Tribune. It’s no longer a surprise. For the second consecutive time, Marine Le Pen will participate in the second round of the presidential election. For the third time in the last five presidential elections, the radical right [terme consacré dans le champ des sciences sociales] will be able to access the Elysée. On April 21, 2002, amazement dominated. On April 23, 2017, banality loomed. On April 10, 2022, the ordinary prevailed.
The contours of a new political world are emerging. For the second time in a row, Marine Le Pen will find Emmanuel Macron in the second round. The contrast between “globalists” and “national”to use the words of the candidate of the National Rally (RN), between ” progressive ” and “nationalists”, to use the words of the outgoing President of the Republic, seems to have become the main line of confrontation in French political life at the national level. Imposing this new dualism was an objective assumed (and shared) by the two protagonists since 2017. The results of the first round brutally reminded the forces on the left, once again excluded from the second round, that they are on the way to achieving it. .
Threshold never reached
With more than 23% of the vote, Marine Le Pen achieves the best performance of a radical right candidate in the presidential election, progressing by almost 2 points compared to her score in 2017. Above all, by adding the approximately 7% brought together by Eric Zemmour (Reconquest!), the forces of the radical right cross 30%, a threshold that they had never reached in France, all types of polls combined. The first round of the 2022 presidential election is a new high point in the dynamics since the European elections of 2014, when the National Front lists had, for the first time, exceeded the 20% mark.
The dynamics of the radical right are based on three main movements, which indicate a form of complementarity between the candidacy of Marine Le Pen and that of Eric Zemmour. First movement, the accentuation of the domination of Marine Le Pen in its strongholds workers located in the north and in the east of the country. In 2017, Aisne, Pas-de-Calais and Haute-Marne were the three departments most favorable to Marine Le Pen; in 2022, it is still progressing in these departments to reach 39.3% (+ 3.6 points), 38.7% (+ 4.4) and 36.6% (+ 3.4) respectively. Second movement, significant transfers from the rural fraction of the Fillon electorate in 2017, especially in the west of the country. In Sarthe, Mayenne and Vendée, where François Fillon had systematically obtained more than 25% in 2017 and where Valérie Pécresse collapses around 5%, Marine Le Pen progresses respectively by 6.9 points (27.7%) , 5.5 points (22.4%) and 4.7 points (23.2%), while Eric Zemmour obtains between 5 and 6%. Third movement, the Zemmour attraction within the easy fraction of the classic right. The dynamic is particularly evident in the 16e arrondissement of Paris, where the candidate of Reconquête! obtains 17.5%, while Marine Le Pen remains marginalized at 5.8%.
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