To situate the presidential candidates, Le Parisien offers you a daily poll from Monday to Saturday – called “rolling poll” – carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, with our partner Franceinfo. Here’s what to remember this Thursday.
Le Pen still on the rise. 23% of voting intentions, or 2.5 additional points in two days. This is the score now expected for the RN candidate. Marine Le Pen is filling up more and more in her electorate of five years ago, since 75% of those polled who voted for her in 2017 intend to do so again this year. This is 20 points more than three weeks ago. She has never been so close to Emmanuel Macron, who obtains 26.5% of the voting intentions, almost 5 points less than in mid-March. His big meeting last Saturday at La Défense Arena therefore does not seem to have had any effect on the electorate concerning him.
Mélenchon is capping? The rebellious candidate, the only one who still seems able to qualify in the second round among all the left-wing candidates, obtains 16.5% of the voting intentions on Thursday. This is as much as two days ago, and very slightly higher than at the end of March. He too is on a favorable dynamic, but it seems less strong than that of Marine Le Pen.
Participation is stagnating. 72% of respondents say they would vote in the presidential election if the ballot took place today. This rate is stable compared to the day before, but up compared to the end of March (67%). However, he remains far from the 77.8% of voters who voted in the first round in 2017. Some of the registered voters could obviously decide to go to the polls in the last days of the campaign.
Le Pen and Macron very close in the event of a second round. In the event of a second round between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, the most likely scenario according to our survey, 53% of voters certain to speak would opt for the outgoing president, and 47% for his rival (the however, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 points). The gap between the two candidates has gradually narrowed, before stabilizing in recent days. It was 20 points three weeks ago.
Methodology: survey conducted online over the last three days, on a sample of more than 1,500 people questioned by Internet. The results presented show the accumulation of the interviews carried out over the last three days. This barometer tracks voting intentions and opinion on a day-to-day basis. Quota method. Source: Ipsos-Sopra Steria for Le Parisien-Aujourd’hui en France and Franceinfo.