In 2017, Europe spent nine months holding its breath. The year had started with the inauguration of Donald Trump, and it was almost impossible to meet a diplomat, an analyst or a senior civil servant who was the least bit optimistic in Brussels. After the results of the referendum on Brexit, that of the Netherlands on the Association Agreement with Ukraine, that of Hungary or the suicide consultation which cost Matteo Renzi his career in Italy, the hour was to gloom.
Everything related to Europe ended badly and the continent was playing its own future on three essential dates: the elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany. We had the feeling, rational or not, that at least one of these three deadlines was going to end in an accident or a misfortune. It was not the case.
The Eurosceptic and Europhobic extreme right, that of Wilders, Le Pen or the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland), succeeded in setting the terms of the debate, in influencing the agenda, in pushing all the parties to toughen up, it grew and gained massive representation, but it did not come to power.
Europhile policies, ideas, coalitions prevailed, and an unexpected wave swept through. The 27 were not divided in the negotiation with the United Kingdom, quite the contrary. The most illiberal voices gave up on their rhetoric of rupture, and even if the EU did not undertake the reforms it needed, it ignored the debates which divided it and wanted to believe that the worst was over.
All eyes are on Ukraine
The world of 2022 is quite different. In France, the previous presidential campaign had been marked by nervousness, fear and constant anxiety. The young Emmanuel Macron was the favorite, but the Le Pens had been knocking on the door of the Élysée for two decades. The victory of the candidate of what was still the National Front was unthinkable, but not impossible.
Brussels was on hot coals, with one eye still on Berlin, and when Macron came out on top and celebrated the results of the second round in front of the Louvre pyramid, wrapped in the starry blue flag and with the European anthem basically, the relief was indescribable.
In the 2022 campaign, the stakes are the same, but the process has been different. Today in the EU there are very different visions of values, rules, ideologies and aspirations. There are liberal Member States, others caught in authoritarian excesses, some are in favor of greater integration, others want less Europe, voices are being raised to demand immediate enlargement, others still won’t accept it for at least a generation. But history teaches that it is not impossible to reconcile what, seen from the outside, seemed irreconcilable.
That said, this French election campaign may be of great importance, but nobody pays much attention to it. All eyes in Europe, and much of the rest of the world, are on Ukraine. The polls were so favorable to the incumbent president that this election passed into the background, or was even considered a mere formality.
Le Pen votes for the “Europe of nations”
In Brussels, everyone assumed that Macron would win, and since January, when France took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, the only discussions were about who would be the opponent easily beaten. in the second round. And then everything changed.
Suddenly, the cold sweats returned. We are no longer thinking that Macron could be dealing with a strong party: Le Pen, once considered negligible like the Zemmour phenomenon, could even win.
French elections are always of capital importance in the Union. When Paris sneezes, Europe catches a cold. A victory for Le Pen would be an unprecedented change, and for that there is no parachute. Marine Le Pen has often said that she does not believe in the EU, but in a “Europe of nations”.
That Hungary supports Le Pen is one thing. Whether Poland or Slovenia sympathize with his vision of the world, or whether dozens of MEPs promote it, still matters. But if one of the locomotives of integration stops, or even begins to turn back, and even on a minimalist program the effects would be considerable.
Germany in retreat
When Macron conquered the Élysée in 2017, he was carried by an enthusiastic wave, which contrasted with the cynicism, resignation or calm of his partners, starting with Germany. Like any French president, he wanted to refound, transform, revolutionize, but he soon realized that in Europe things did not work that way.
He had ideas, a message, but no audience to listen to or follow. During the last year of his term, he positioned himself as the main character, he was in all the fights, all the parties, at all the tables. He proposes, he proposes and proposes again, but often without understanding or respecting the interests and preferences of his interlocutors. But, today, the situation could be favorable to him. Germany remains reluctant, slow.
Olaf Scholz is overwhelmed by the situation, in particular because of his energy dependence. But a transformation of Europe is at work: we are talking about its geopolitical birth, of a Defense Union, we could do what we have been postponing for decades. And there, Macron, who launched his agenda at the Sorbonne five years ago, feels at ease.
“Generally speaking, foreign policy has never been one of the main issues in French presidential campaigns, explains Tara Varma, head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. But since August we have seen the retreat from Afghanistan, the Aukus pact [entre l’Australie, les États-Unis et le Royaume-Uni]which ended in a snub for France, the events in Mali, the expulsion of the French ambassador to Bamako in February 2022, and of course the war in Ukraine.”
When Macron assumed the presidency, the European powers were dispersed, because of elections or the rise of populism. They formed governments or defeated them, with impossible coalitions (Italy) or motions of censure (Spain). Not anymore. The window of opportunity may be narrow, but it is exceptional, with popular expectations, political stability and reasonable unity in the face of obvious external challenges or enemies. It’s now or never.