further rise at the pump in France. The increase observed last week is already significant: +14 centimes on average for a liter of diesel or gasoline in France. The price per liter is ironed above the 2 euro mark, and the rise could well last. It should be remembered that the effects of the repercussions of the rise in the barrel of oil on the prices charged at service stations increase approximately 8 to 10 days after, in other words, next week. Motorists could therefore end up with a liter of diesel again above 2 euros, despite the Government’s fuel discount.
The concern does not fall to international authorities. One “global oil supply shock” is even feared by the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the repercussions could be dramatic on prices at the pump in France, despite this slight lull observed for three days. For the time being, the few discussions started for two weeks between Russia and Ukraine have not been successful, and the threat of a barrel at more than 150 dollars still hovering in the market. To avoid any hiccups in supply, another major concern of the institutions, the IEA plans to release more than 60 million. The organization even suggests that households reduce their consumption by favoring public transport, reducing their speed on the motorway by 10 km/h or even resorting massively to teleworking. Proof if it were needed of the seriousness of the situation, after a month of war in Ukraine.
Since the start of the week, we have seen a small respite with relative stagnation in prices. They dropped back below 100 dollars at the start of the week before rising again significantly. Prime Minister Jean Castex announced two fuel aids on Wednesday March 16 during the press conference presenting the resilience plan. First, a discount of 15 cents on fuel for all French people from April 1 and for 4 months. Then, more help from 35 centimes per liter of fishing fuel for fishermen hard hit by the price explosion. Aid valid from April 17 to July 31 to allow them to go back to sea in decent conditions.
- 7 mars 2022 : 139 dollars the barrel
- 8 mars 2022 : 128 dollars the barrel
- 10 mars 2022 : 110 dollars the barrel
- 15 mars 2022 : 98 dollars the barrel
- 16 mars 2022 : 100 dollars the barrel
- 17 mars 2022 : 106 dollars the barrel
- 18 mars 2022 : 109 dollars the barrel
- 21 mars 2022 : 111 dollars the barrel
- 22 mars 2022 : 118 dollars the barrel
- 23 mars 2022 : 116 dollars the barrel
- 24 mars 2022 : 120 dollars the barrel
- 25 mars 2022 : 120 dollars the barrel
- 28 mars 2022 : 113 dollars the barrel
- 29 mars 2022 : 112 dollars the barrel
- 30 mars 2022 : 111 dollars the barrel
- 31 mars 2022 : 109 dollars the barrel
- April 1, 2022: 103 dollars the barrel
- 4 avril 2022 : 105 dollars the barrel
The war in Ukraine casts doubt on the supply and price of energy. Aside from gas, one question remains central and arouses curiosity, what is the price per barrel of oil in this mess? Rising almost constantly since December 2021, the price of a barrel is now stable around 100 dollars, measured exactly at 105 dollars this Monday, April 4.
When you fill up with gas, the taxes represent 60% full. And these taxes, they, in spite of the war in Ukraine, fluctuate rather little. In particular the domestic consumption tax on energy products (TICPE), which simply represents the fourth revenue of the State, behind VAT, income tax and corporate tax. the fuel price leaving the refinery, it corresponds to 1/3 full of gasoline. Notably influenced by the price of a barrel of oil on international markets. Gas station attendants will have no choice but to pass on this increase to the price per litre.
Keep in mind that there is a lag time between the increase in the purchase price of a barrel of oil and the real impact on prices at the pump. This time varies 8 to 10 days about. In an attempt to curb this phenomenon, several aids have been put in place and distributed by the Government. In particular the inflation bonus granted to 38 million low-income households, as well as the revaluation of the mileage scale for 2.5 million tax households. The threat of a embargo European on Russian gas could cause the price of a barrel of oil to explode at 300 dollarsor even more.
According to INSEE, the Russia is the 3rd world producer of oil with 10 million barrels per day, of which 2 million transit to Europe. The Franceshe matters 9% of its crude oil since Russia. And the countries which could substitute the major role of Russia in the export of oil are not legion. Nigeria, Angola and Libya, for example, are not even meeting their own production targets. the Nigeria (9.6% of oil imports in France), theAlgeria (10.3%), and theSaudi Arabia (11.8%) remain crucial trading partners for France to whom the government could turn more to supply the country.
“We have significant strategic oil stocks which cover almost three months of consumption and allow us to deal with supply disruptions. The French are not at risk of running out of fuel or gas for heating in the coming months” declared the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Barbara Pompili on February 23. The European Union could even decide to release part of its strategic oil stocks to counter the rise in fuel prices in the face of this major market disruption. A decision taken only three times in history, for example after Hurricane Katrina in the United States.