South America Faces $7.3 Trillion Economic Hit from Noncommunicable Diseases and Mental Health Crisis
A new report from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) warns that noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health conditions will cost South America over $7.3 trillion in lost productivity and healthcare spending between 2020 and 2050, a figure equivalent to the entire annual GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean. The findings underscore a growing economic and health emergency demanding immediate action.
The report, titled “Major storm on the horizon: Health and macroeconomic burdens of noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions in South America,” was developed with analytical support from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and focuses on ten countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela.
According to PAHO Director Dr. Jarbas Barbosa, “These aren’t just health statistics, they are fiscal alarm bells.” He further emphasized that the escalating burden of NCDs and mental health has become “perhaps the worst economic disaster in health.”
A Looming Economic Threat
NCDs are already the leading cause of death in the Americas, claiming 6 million lives in 2021, with nearly 40% of those deaths occurring prematurely – in individuals under the age of 70. Cardiovascular diseases and cancer account for over half of these fatalities, while diabetes is rapidly increasing, leaving an estimated 43 million people without access to necessary treatment. The rising prevalence of mental health conditions is simultaneously straining already overburdened health systems and impacting workforce productivity.
The projected economic losses stem primarily from premature deaths, long-term disability, and reduced workforce participation. Country-specific losses are projected to range from $88 billion in Uruguay to a staggering $3.7 trillion in Brazil, representing up to 4.5% of some nations’ GDPs.
“For decades, policymakers in the Americas and beyond have tended to undervalue health,” stated Dr. David E. Bloom, Professor of Economics and Demography at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and lead author of the report. “But the world is increasingly recognizing that health has not only intrinsic, but also instrumental value.” He highlighted the report’s aim to provide PAHO and South American decision-makers with evidence to prioritize substantial increases in health sector budgets.
Lifestyle Factors Fuel the Crisis
The surge in NCDs is attributed to both aging populations and increased exposure to preventable risk factors. These include tobacco use, unhealthy dietary habits, physical inactivity, harmful alcohol consumption, and air pollution. Since 2000, adult obesity rates have risen by 67.5%, diabetes by 53.6%, and physical inactivity by 24.1%. Currently, 67.5% of adults in the Americas are overweight – significantly higher than the global average of 43.5% – and the region exhibits the highest levels of physical inactivity worldwide at 35.6%. Without intervention, these trends threaten further economic stagnation, increased inequality, and healthcare system collapse.
Progress and the Path Forward
Despite the concerning projections, some progress has been made. Mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases and cancer have declined since 2000 due to targeted policies and interventions. PAHO’s HEARTS initiative, implemented in 33 countries, has assisted over 5.7 million people in managing hypertension through primary care.
However, the report urges nations to accelerate efforts in three key areas:
- Prevention: Addressing major risk factors like tobacco use, poor diets, and sedentary lifestyles is crucial for preventing many conditions.
- Early Diagnosis and Treatment: Health systems must prioritize early detection and swift action to improve survival rates and economic participation.
- Financing and Global Commitment: National health budgets must prioritize NCDs and mental health, and fiscal policies – such as taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages – can generate funding for reforms while simultaneously improving public health.
“Healthy diets and regular physical activity are medicine against NCDs,” Dr. Barbosa emphasized. “We can prevent up to 40% of cancers by reducing tobacco use, improving diets, and promoting active lifestyles. And we can eliminate cervical cancer with vaccines, early screening, and treatment of precancerous lesions.”
PAHO is actively working to expand access to essential medicines and diagnostics through initiatives like the PAHO Revolving Funds, while also strengthening health systems to broaden coverage and integrate NCD and mental health services. Currently, hypertension is controlled in only 36% of those affected, and only 58% of individuals with diabetes receive effective treatment.
A critical opportunity to address this challenge will arise at the Fourth High-Level Meeting on NCDs and Mental Health in September during the United Nations General Assembly. Governments, civil society, academia, and the private sector are expected to reaffirm their commitments and adopt a new political declaration.
PAHO is urging all stakeholders to prioritize health within economic strategies, promote healthy lifestyles, strengthen fiscal and regulatory policies, invest in primary care, and expand mental health services. “Health is the foundation of development, security, and prosperity,” Dr. Barbosa concluded. “Tackling NCDs and improving mental health gives us a clear path to a better future. But it requires bold, coordinated, data-driven policy. The time to act is now.”
