A week after the “Edith Silman” event, the common understanding, in both camps, is that the current political map lives on borrowed time and that the situation is irreversible. This is the convention, and everything else – Rashi’s commentaries.
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The message that all senior government officials broadcast out in full compliance (“a painful but not final event, tightened lines and functioned even without a majority and with little legislation in the Knesset”) does not come to reflect reality but to produce it. And the reality is simple: Israel is a parliamentary democracy, and a parliamentary democracy can not function without a healthy and active parliament. After the loss of the majority in the Knesset, the coalition is in a state of paralysis, despite the efforts of the soul, and this state can not last for long. Thus far the diagnosis, and hence – an attempt by each side to locate the ways of dealing with it.
Most coalition parties are headed by veteran political foxes. They are well acquainted with the most basic rule, which says that an election atmosphere can cause the domino effect and really lead to elections, even if factually the discrimination can be prevented. Politicians live on headlines, the headlines influence the polls, and the polls lead to decision-making.
Therefore, in the days following Silman’s resignation, the two camps went into an uncompromising battle over the public consciousness: the coalition – in an attempt to stabilize the situation and stop the wave; The opposition – in an effort to blow up all the rock, after it managed to crack it.
Emergency psychologist
Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman was called up to the reserve as an emergency psychologist for the government, or rather initiated a sedative operation on his own. He invited for a close conversation the two members of the right who were marked in the Likud by firefighters in line.
He first met with Nir Orbach, and the minister’s office took care to spread a picture of the two smiling and shaking hands. Anyone who has spoken to Orbach in recent days has concluded that he is in no hurry to break the tools. And he is certainly not eager to become the equality voucher that will lead to the overthrow of the government and the run-up to the elections.
The next guest of honor at Lieberman’s office was Deputy Minister Avir Kara. Following this political-psychological round, Lieberman convened a meeting of his office’s management on Tuesday. Those who attended the meeting know that the minister conveyed calm and said that “we must work with full force and pace on the next budget, because the elections will not happen in the near future.”
Lieberman told senior officials of his office what he used to say in other forums as well: “If by the summer Netanyahu does not get 61 fingers to disperse the Knesset, he will close the plea deal and abandon all his friends, who will have to deal with the chaos that will ensue.”
While Lieberman acted at the governmental level to stop the bleeding, the heads of the coalition factions, who found themselves without the coalition chairman, gathered on Tuesday for a discussion “We turned where.” Line, Labor and Meretz representatives made it clear that “they have principles, and they have red lines, and no one is going to become a rubber stamp – even in the face of the situation.”
Nevertheless, the participants in the debate agreed that from now on the government must change its attitude towards the Knesset. In the absence of an automatic majority government legislation will be severely damaged. Therefore, bills on which there is no consensus will not go to the polls at all, which means that after the recess we will see far fewer white nights in the plenum.
In terms of the functioning of the coalition, upon its retirement, Silman became a kind of suspicious object, whose former members would have to neutralize each time anew, in any attempt to mobilize a majority and pass a law. Although this week she came out of hiding and mostly went back to talking to people, but her practical intentions in the field of voting are still vague.
At an event she attended on Monday, Silman sent a consistent but confused message. She told everyone that she had resigned for ideological reasons. In the same breath, however, she added that she would not be the 61st finger to dissolve the Knesset, but would work for the establishment of an alternative, right-wing government in the existing Knesset.
In the meantime, in dealing with Silman, it was decided (at Bennett’s initiative) to adopt the “Noche Derech” method, which was also used against Amichai Shikli, in the hope that it would be possible to reach specific agreements in each vote. With the tough Shikli the method did not really work. However, the coalition estimates that Silman is not expected to become Shekeli 2 and will not automatically vote with the opposition.
“It’s hard to see her blowing up the laws she herself promoted as chair of the coalition. “If we can not talk about her heart, we will probably be able to talk about logic, because it is clear that she is worried about her political future,” one of the coalition leaders, who has not yet been perceived as naive, told me.
But back to the fact that we started from: despite the optimistic messages and despite the maintenance actions in the coalition, the general atmosphere is that change is imminent. At present no one in the political system knows how to assess how the change will come. Estimates range from constructive distrust and the formation of an alternative government without elections, through a plea deal and Netanyahu’s resignation – to the dissolution of the Knesset in the coming months.
Ticking bomb
One thing is clear: the system has awakened, and everyone has begun to build plans for the near future, hoping to arrive ready for the moment of truth. Several political conferences took place this week under the guise of “raising a glass in honor of Passover.”
Even MK Eli Avidar convened his activists in the village of Maccabiah. Avidar insists that his operative goal is not to organize for the next election, but to bring about a situation in which the next election will not take place around the question “Yes Bibi or no Bibi.”
Eli Avidar (Photo: Mark Israel Salem)“It’s time to come and set the area on fire,” Avidar told his operatives. “We will remind all the liberal parties of the promises they made to the voter. Without the criminal defendant law – there is no point in getting to the polls.” Awakening winds have also been blowing in the Likud in recent days. Every ordinary Likudnik knows that this time the election will involve primaries. And the word primaries in the Likud has a permanent effect of a ticking bomb. All the more so – when it comes to the battle for return to power.
The most heard keyword in Wolf Fortress is “refresh.” After the loss and after the loss of power, Netanyahu does not stop repeating the mantra: “The Likud must bring the same lost seats that remained in the house or went to Saar and Levant. Therefore, the list needs to be refreshed.”
This week, Netanyahu invited former Minister Meir Sheetrit for a conversation. According to Likud members, this is Netanyahu’s attempt to build support for moderate right-wing circles, which are less sympathetic to the style of Shlomo Kari or Galit Distel Atbrian.
How serious is Netanyahu of his intention to conquer / bring back audiences that did not vote for the Likud in the last election rounds? To the point of a public reconciliation with Gilad Sharon, whom he recently blocked on his way to the Likud list.
This week, Netanyahu, accompanied by other members of the Likud faction, arrived at an emergency conference to save the Negev, hosted by Sharon and the mayor of Dimona, Likud member Bnei Bitton. Netanyahu spared no concessions to Sharon, who is perceived as a moderate politician who is aiming not only for the Knesset but also for the position of minister.
Danny Danon, initiator of the “Diplotech 2020” world conference (Photo: Mark Israel Salem)Danny Danon, who is determined to return to politics in general, also hosted a Passover conference this week and managed to fill a large hall. Quite a few senior members of his party also came to Danon’s conference, and even there the spirit of change changed.
The political system opens Passover week in a combative and tense mood, everything but festive. Players will take a break of a few days to take a deep breath – before returning to the battlefield. Then it will become clear what the direction is and how much time is left for the coalition until the big change comes.