Nothing or almost nothing seems to stand in the way of Sweden and Finland joining NATO, if the parliaments of the two countries so decide. A poll published on Thursday 28 April indicates that 65% of Finns are in favor of it. Their foreign minister, Pekka Haavisto (Greens), warns against a “NATO option” which would become purely theoretical if it were not activated in the current circumstances of the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces.
“Very Dangerous Adventure”
In Sweden too, the majority is in favour, but less clearly (51%). The Social Democrats in power, in full internal discussion, have promised to seal their decision by May 24. The Left Party (V) demands that the question be put to a referendum. However, the path seems well traced, for a joint request from the two Nordic countries, with the NATO summit in Madrid on June 29 and 30 as the horizon.
→ REREAD. War in Ukraine: the Scandinavians ever closer to the Atlantic Alliance
But now a grain of sand from Croatia (member of the EU since 2013 and NATO since 2009) threatens to stop everything. For their accession, the two Nordic countries indeed need the ratification of the 30 current member states of the Alliance. Social Democratic President of Croatia, Zoran Milanovic, sees it as a way to advance the « protection » of the Croatian minorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which he considers“vital national interest”.
On Tuesday April 26, in front of the press, the Croatian leader qualified the process of accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO as“very dangerous adventure”. Above all, he laid down this condition in the form of blackmail: “As far as I am concerned, let them join NATO… But as long as the question of the electoral law in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not resolved, as long as the Americans, the English, the Germans, if they can and want it, will not have obliged (Bosnian officials) to change the electoral law within the next six months and to give Croats their fundamental rights, the Sabor (Croatian parliament, Editor’s note) will not ratify anyone’s membership in NATO. » Accustomed to outings that clash, Zoran Milanovic had to apologize in January, after designating Ukraine as one of the most corrupt countries in the world.
Demining operation
General elections are indeed scheduled in Bosnia and Herzegovina on 2 October. The local Croats fear losing seats in the new governance to the benefit of the two other ethnic groups, Bosnians and Serbs. The day after the Croatian leader’s declaration, the conservative Prime Minister, Andrej Plenkovic (HDZ), provoked him by asking him to show if he was a ” badass “, by going directly to veto NATO in front of US President Joe Biden instead of hiding behind a non-ratification by Parliament. Andrej Plenkovic leads a very active diplomacy within the EU to promote the interests of his country.
Foreign Minister Gordan Grlic Radman (HDZ) did his best to contain the fire started by Zoran Milanovic, saying on Wednesday 27 April that Finland and Sweden have the support “undisputed and unqualified” from Croatia. The Secretary General of NATO, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg, also made reassuring remarks the next day. He recalled Thursday, April 28 that Finland and Sweden, “closest partners” of the Alliance, “are welcome in NATO if they decide to apply”. The leader even advances the possibility of« arrangements » concerning the security of the two countries, until the accession process is completed. An important point to remove the reluctance that persists in the opinion of the two countries.