The voting instructions for the second round of the presidential election could have a more decisive importance than in 2017… The gap in the polls has indeed narrowed considerably in recent days between the two favorites, the outgoing president and the candidate of the National rally. In our latest Ipsos-Sopra Steria barometer, Emmanuel Macron emerges at 26.5% of voting intentions against 23% for Marine Le Pen.
However, the famous “republican front” intended to block the far right appears to be cracked. On the right, even before the verdict of the first round, LR Valérie Pécresse (8.5%) has already lifted the veil. “I will say who I am voting for, but no instructions,” said candidate LR on France Inter this Friday morning. “I will clearly say what my vote will be and I will say the path that I think is good for France”, then specified the LR candidate on Twitter, without therefore mentioning a barrage against the far right.
It is a change in jurisprudence at LR which demonstrates that the party, “probably extremely divided”, “does not at all want to be taken like a herd of sheep to Emmanuel Macron, as was the case in 2017 “, immediately welcomed Marine Le Pen. It seems, in fact, that the unity of the LRs, which seemed to have been reconstituted a little at the time of the Congress, has lived.
On the left, the exception Jean-Luc Mélenchon
This suggests a difficult tomorrow for the Gaullist formation whose main leaders are to meet next Monday to determine their position. While some, like Damien Abad, the boss of LR deputies, will call for a vote for Macron if their candidate is eliminated, others, like Laurent Wauquiez, will defend “neither vote Le Pen nor vote Macron”.
On the left, the exception remains Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16.5%). If the communist Fabien Roussel (3%), the ecologist Yannick Jadot (5%) and the socialist Anne Hidalgo (2.5%) have already declared that they want to block the far right, the candidate of La France insoumise, him , reaffirms the position that he had taken in 2017 and which had then attracted many criticisms. If he is not in the second round, he will consult his supporters.
Five years ago, its activists voted 36.1% for a blank or null vote, 34.8% for a vote in favor of Emmanuel Macron and 29% for abstention. No option had been opened in favor of Marine Le Pen. Coming out of the silence to which she had been compelled, since her withdrawal from the race at the Élysée, for lack of sufficient sponsorship, Christiane Taubira has just called for Jean-Luc Mélenchon to vote in the first round, to “bar the road” on the far right.