Six days before the second round of the presidential election, is the ballot already played? Emmanuel Macron appears in any case to be the favorite, according to our daily Ipsos Sopra Steria poll for Le Parisien, Radio France and France Télévisions, dated this Monday, even if things can still change.
The gap stabilizes. Since the first round, the results of our daily barometer have changed little in the balance of power between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. This Monday, the gap between the outgoing president and his rival RN is given at 12 points, with an estimated margin of error of 3.2 points. This places Emmanuel Macron as the favorite for this second round. It should be noted that among those certain to vote, 13% expressed no intention to vote.
Less abstentionist rebels? Of course, you have to be careful with the voice transfers. But trends, all the same, are emerging over time. It would thus seem that the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon say they are less abstaining as the second round approaches. They were 56% on April 15 not to express any intention to vote between Macron and Le Pen. They are now 46%. At the same time, reports in favor of Emmanuel Macron increased by ten points.
Macron big favourite. 72% of voters plan to vote, according to Ipsos. This rate has been almost stable for several days. If it became reality next Sunday, it would be less than in the first round (73.7%) and less than in the second round in 2017 (74.6%). The last days of the campaign, marked in particular by the great debate between the two rounds on Wednesday, could still move the lines.
Macron deemed the winner by six out of ten respondents. 59% of French respondents predict a victory for the candidate president. This is (logically) the case for 87% of respondents who intend to vote for him, but also for 26% of those who intend to slip a Le Pen ballot into the ballot box.
Methodology: survey conducted online over the last three days, on a sample of more than 1,500 people questioned by Internet. The results presented show the accumulation of the interviews carried out over the last three days. This barometer tracks voting intentions and opinion on a day-to-day basis. Quota method. Source: Ipsos-Sopra Steria for Le Parisien-Aujourd’hui en France and Franceinfo.